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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Post by amugs Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:57 am

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 819(1)

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 19, 2016 10:24 am

@amugs wrote:2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 819(1)
what in the world I can't follow that for nothing lol. Yes fantasy runs but I am also hearing euro has not been so great and people are taking caution that the gfs could b onto this thing. We will see once it forms.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:45 pm

Going to see how that wave is holding up as it traverses 50-60W Longitude.  That wave has to travel through some wind shear between its current location and 50W.  It its in no hurry, so like a LR fantasy snow storm, GFS soln is just something to gawk at for now.  On any given model run if the track is taken over some of the mountainous terrain of some of the islands, like the euro takes the vort max right over Hispanola and dominica, it is going to destroy it before it gets going.  Patience...............
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Wg8shr
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Wg8sht

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Post by Snow88 Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:48 pm

12z GFS has 99L hitting the Florida panhandle.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:00 pm

Fiona experiencing shear.  The low level circulation is being exposed with convection to the north of the LLC.  

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Rgb-animated

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:24 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Fiona experiencing shear.  The low level circulation is being exposed with convection to the north of the LLC.  

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Rgb-animated
Fiona will setup the eventual more westward track to future Gaston. That's the storm to watch for an eventual east coast threat.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:51 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Fiona experiencing shear.  The low level circulation is being exposed with convection to the north of the LLC.  

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Rgb-animated
Fiona will setup the eventual more westward track to future Gaston. That's the storm to watch for an eventual east coast threat.

Agreed.  Im not implying that we need to watch Fiona as a threat; more for simply enjoying the processes of a strengthening and/or weakening tropical system.  I am not ready to call 99L an east coast threat just yet. long way to go for that, but def offers the best chance thus far.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:39 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_ms1218GFS about to show another doomsday scenario with Guston. This run looks more north (east coast threat) than the 12z run.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:47 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_ms13
Whoa! Florida about to get crushed!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:12 pm

It hits fl GA boarder then gives e tire ec a cat 1 2 or ts all way up and exits just south nyc.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:32 pm

The fantasy hurricane you're seeing on the GFS would be Gaston if he survives the unfavorable environment over the next 48 to 72 hours. Here is a good summary by Garret Bastardi. I agree with him for now. Just wait and see at this time.

Eyes are still on invest 99L well out to sea west of the Cape Verde Islands. There is a lot of potential for this system to develop especially once it gets into the NE Caribbean. Right now there is a battle going on between the global models. The GFS, CMC, the GEFS and the HWRF(Hurricane Model) all develop 99L into a very strong system. The GFS gets the system to a strong Category 4 by next weekend. Meanwhile, the Euro, UKMET, and the JMA all are not as excited about the system and keep it an open wave dying in the Northern Caribbean. So both of those ideas will be outlined and it is hard to take a stand right now especially if the European is not on board with the GFS or CMC. In my opinion if the system can get going and track near Puerto Rico and then North of Hispaniola this could be a large hurricane with a lot of conditions going for it for intensification. If the system stays south and can't get anything going by the time the system reaches Puerto Rico it will be hard for the storm to intensify.


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:57 pm

I didn't notice this until now, but the GFS runs in 1 hour increments now then after 120 hours goes to 3 hours. Sweet.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I didn't notice this until now, but the GFS runs in 1 hour increments now then after 120 hours goes to 3 hours. Sweet.
That will bode well for us come winter when we're tracking the next big snowstorm. It will most definitely cut down on the number of times hitting the reload button.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Aug 20, 2016 12:47 am

gfs goes into the gulf
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Aug 20, 2016 7:36 am

Safe to say the Canadian is confused

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Aug 20, 2016 7:36 am

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 5 Image.jpeg.9118f058b3a91e64105cbe23dbc5d918

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Aug 20, 2016 7:46 am

Good morning Frank..hey this 99L if becomes a threat..what time frame are we looking at...I leave for Florida tom and come home late Thursday night
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Aug 20, 2016 8:30 am

Morning Joanne - this is a late August / early September threat. You'll be fine for Florida next week

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Aug 20, 2016 9:48 am

Thank you.I hope it turns out to be a pretty storm for the fish
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:04 am

Frank cmc I don't even look at its been bonkers. What I noticed was euro finally picked up on it a little. 06z gfs is weak till in Gulf but as we know way to far out and those sgetti if right Def mean ec threat. Im.not thinking gulf.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Aug 20, 2016 12:56 pm

GFS continues to remain active
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:08 pm

Gfs now doesnt develop 99l but nearly slams us with a cat 4 from 90l sheesh model craziness.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:12 pm

Cmc more realistic this run and more in line with gfs. Wonder if to b 90l will actually b the one to watch or will we have two back to back threats. That b crazy.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:43 pm

As of 2pm update the wave to b 90l has a 70 percent chance higher than 99l. 99l will moisten the area but it looks like the second wave will head more nw. Gfs brings it right to us coast but that far in open Atlantic to take a track like that would b something else.
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Post by track17 Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:52 pm

Hey guys is there anyway you guys could post the maps of the new updates. Thanks so much

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