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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:00 pm

More in depth forecasts for tropical cyclone activity will become available in coming months(NHC/Private entities). In my limited spare time I have been observing a few variables in the Tropical Atlantic...
The weakening + ENSO could force atmospheric responses to allow for more favorable upper level conditions for development in the MDR.
Yet, these atmospheric conditions could be counteracted by the negative departures in the MDR in the Atlantic.  Currently MDR SST anomalies are near neutral, leaning slightly negative during a recent drop. This is while, nearly every other region of Atlantic SST in correspondence with interest in cyclone development are running .4-.6 degrees C above normal.
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Cdas-s10
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Mdrsst10
4-Month based analogs suggest slight warming of the MDR and cooling of other Atlantic Regions as Normal conditions reappear over the Nino region. The current CFS.v2 also suggests slight warming of the MDR in the coming months.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Analog10
I have also been observing the relative strength and northward variability of the ITCZ over Africa on long range guidance, and the persistence of positive precipitation departures in the central Atlantic.
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Cfs_an10

For the sake of sanity I hope for a slightly more active season to allow for some fun tracking.


Last edited by Quietace on Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:02 pm

Should have included Statistical/Dynamic modeling forecasts for ENSO region
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Figure4

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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:10 pm

Nice post Ryan. I hope there is something to track this season as well.

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:16 pm

Ryan great analysis here kid, I have lots to learn on H'canes. I hope we get two cyclones that make direct hits.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:17 pm

I think it will be an active year and possibly land falling storms. FWIW (very little) the farmers almanac calls for at least one TS up here and hurricane threat here but looks quite per them for majority of summer. When does Colorado come out with their prediction, last was in December.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:34 pm

CSU put out their prediction, looks like another fairly quiet year but it only takes one. 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and two majors is their call, but they have been wrong before.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 14, 2016 7:29 pm

12 seems a little low to me. 15 seems like a better number. Global wind pattern is a bit more favorable this year compared to last. I don't think trade winds will be as strong. Annnd, like Jman said, it only takes one.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Apr 17, 2016 10:38 pm

There is a Cat 5 cyclone in the Indian Ocean. Strongest ever recorded in that region. No wonder the MJO was so active this winter - SST's are WARM there.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions 12993574_1110062452358512_1074976605924300058_n

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Post by Quietace Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:32 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:There is a Cat 5 cyclone in the Indian Ocean. Strongest ever recorded in that region. No wonder the MJO was so active this winter - SST's are WARM there.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions 12993574_1110062452358512_1074976605924300058_n
Its perfection Shocked cyclops
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions 2016SH19_MIIWVRGB_201604180526
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions 2016SH19_1KMSRRGB_201604180730_SYNT

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Post by jmanley32 Mon May 23, 2016 4:17 pm

Ahhh you gotta love TWC going before the NHC shows anything. It happens and models do show a very weak low LR but this article is not necessary.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-basin-tropical-subtropical-development-late-may-early-june-2016
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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 25, 2016 8:23 pm

We have our first possible tropical system (well second Alex was in January) currently at 30/60 % for 5 day.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions First_10
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri May 27, 2016 9:34 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Nhcpro10
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Nhcpro11
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Post by jmanley32 Sat May 28, 2016 5:37 am

Yep and according to models looks like a lot moisture could be pulled up here to rain a lot of monday. Frank anythoghts?
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Post by Quietace Sat May 28, 2016 7:33 am

High precipitable water values associated with the tropical system, combined with frontal forcings will enhance precip and drop a inch or two of rain. Not a big deal as precip shield on models is rather thin in nature, certainty not a organized post tropical system with developed shield.

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Post by Quietace Sat May 28, 2016 8:03 am

Small Convection blow up before it moves over cooler shelf water. Gulf Stream feeding enhancement prior to landfall.
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions 2016AL02_16KMGWVP_201605280845
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions 2016AL02_4KMSRBDC_201605281130

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat May 28, 2016 10:26 am

Models also hinting that it will be overnight Sunday into Monday with most precip S. Jersey and LI... (S&E, S&E haha) we might be able to salvage Monday afternoon for BBQ

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Post by amugs Sat May 28, 2016 6:31 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Gfs_apcpn_us_10

18Z GFS
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8

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Post by amugs Sat May 28, 2016 7:37 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions 13317070_1199853780054897_6814833882411057564_o

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Post by amugs Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:06 pm

Colin looks to be next in the 10 day range.
These in close trop cyclones are going to be the name of the game short term. Once we get to Aug through late October I think we ramp up the hcanes due to many factors but the ACE is a big one besides Nina.
From the bell
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Eps_tc10[/url][/img]

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Weathe10[/url][/img]



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Post by amugs Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:24 pm

Well those in the NJ and NY coastline will cringe at these stats for hcane damage possibility in this article. Yikes! !

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/06/01/410357.htm

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Post by amugs Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:28 pm

Look at what the EPS AND Euro show

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Post-510[/url][/img]

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:08 pm

@amugs wrote:Look at what the EPS AND Euro show

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Post-510[/url][/img]

not seeing the images.
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Post by Radz Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:36 pm

Colin is born... earliest 3rd named storm
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Post by amugs Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:03 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions Image.thumb.jpg.ebd7f0dff9594822213cf84a243201b1

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Post by amugs Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:05 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions AL0316W5_NL

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