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03/04 Minor Snow Event

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:58 am

03/04 Minor Snow Event - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_14

Nuts absolutely another 50 mile tick nw and we have a warning type of event. 12z should be interesting

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Post by snow247 Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:03 am

@amugs wrote:03/04 Minor Snow Event - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_14

Nuts absolutely another 50 mile tick nw and we have a warning type of event. 12z should be interesting

Going to need more than 50 miles imo.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:07 am

GFS is pretty much in its own right now

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:37 am

@sroc4 wrote:GFS is pretty much in its own right now

EPS is showing 1-2" for the NNJ area and NYC - 3" as you go east from there. The mean.

Another 50 mile tick NW and it gets even better.

03/04 Minor Snow Event - Page 2 56d6d305f3ebc_eps_snow_m_nyc_20MARCH2EPS.thumb.png.4ca6b870a6aa52f14d780afccd84f33d



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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:06 am

6z GFS is close to a major bomb, 980s low off the coast and tight gradient, showing 60-70kt surface winds just offshore, if it moves NW, watch out, but the way this winters been going the NAN is probably right with a light clipper type event. Will moniter.
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:37 am

srefs got wetter...
03/04 Minor Snow Event - Page 2 SREFUS24Precip03081
03z
03/04 Minor Snow Event - Page 2 SREFUS24Precip09072
09z
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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:38 am

FWIW JB is calling for 3-6 for I-95 corridor with potential for 12". Bold to say the least.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:01 am

Algae888, the "wetter" srefs can be accounted for the fact that there is one plume that gives NYC 26" of snow from this system (aka Jonas redux). Needless to say, I highly doubt that that plume verifies.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:11 am

@Math23x7 wrote:Algae888, the "wetter" srefs can be accounted for the fact that there is one plume that gives NYC 26" of snow from this system (aka Jonas redux).  Needless to say, I highly doubt that that plume verifies.

But imagine if you will if it did.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:55 am

Need the ridge in the west to lift a bit more or the heights to rise more on the coast ahead of this LP to get it turn more North IMO - we are so frickin close again. 50-75 mile NW jog and we are in business - can it be done??

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:24 am

just watched Bernie--says he will not rule out storm for us just yet...always a interesting to watch him..love the way he explains everything!

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/late-week-storm-to-threaten-mi
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:33 am

Meh, I am not excited for this. I hope I'm wrong.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:08 am

12z GFS...nothing changed. General 1-3" area wide.

03/04 Minor Snow Event - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_13

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Post by WOLVES1 Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:50 am

I want nothing more then for you to be wrong.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Meh, I am not excited for this. I hope I'm wrong.

your probably right...but I hope you are wrong..just this once Wink Wink

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Post by sabamfa Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:41 pm

When will we have a more definitive idea? I have concert tickets in NYC on Friday night and a big storm might prevent me from getting there =\

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:29 pm

@sabamfa wrote:When will we have a more definitive idea? I have concert tickets in NYC on Friday night and a big storm might prevent me from getting there =\

Not a big storm at this time S & E she goes and going to be another miss with a big coastal.

We cant win with these storms this winter = sucks imo and frustrating as all H.
Precip gradient starting to tighten up on models.

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:37 pm

In general, the system is compact because the upper level system is not that expansive. If the upper system turns out to be more intense, we might see a bit more wrap around 700 mb moisture but even at that, it probably will remain offshore.
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Post by hyde345 Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:41 pm

Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle with you. This storm is another one that is giving us a big FU, especially to the HV.
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Post by jimv45 Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:53 pm

Hyde winter if you can call it that came in south and east and left south and east and those cutters well that was another slap in the face! why change this storm says as it makes that south and east move.














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Post by frank 638 Wed Mar 02, 2016 4:44 pm

Joe cioffi Snowfall map is up he has for 1 to 2 inches for NYC Westchester nj and parts of long island .with 2 to 3 inches for east of long island I hope this goes up

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 02, 2016 5:02 pm

Congrats to the Cape & Islands for their newly issued Winter Storm Watch. 

We are painfully close to getting a big snowstorm.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:50 pm

SREFS A BIT NW BUMP - HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE!

03/04 Minor Snow Event - Page 2 Image.thumb.gif.b5f83171a841cc0b8cbc2a9646fd8f03


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Post by Snow88 Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:24 pm

GFS went east.GGEM is a whiff.
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Post by Vinnydula Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:28 pm

To next winter guys seen you then Smile
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