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Long Range Thread 11.0

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:21 am

12z gfs lol. New run new solution. It's amazing how it shifts hundreds of miles from its previous run
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:00 pm

Well maybe the GFS is on to something as the UKie also shifted East. Cmc is basically a cold frontal passage. Hard to tell what precipitation would be on the UKie looking at the 24-hour panels
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:16 pm

I'm hearing the GEFS is also south and east like the operational it looks like a snow event for the supposed cutter
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 26, 2016 2:11 pm

@algae888 wrote:I'm hearing the GEFS is also south and east like the operational it looks like a snow event for the supposed cutter

12z GEFS looks like a Miller B set up. Primary makes it up to about SW Pa, then a secondary pops around SE Va/NE NC and takes a BM track from there with HP building in. Much different from the EPS. EPS has a few member trying to do something like that but has a second wave, which GEFS does not, on its heals that ends up around the BM on the 4th whereas the GEFS transfer idea happens 24hrs earlier.

Some encouranging signs, but need to see some support elsewhere.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:14 pm

Ukie has a nice coastal look as well

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

Now IF the PV does in fact split or become majorly dislodged then the end of next week but more so the following week can be like last March as the STJ is still pumping with a weakening Nino overall we have window of opportunity before we set the clocks ahead.

GEFS - PV showing a major dislodging then splitting and not 10-12  days  out as it usually did all winter long

Link to see the progression of the PV - why the H did this not happen in early FEB? Better late than never and if this happens on another note cold, raw, wet & white March.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2016022612&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=792


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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:40 pm

@amugs wrote:Ukie has a nice coastal look as well

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

Now IF the PV does in fact split or become majorly dislodged then the end of next week but more so the following week can be like last March as the STJ is still pumping with a weakening Nino overall we have window of opportunity before we set the clocks ahead.

GEFS - PV showing a major dislodging then splitting and not 10-12  days  out as it usually did all winter long

Link to see the progression of the PV - why the H did this not happen in early FEB? Better late than never and if this happens on another note cold, raw, wet & white March.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2016022612&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=792


Hmm Mugs.  Here was the 00z UKIE with the cutter idea:

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000


Vs todays 12z Which has a similar look to it as did the 12z GEFS..a transfer of energy to the coast idea.  Too bad we dont have the inbetween panels:

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

EPS mean still cuts with a few members trying to transfer. EPS likes the 4-5th idea better. Euro op was close to this time frame also. I need more to see some consistency and need to get under 5days before I get too excited.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:25 pm

18z GFS goes from a driving rainstorm to a snowstorm with blizzard conditions for nyc n and w - March 3rd storm.
LP rides along the front it looks

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:27 pm

Would be 4-8 nyc metro and 6-12 LHV and NWNJ verbatim - lets see it change to OTS then a huge cutter that tracks over Slippery Rock in western PA!

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:31 pm

mugs just saw that it's happy hour 18z gfs lol. para GFS also has similar idea and CMC hinted at it a few days ago about a secondary wave forming along the front. euro operational is still a cutter and the blizzard for Chicago lol. but it's on its own all of today's guidance shifted East
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:33 pm

one reason why the GFS may be onto something is because of the war. the front can move only so far and if that Atlantic Ridge slows it down I could see a wave forming along the front
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:36 pm

@algae888 wrote:one reason why the GFS may be onto something is because of the war. the front can move only so far and if that Atlantic Ridge slows it down I could see a wave forming along the front

Wouldn't it be nice if the WAR actually decided to help us out for one storm instead of hinder us. We can always dream. As Blondie said dreaming is free.
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Post by WeatherBob Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:46 pm

The 18Z GFS is putting out between 3 to 4 in of rain . 2 to 3 in liq and about 1 in frozen. The rivers are at bankfull right now. Heavy rain, snow then flooding. I hope not!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 27, 2016 8:00 am

After Wednesdays front pushes through the area next week, cold air will follow behind it and another storm system may potentially be on its heels to affect us on Friday. With cold air in place, all we need is the right storm track to get a winter storm. 

