2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

@amugs wrote:

what in the world I can't follow that for nothing lol. Yes fantasy runs but I am also hearing euro has not been so great and people are taking caution that the gfs could b onto this thing. We will see once it forms.

Going to see how that wave is holding up as it traverses 50-60W Longitude.  That wave has to travel through some wind shear between its current location and 50W.  It its in no hurry, so like a LR fantasy snow storm, GFS soln is just something to gawk at for now.  On any given model run if the track is taken over some of the mountainous terrain of some of the islands, like the euro takes the vort max right over Hispanola and dominica, it is going to destroy it before it gets going.  Patience...............

12z GFS has 99L hitting the Florida panhandle.

Fiona experiencing shear.  The low level circulation is being exposed with convection to the north of the LLC.  

@sroc4 wrote:Fiona experiencing shear.  The low level circulation is being exposed with convection to the north of the LLC.  

Fiona will setup the eventual more westward track to future Gaston. That's the storm to watch for an eventual east coast threat.

@nutleyblizzard wrote:

@sroc4 wrote:Fiona experiencing shear.  The low level circulation is being exposed with convection to the north of the LLC.  

Fiona will setup the eventual more westward track to future Gaston. That's the storm to watch for an eventual east coast threat.

Agreed.  Im not implying that we need to watch Fiona as a threat; more for simply enjoying the processes of a strengthening and/or weakening tropical system.  I am not ready to call 99L an east coast threat just yet. long way to go for that, but def offers the best chance thus far.

18GFS about to show another doomsday scenario with Guston. This run looks more north (east coast threat) than the 12z run.

Whoa! Florida about to get crushed!!!

It hits fl GA boarder then gives e tire ec a cat 1 2 or ts all way up and exits just south nyc.

The fantasy hurricane you're seeing on the GFS would be Gaston if he survives the unfavorable environment over the next 48 to 72 hours. Here is a good summary by Garret Bastardi. I agree with him for now. Just wait and see at this time.

Eyes are still on invest 99L well out to sea west of the Cape Verde Islands. There is a lot of potential for this system to develop especially once it gets into the NE Caribbean. Right now there is a battle going on between the global models. The GFS, CMC, the GEFS and the HWRF(Hurricane Model) all develop 99L into a very strong system. The GFS gets the system to a strong Category 4 by next weekend. Meanwhile, the Euro, UKMET, and the JMA all are not as excited about the system and keep it an open wave dying in the Northern Caribbean. So both of those ideas will be outlined and it is hard to take a stand right now especially if the European is not on board with the GFS or CMC. In my opinion if the system can get going and track near Puerto Rico and then North of Hispaniola this could be a large hurricane with a lot of conditions going for it for intensification. If the system stays south and can't get anything going by the time the system reaches Puerto Rico it will be hard for the storm to intensify.

I didn't notice this until now, but the GFS runs in 1 hour increments now then after 120 hours goes to 3 hours. Sweet.

@Frank_Wx wrote:I didn't notice this until now, but the GFS runs in 1 hour increments now then after 120 hours goes to 3 hours. Sweet.

That will bode well for us come winter when we're tracking the next big snowstorm. It will most definitely cut down on the number of times hitting the reload button.

gfs goes into the gulf

Safe to say the Canadian is confused

Good morning Frank..hey this 99L if becomes a threat..what time frame are we looking at...I leave for Florida tom and come home late Thursday night

Morning Joanne - this is a late August / early September threat. You'll be fine for Florida next week

Thank you.I hope it turns out to be a pretty storm for the fish

Frank cmc I don't even look at its been bonkers. What I noticed was euro finally picked up on it a little. 06z gfs is weak till in Gulf but as we know way to far out and those sgetti if right Def mean ec threat. Im.not thinking gulf.

GFS continues to remain active

Gfs now doesnt develop 99l but nearly slams us with a cat 4 from 90l sheesh model craziness.

Cmc more realistic this run and more in line with gfs. Wonder if to b 90l will actually b the one to watch or will we have two back to back threats. That b crazy.

As of 2pm update the wave to b 90l has a 70 percent chance higher than 99l. 99l will moisten the area but it looks like the second wave will head more nw. Gfs brings it right to us coast but that far in open Atlantic to take a track like that would b something else.

Hey guys is there anyway you guys could post the maps of the new updates. Thanks so much