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Long Range Thread 11.0

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 29, 2016 2:17 pm

@TheAresian wrote:Does anybody have a more detailed track for the next 48 hours for the Euro? I'm wondering whether or not I should cling to hope.

hey did you watch the bernie rayno video I posted...he gives us a little hope...not writing anything off yest...and that was this mornings post I believe he does a later day post as well..
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 29, 2016 2:48 pm

The trends have been great so far today and as I said in a post here yesterday that we have not seen our storms until 72 hours out. Is it on the table absolutely so is OTS but teh trends are very encouraging even at the H% levels from what my little snow eye can see.

And could we get the final one two punch? Euro says okay wave 1 then 2? CMC agrees as well as a clipper heads to the coast and juices up 2-3"- OP runs here so we shall see

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7


Last edited by amugs on Mon Feb 29, 2016 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 29, 2016 3:06 pm

Wow this baby looks good I want more snow come on storm

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 29, 2016 3:18 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Wow this baby looks good I want more snow come on storm


noo. don't say that..dont jinx it...lol Shocked Shocked Very Happy
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:41 pm

this from nws disco...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN...STILL DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF
ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW. ANYTIME YOU ARE RELYING ON
ENERGY INTERACTING WITH/EJECTING FROM A CUTOFF LOW THERE IS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL. ADDED TO THIS...THIS IS IN A
REGION NOT WELL SAMPLED BY RADIOSONDES...AND THIS INCREASES THE
UNCERTAINTY EVEN FURTHER. IF MODEL TIMING IS ANYWHERE NEAR
CORRECT...THE ENERGY IN QUESTION SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST
SOMEWHERE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CERTAINTY SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER THAT POINT.

FOR NOW...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE
COASTAL LOW
...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A DEFINITE HIT (THE
CANADIAN) TO MISSING WELL TO THE SOUTH (VARIOUS GFS/ECMWF/CMC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THE TWO THINGS THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN...IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG HIGH TO THE NW/N OF THE AREA
THAT P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW....AND THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS.
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW OVER THE SW 1/2
OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THROUGHOUT ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT
IS TO SOON TO SPECIFY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT THIS STORM WILL HAVE ON
THE TRI-STATE
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:56 pm

lee goldberg said the storm is going to be our south with maybe light snow or flakes for fri now here we go again

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:11 pm

Just to show you some differences.  Like Al has said we have to hope the PV moves out of the way othewrwise it will supress the storm track to our S.  We need the area of confluence (Area where wind flow comes together along an axis oriented normal to the flow in question) to shift north of where it is currently modeled on the GFS and Euro.  Here are the differences on the Euro from lastnights 00z to todays 12z.  I like to use the 540 line because its easy to spot on these maps when looking at the trends.  Notice how on the 00z(first image) the 540 line runs through Long Island.  However; the 12z(second image) it shifted about 25-35miles north.  Now it was nice to see but we have to see how far if at all it continues to trend.  We need it to trend another 50-100miles north.  

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Ecmwf_14
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Ecmwf_15


For comparison look at the CMC.  Confluent zone(540line) is about 100miles north of the Euro. Up along the N Massechusets border.  This allows heights to raise out ahead of our storm brining the surface LP up the coast instead of east OTS.  How fast the PV can move out will determine how much snow if at all makes it into the area.  I am def still in the further south soln as of now.  Lets see what happens by Tues night/Wed morn.  

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Cmc_z511

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:24 pm

And here is the GFS..in between the Euro and CMC with the 540line...passing through the CT/Ma boarder

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Gfs_z512

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:46 pm

Great post SROC. There is a lot at work of course here but lots of time - heck teh gfs showed no storm and now we have one only 100 miles away which we know is absolutely a needle prick in the distance of this set up. Big changes in the runs and good trends I might say. We wait till tomorrow 12Z and 0Z runs to see what is what 72 hours before peeps.


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 29, 2016 7:35 pm

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Februa10

The GFS and EURO are not phasing the piece of northern s/w that tries to come down as the PV lifts north. This is key. Without a phase, the southern wave stays south and brings scattered snow showers at best to the area Friday.

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Februa11


The CMC is doing exactly that. Once the phase occurs, H5 closes off and the surface low rides up the coast. 

In order to achieve a phase I think one of two things needs to happen:

1. If the PV lifts north faster than currently modeled that will allow heights to rise ahead of the southern short wave. This gives it room to move north and a phase with the northern short wave will at least be easier to happen. 

