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Long Range Thread 11.0

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:22 am

@Quietace wrote:Even if transient wow...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Eps_t810

Well even if by some miracle it did snow at the end of this week, this would pretty much melt it all in a day.

IHTW
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:59 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Even if transient wow...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Eps_t810

Well even if by some miracle it did snow at the end of this week, this would pretty much melt it all in a day.

IHTW

I am ready! Break out the shorts. I am not that strongly believing we see a snowfall on Friday, at least not for coastal areas but we will see. After that I would like spring please and by this map looks like it could be here in another week or two.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:19 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Even if transient wow...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Eps_t810

Well even if by some miracle it did snow at the end of this week, this would pretty much melt it all in a day.

IHTW

We will see how it verifies.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:34 am

We are pretty much done with winter after next weekend. Friday may be our last shot.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:07 am

GFS has a storm and just S&E of the area
12Z Today
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16

0Z
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19


12Z yesterday
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20

Can you say progress?? Maybe last shot at winter indeed with the forecast for absolute torch - we shall see

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:25 am

Theres a third system behind the Friday one that needs to be watched as well

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:39 am

cmc continues to be a big hit...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 I_nw_EST_2016022912_101
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 I_nw_EST_2016022912_105
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 I_nw_EST_2016022912_108
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:50 am

@sroc4 wrote:Theres a third system behind the Friday one that needs to be watched as well
here is the gfs 12z today...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:53 am

cmc and it's not done yet
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gem_asnow_neus_18
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:59 am

ukie is firther north from 00z. I know there is a 12 hr difference but clearly north of 00z...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 GZ_D5_PN_096_0000
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 GZ_D5_PN_096_0000
all winter models have under modeled WAR and have trended north and west as we get closer. plus it is now early march and the PV does not usually drop as far south as say January. I think we are in a good spot right now
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:12 pm

cmc total snowfall...lol
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gem_asnow_neus_21
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:13 pm

[quote="algae888"]cmc and it's not done yet
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gem_asnow_neus_18

Looks about right

CNJ coast and LI win. No surprises here, and no reason for it to change now.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:16 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:cmc and it's not done yet
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gem_asnow_neus_18

Looks about right

CNJ coast and LI win. No surprises here, and no reason for it to change now.

Agree. CMC will verify.
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:19 pm

here are the gefs 12z 00z and 12z yesterday...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs-ens_mslpa_us_19
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs-ens_mslpa_us_21
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs-ens_mslpa_us_23
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:22 pm

wow that is an unusually tight clustering of members 4+ days out....
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:26 pm

navgem which is usually very progressive comes in all amped up.. do not have all panels yet..
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Navgem_z500a_us_15
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:27 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:cmc and it's not done yet
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Gem_asnow_neus_18

Looks about right

CNJ coast and LI win. No surprises here, and no reason for it to change now.

Yep, CP, this would be the final "kick in the head" (from that old Dean Martin song) for the HV.NYC gets a foot while we barely break two inches,LOL!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:14 pm

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4100815092001/cold-threat-for-snow-returns-t

Bernie Rayno this morning..
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:15 pm

euro at hr 72 looks much better than yesterday at same time. pv 100+ miles east and looks to moving out quicker. low further north..
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:20 pm

euro still a miss but it came further north...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 5 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5
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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:26 pm

any reason to believe the cmc at all?? has it ever been correct?
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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:28 pm

Lakewood Weather: Fridays Storm, out to sea??? http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/02/fridays-storm-out-to-sea.html?spref=tw
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:32 pm

@jake732 wrote:any reason to believe the cmc at all?? has it ever been correct?
it's on it's own right now as most guidance is s/e of it. however good trends today esp. the pv quicker to move out on all guidance. let's give it until 00z Wednesday that's when s/w will be fully sampled
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:49 pm

Does anybody have a more detailed track for the next 48 hours for the Euro? I'm wondering whether or not I should cling to hope.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 29, 2016 2:05 pm

The Euro is a bumb by Carolinas and though OTS, it took quite a jog north on its way out. I supposed I could get into one more storm as long as the snow doesn't sit around making parking on the street a nightmare for weeks. But sounds like a torch is coming, are we talking 60s 70s after the 10th?
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