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Long Range Thread 11.0

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WOLVES1
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:ready for control, been 3 straight runs now that shown at least 6+.

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 15 Contro10

Okayy..... no more west please, Miss Euro! affraid
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:29 pm

12z Paa gfs is a crusher 1-2" le from ne nj thru li
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:52 pm

On another note ..
Latest values:
Nino 1.2: +1.2 (+0.2)
Nino 3: +1.6 (-0.2)
Nino 3.4: +1.8 (-0.1)
Nino 4: +1.5 (+0.1) 
This nino is still strong. Going to be hard to flip to nina. Maybe nuetral enso next winter
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:57 pm

I cannot find para gfs on wxbell huh
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Post by Taffy Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:01 pm

My sister in Boston is slated for 12.9".....I wouldn't mind a bit of that. Actually I want it all.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:02 pm

algae888 wrote:12z Paa gfs is a crusher 1-2" le from ne nj thru li

where did u see this Al, and I am confused I thought the para gfs replaced the old gfs last year? There are still 2?
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:21 pm

[quote="jmanley32"]
algae888 wrote:12z Paa gfs is a crusher 1-2" le from ne nj thru li

where did u see this Al, and I am confused I thought the para gfs replaced the old gfs last year?  
http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160316%2012%20UTC¶m=precip_ptot&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:31 pm

I have that feeling again Cnj coast may do well again.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:33 pm

A new thread and blog will be up between 10 and 11pm tonight. The threat for a winter storm has been on models for awhile. Now it looks like models want to key in on Sunday into Monday for a potential Godzilla

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:A new thread and blog will be up between 10 and 11pm tonight. The threat for a winter storm has been on models for awhile. Now it looks like models want to key in on Sunday into Monday for a potential Godzilla

Giddy up Frank

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by Joe Snow Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:A new thread and blog will be up between 10 and 11pm tonight. The threat for a winter storm has been on models for awhile. Now it looks like models want to key in on Sunday into Monday for a potential Godzilla

Giddy up Frank


Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 15 Giddy_10
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:39 pm

In the Navy you can sail the............................

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 15 Image.thumb.gif.c5869bd6f015a68b8a6b1e81332e88dd

aint sailin no place around these neck of the woods if this sucker verifies - BOOYAAAAHHHHH!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:48 pm

Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.

The 6z and 18z were both crappy, they are the off-runs as I like to call them. I stick with the 12z and 00zs.

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:06 pm

does the Nam not come out soon?
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.
gefs were slightly east. total acc precip
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 15 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_18
18z
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 15 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19
12z
.4le line through nyc at 108hrs on ensembles is still pretty darn good
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.
ens west of 18z op
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Post by hyde345 Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:35 pm

There is no way I'm being sucked into this and get disappointed once again. If models are showing a storm with a benchmark track late Friday then I may get excited but not until then.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:57 pm

DGEX hammers us in its latest run, FWI. cheers
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Post by Snowfall Wed Mar 16, 2016 9:13 pm

It can over produce and give a solid 1 foot area wide and some locally higher amounts in and around the NYC area just a hunch

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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 17, 2016 1:33 pm

Next week back into the 60s. Amazing!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 3:14 pm

LOL, if we get a Godzilla and then warmth and a big rainstorm guess what issue we go have then!
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:17 am

this is nuts for asking but after this weekend is it officially over? i'm assuming it is but for long terms sake..we've had crazy march's and aprils
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:59 am

I am soooooo ready to just give in at this point.  That said don't look now....April 1st-5th??????? Wouldn't that be a cruel April fools

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 15 Eps_0013
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 15 Gefs_011

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:21 am

Scott - April 6th Nor'easter - April 1982 redux??? - That woudl be teh ultimate kick in teh groin IMO. Gosh darn Nino just won't put it to rest where the H was this when we wanted it - bite me.

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