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_27

Too bad 500mb looks on the ugly side. The NAO remains positive and the PNA is positive quickly going neutral due to the expansive NPAC trough. If the ridge in the west can hang on, I feel confident we'll see a winter storm next Friday. But right now H5 isn't supportive of one.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 27, 2016 9:10 am

Very ugly pattern shown on the ensembles after March 7th. 

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Eps_z500a_noram_49

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 27, 2016 10:16 am

The cold was on the wrong side of the globe during February. The Kara Sea / Western Arctic blocks were supposed to be a -NAO. The Strat PV disallowed that from happening so we were left with transient cold shots and mean storm tracks west of the region. The STJ was basically uncontrollable. 

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Compday.EAEt0i2oba

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 27, 2016 11:46 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Very ugly pattern shown on the ensembles after March 7th. 

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Eps_z500a_noram_49
That is a large positive temperature departure look...Probably will have impressive Tmax's during this period for March standards.

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:00 pm

wow you can't really make this up. the first wave passes to our north and the second wave bombs out to our South and we miss out on both on the GFS and CMC. North Carolina and southern Virginia get 1 to 2 feet of snow on today's 12z gfs. really!!! I just have to laugh. whatever can go wrong will go wrong
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:14 pm

The ukie is further east with the first wave and further north with the second one. the positive to take from today's runs with the second system is that the trends have been Northwest. so hopefully this will adjust to the north. also the position of the polar vortex and its associated cold has also been over modeled too far south this year. again so hopefully that will adjust North also
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Post by Isotherm Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:39 pm

Early vortex destruction with a major warming culminating in a FW event is likely around March 5th. It's too bad we didn't achieve this a month ago as it would have significantly helped the February forecasts. The good news is it's still sufficiently early to provide some benefit. The low heights crashing into the West Coast around D10 is a direct response of the anomalous EA MT spike and subsequent AAM surge / jet extension. Tropical forcing cell shifts eastward in the medium term, so not too much of a surprise, but we should be seeing the Arctic/ATL height rises occurring concurrently due to stratospheric circulation changes. Thus, even if we have some Pacific destructive interference it doesn't look like we're heading into a furnace early spring pattern anytime soon. Worst case - absent a change in exogenous forcing - we're blocky through early April.



In the near term, nothing really has changed. March 4th-5th is our best opportunity since January for a decent event. That's a legitimate -NAO March 3-5 as well (-1 on EPS) with the concomitant PV lobe in Quebec. As others have noted, deamplification of upstream ridging is the most significant worry. Ensembles are less bullish with deamplification, but we'll see. As long as the vortex lobe isn't sitting over New England, the short wave itself is fairly vigorous and should pump heights.



Long term, as noted, not seeing a protracted spring/torchy regime for mid-late March. After mid March it may not be cold enough for snow threats, however.

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Post by frank 638 Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:03 pm

AccuWeather has me snow for this Fri  with a high of 33 deg I just want one more snowstorm before winter ends

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:24 pm

the euro is north of the other models for next FridayI'm hearing 4 to 6 inches for the New York City metro and 8 to 12 as you head out to the island
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:55 pm

@algae888 wrote:the euro is north of the other models for next FridayI'm hearing 4 to 6 inches for the New York City metro and 8 to 12 as you head out to the island

It had quite the shift east on the 2nd/3rd system as well. Ukie holding on an eastern soln as well. Def enough to monitor

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 27, 2016 3:02 pm

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_096_0000
Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_120_0000

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 27, 2016 3:05 pm

00Z EURO:

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Ecmwf_10

12z EURO:

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Ecmwf_11

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 27, 2016 3:46 pm

Now the EPS is coming east. An eyebrow is raised. No body else is seeing this??

12Z EPS Yesterday:


Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Eps_sl12

00Z EPS last night:


Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Eps_sl11

12Z EPS Today:

Long Range Thread 11.0  - Page 3 Eps_sl13

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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