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03/04 Minor Snow Event

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:45 am

Lets keep discussions related to this Friday's storm in here. At this moment I am thinking the northern wave is strong enough that it will produce a 1-3/2-4 type of snow for most of the region. It will be enhanced from the southern jet as the southern energy remains to our south and moves out to sea. The possibility of a stronger coastal storm still exists, but models are leaning against that at this time.

Latest NAM snow map

03/04 Minor Snow Event 987homL

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:51 am

03/04 Minor Snow Event Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:58 am

GFS made a bump NW too- H5 looks much better - another couple of bumps and we get a solid snowstorm

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_z500_vort_us_13

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:59 am

Here comes the 12z GFS. Nice High to the north.

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_pr6_slp_t850_ma_13

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_pr6_slp_t850_ma_14


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:00 am

We are very close to something 'big' but not sure...

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:01 am

COME ON YOU BIAG KEEP TICKING NW!

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:02 am

03/04 Minor Snow Event 1khKCfb

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:03 am

AMAZING how the GFS had no storm 48 hours ago

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:34 am

We should not write off this coastal just yet. All it takes is a 25 mile tick NW and parts of south jersey gets into warning criteria snows if you take the GFS verbatim. I'm now very interested in the GEFS ensembles.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:58 am

Nuts,
Never write off the last hurrah, this ain't done trending NW imho. The HP is modelled as of now to exit quicker allowing fir this to turn more N, need a full phase earlier and we see a good solid snowstorm that we can then end this winter on.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 01, 2016 12:55 pm

This storm is so close yet so far away....I want to throw an F bomb at this system so bad. Here are the GEFS. FWIW still passes SE of the BM but N of the 6 z which was N of the 00z which was N of the 18z...Point being is GFS and its ensembles cont to tick N. How far N is yet to be seen.

03/04 Minor Snow Event Untitl10
03/04 Minor Snow Event Untitl11

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 1:24 pm

Scott - like so many storms this winter - we have to coax them to get up here - so frustrating - it is all about the overrunning - ELI is in teh game for the coastal - we need a 100 mile tick NW for teh NYC Metro Area - could it happen yes but like you said it remains to be seen - cofleunce needs to be where the cmc had it yesterday at 12z

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 1:31 pm

The EURO has stu cazz. Maybe a minor coating to an inch.


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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 01, 2016 2:13 pm

Two subtle, but huge differences at 500mb on todays 12z GFS vs the 12z Euro.

Notice on the GFS the southern piece is out ahead of the N piece, whereas, the N piece is slight ahead of the S piece on the Euro, and also the S piece is further N on the GFS compared to the Euro.   This little difference makes all the difference in the world.  If the Euro is right then the N piece will likely push the S piece and keep the track OTS, if the GFS is right then there is room for the southern energy to be pulled north via phasing(if timing of any phasing is right) with the N energy; therefore, room for the LP to track more N instead of east.  

GFS:

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_hr11
03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_hr12

Euro:

03/04 Minor Snow Event Euro_h11
03/04 Minor Snow Event Euro_h12

Notice on the second images of both models the main focus of vorticity (areas where the red is) in the southern branch.  The GFS has it centered just off the coast just S of the Delmarva; whereas the Euro has it just off the N Carolina/S Carolina coast.  A huge difference on our sensible weather, depending on which model has the right idea.  The strength of Northern piece, and how far south it can dig is important in all of this as well.  

Bottom line is it would not take much at all at 500mb on either model, esp if the GFS is more right on timing/ positioning, and strength of the two energies, for a more moderate or even significant event to unfold.  So which one do I think is right?  Well GFS has had a progressive bias historically, but I cant recall if its with N energies or S energies.  If its the latter then one would think that the southern energy is too far out ahead on the 12z and will correct slower and trend further S and OTS with the track.  However if its the former(Northen progressive bias on the GFS) then it may be onto something, because historically the Euro bias is to hold back energy in the southern branch, soooo in theory when the energy involved comes ashore tonight we could see the euro correct some with the southern energy with it trending a tad faster as we get into the next 24-48hrs of model runs, and therefore bring the track further N.  My logical mind says that this will most likely end up so close yet so F---ing far away, but the weenie in me, wait...that sounded weird, the Snow weenie in me, wait...still weird, there still is a sound scientific reasoning and room for a more moderate to significant event to unfold; the answers of which should be determined within the next 24-48hrs as all of the energy is better sampled.  No matter how it unfolds it gonna get warm up in here next week.

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:20 pm

nice posts scott and oops can you move my last post to the lr thread. thanks
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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 01, 2016 4:04 pm

There is what is to be the southern system just coming ashore:
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/west/westwvflash.html

03/04 Minor Snow Event Latest10

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:57 pm

18z gfs shows 1-3 area wide

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_asnow_neus_15

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Post by jake732 Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:07 pm

Frank, I guess it won't be coming North? When do the short range models start because Im wondering what they will show
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:26 pm

@jake732 wrote:Frank, I guess it won't be coming North? When do the short range models start because Im wondering what they will show

The NAM looks like the GFS. I honestly don't think we'll see a coastal come up the coast. I think this will remain a minor event. That said, the GEFS keep trending so we won't know for sure until tomorrow most likely.

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:30 pm

GEFS FTFW!!.JUST WHEN U THOUGHT THEY LET U OUT THEY PULL U RIGHT BACK IN SOB!!
.5 TO .75 UP TO NYC


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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:32 pm

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_14

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Post by dkodgis Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:59 pm

CP-this could be it. Central Park could go over the top with this snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:59 pm

00z gfs snowfall. Still looking like a general 1-3, lollipop 4 inch amounts 

03/04 Minor Snow Event Gfs_asnow_neus_13

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Post by Snow88 Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:04 am

Ukie looks the same as the GFS
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:21 am

6z GFS is more amped and ticked closer to the coast. Literally another 50 mile shift NW and it would have been a good hit. The models will have the storm fully sampled today. Let's see if the west trends continue at 12z.
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