2. OR...we rely on the ridge in the west to stay amplified over the Rockies to help amplify the trough over the eastern US. 

We just need one not two of these to happen. I will say...I don't think the CMC is completely wrong. However, I am still favoring the southern slider at this time. But as Scott pointed out we're seeing subtle trends that may lead to larger shifts north in future runs.

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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:27 pm

Am I crazy that I think the cmc will verify??
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:19 pm

@jake732 wrote:Am I crazy that I think the cmc will verify??

Maybe Wink

I was going to have a Mo Mo out tomorrow but I'm just going to regurgitate what I said above. I do want to have a March outlook out. I'll do it next Monday when we'll unequivocally be above normal again

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:20 pm

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Image.jpg.0e398eaef6def4f0e4006790202f3fee

NAM SAYS CMC IS ONTO IT AT 84

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Post by Radz Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:12 pm

@amugs wrote:Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Image.jpg.0e398eaef6def4f0e4006790202f3fee

NAM SAYS CMC IS ONTO IT AT 84

Eh looks more like the GFS to me, weak over running from the northern energy while the southern energy slides OTS and develops a low off NC...
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Post by Snow88 Tue Mar 01, 2016 12:49 am

CMC is ots with the coastal. Same with Navgem.

They do have the overunning though
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:58 am

I think the overrunning aspect of the storm is real. A quick 1-3 inches maybe. At this point it may be safe to say the big coastal storm idea will not come to fruition

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Post by rb924119 Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:58 am

Please delete this lol


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:00 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by rb924119 Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:59 am

DID ANYBODY SEE THE EURO 2mT FORECAST FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY?!!!! FORGET SPRING, IT'S FULL-ON SUMMER!! 70-80 degrees for a majority of members on this forum. UNREAL!!!!

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Screen10

Not gonna lie, with how this Winter was, I was honestly ready for this a month ago. Somebody capture this, because this will likely be the only time EVER that those words will come from me lmfao

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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:39 am

@rb924119 wrote:DID ANYBODY SEE THE EURO 2mT FORECAST FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY?!!!! FORGET SPRING, IT'S FULL-ON SUMMER!! 70-80 degrees for a majority of members on this forum. UNREAL!!!!

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Screen10

Not gonna lie, with how this Winter was, I was honestly ready for this a month ago. Somebody capture this, because this will likely be the only time EVER that those words will come from me lmfao

Rest assured Mikey, Math, has this captured. He will be sure to recall this 8yrs from now when you least expect it..lol Love ya Mikey tongue

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:51 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:DID ANYBODY SEE THE EURO 2mT FORECAST FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY?!!!! FORGET SPRING, IT'S FULL-ON SUMMER!! 70-80 degrees for a majority of members on this forum. UNREAL!!!!

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Screen10

Not gonna lie, with how this Winter was, I was honestly ready for this a month ago. Somebody capture this, because this will likely be the only time EVER that those words will come from me lmfao

Rest assured Mikey, Math, has this captured.  He will be sure to recall this 8yrs from now when you least expect it..lol  Love ya Mikey tongue

This has shades of March 2012 in Chicago when they had 8 days above 80 degree days in a 9 day period, the one day that didn't go above it was 78.

We went 168 straight days last year without hitting 70, which wasn't until April 15th.

Can I change my winter grade from an F to a G if this verifies. IHTW
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:35 am

Scott, LOL!!!! Of course back in March 2012, I did a few extended bike rides to take advantage of the warm weather. On 3/22/12, I rode my bike round trip from Bellerose to about LaGuardia Airport (over 20 miles total). LGA hit 76 degrees and CPK hit 78 degrees, a record high. When I got home that afternoon, I saw buds on trees, that's right buds in MARCH!

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 9:52 am

Lets see what 12Z runs bring today for this storm - will the NW trend continue as it did for all storms this winter??
After this weekend we say good bye to winter or what there was of it.
NAM H5 looks very interesting -

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Namconus_z500_vort_neus_27

closes teh low off teh VA Capes and heads NE - HP slides out faster - that is key - if this does indeed happen then ..............


Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:04 am

If the nam phases 12 hrs earlier it prob comes north

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:53 pm

POSTED BY AL (algae888 ):

the warm up looks temporary on gefs...
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_65
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 6 Gfs-ens_mslpa_namer_65
dare I say -nao  but to little to late...

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by HectorO Tue Mar 01, 2016 4:51 pm

Could almost hit 70 next Thursday it looks like.
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