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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jun 06, 2016 8:54 am

@amugs wrote:2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 2 13317070_1199853780054897_6814833882411057564_o
I had a feeling when this outlook came out it was too low. We're only six days in and we have colin already. With that in mind, and with warm Atlantic and gulf waters along with a developing La Nina, I expect the NHC to upgrade the current thinking of 10-16 storms in there next outlook which I believe comes out in mid or late July.
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Post by amugs Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:03 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@amugs wrote:2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 2 13317070_1199853780054897_6814833882411057564_o
I had a feeling when this outlook came out it was too low. We're only six days in and we have colin already. With that in mind, and with warm Atlantic and gulf waters along with a developing La Nina, I expect the NHC to upgrade the current thinking of 10-16 storms in there next outlook which I believe comes out in mid or late July.

Nutley,

Good point.
I personally called for 11-16 storms 2-4 major hcanes, 6-9 landfall storms, 2-4 east coast.
i think we may see another one or two trop cyclones for in teh GOM before I think teh pattern becomes unfavorable over the next 30-45 days but then I thin once we get to about August through November we saddle up for a fun tracking but possibly scary ride. I think about an above average season is in store - Atlantic is cold to the North and east but warm west -so many variables but my thinking as Frank our guru pointed out that Western Atlantic, Caribbean and GOM is were they will form and strengthen rapidly as teh season progresses due to teh warm waters just off the coast.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:32 am

@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@amugs wrote:2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 2 13317070_1199853780054897_6814833882411057564_o
I had a feeling when this outlook came out it was too low. We're only six days in and we have colin already. With that in mind, and with warm Atlantic and gulf waters along with a developing La Nina, I expect the NHC to upgrade the current thinking of 10-16 storms in there next outlook which I believe comes out in mid or late July.

Nutley,

Good point.
I personally called for 11-16 storms 2-4 major hcanes, 6-9 landfall storms, 2-4 east coast.
i think we may see another one or two trop cyclones for in teh GOM before I think teh pattern becomes unfavorable over the next 30-45 days but then I thin once we get to about August through November we saddle up for a fun tracking but possibly scary ride. I think about an above average season is in store - Atlantic is cold to the North and east but warm west -so many variables but my thinking as Frank our guru pointed out that Western Atlantic, Caribbean and GOM is were they will form and strengthen rapidly as teh season progresses due to teh warm waters just off the coast.
Yep. I can most definitely see the prime areas for cyclone formation this season to be focused in the GOM, Caribbean and the Bahamas. Could see multiple landfalling threats. We'll see.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:56 pm

Let's hope there are no hurricanes the 3rd week of August ..going to Disneyworld for a few days
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:13 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Let's hope there are no hurricanes the 3rd week of August ..going to Disneyworld for a few days

I have been to Florida twice in the month of August. First time, Katrina blew through, second time Tropical Storm Faye, so I am 2 for 2! Lucky for you I will be down the shore in August, oh wait, I was down there for Irene!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:49 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:Let's hope there are no hurricanes the 3rd week of August ..going to Disneyworld for a few days

I have been to Florida twice in the month of August. First time, Katrina blew through, second time Tropical Storm Faye, so I am 2 for 2! Lucky for you I will be down the shore in August, oh wait, I was down there for Irene!  
Shocked Shocked oh no...you know it has been quiet the last couple of years..so I am nervous..my son made honor roll all year so my husband said I could take him to disney for a few days as a reward..so our summer always full and can't take him out of school I booked at low season...and hottest time of year..lol,forgetting about hurricane season..here is to fingers crossed for your trip and mine
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:31 pm

From what I understand the "C" storm does not historically form until sometime in August, which would put us way ahead of schedule. I canned for a very active season. I think FL time may be up and even though Sandy did hit is a ACTUAL hurricane not hybrid or subtropical has not hit up here since what Bob in 1991? I could be wrong but that makes us way overdue too, lots of landfall concern as I think there will be many close to US formations and not so many cape verde storms despite the LA Nina.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:33 pm

@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@amugs wrote:2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 2 13317070_1199853780054897_6814833882411057564_o
I had a feeling when this outlook came out it was too low. We're only six days in and we have colin already. With that in mind, and with warm Atlantic and gulf waters along with a developing La Nina, I expect the NHC to upgrade the current thinking of 10-16 storms in there next outlook which I believe comes out in mid or late July.

Nutley,

Good point.
I personally called for 11-16 storms 2-4 major hcanes, 6-9 landfall storms, 2-4 east coast.
i think we may see another one or two trop cyclones for in teh GOM before I think teh pattern becomes unfavorable over the next 30-45 days but then I thin once we get to about August through November we saddle up for a fun tracking but possibly scary ride. I think about an above average season is in store - Atlantic is cold to the North and east but warm west -so many variables but my thinking as Frank our guru pointed out that Western Atlantic, Caribbean and GOM is were they will form and strengthen rapidly as teh season progresses due to teh warm waters just off the coast.

That's a lot of US landfalls and 2-4 on EC, one would likjely have a effect up here either directly or indirectly. You know I will be tracking. Could be a nerve racking late summer/fall at least some places of the US coastline.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:34 pm

Also had it not been for the front Colin could have very well made it up the coast and I find it interesting it actually got stronger as he became subtropical and plans to maintain WAY out into the atlantic. That's a bit concerning. As stated the warm waters.
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Post by amugs Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:03 pm

Number 4 but staying in the western Gulf Of Mehico.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 20, 2016 12:30 pm

Yep number 4, and in June, we really starting the season off fast, if climatology says anything we are going to be way above mormal if we stay at a pace like this.
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Post by amugs Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:12 pm

New Orleans be on the lookout for some fireworks on teh 4th but not the usual ones?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:59 pm

Yea it's been fairly active. But if I recall, last year started off pretty active too then really died down from late June into August.

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Post by amugs Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea it's been fairly active. But if I recall, last year started off pretty active too then really died down from late June into August.

Frank,

Absolutely agree but this year I think we start to pick up in mid August through October possibly November. Interesting to see what will happen with the Atlantic since we have a cool pool of water up north, neutral to the MDR region and warm waters in the western Atlantic with teh GOM and Caribbean being the fuel source for our trop cyclones. With a dying nino to nina transition we get weak shearing from the pac which will help these convective beasts grow in these regions. Time will tell.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:36 pm

I definitely think it'll be more active than last year once we reach fall. GFS pretty consistent with showing 'something' around the Gulf Coast in early July.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:27 pm

Sheesh number 5 already, no way Frank we did not have a big start to almost E before the end of June. I think Erica was in the fall? This is nearing the low end of named storms already, could be a very high over average year IMO.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 06, 2016 1:47 pm

zzzzz.................LOL bet it will be august before we see much of anything start up.
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Post by amugs Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:zzzzz.................LOL bet it will be august before we see much of anything start up.

Yup the Atlantic and it's friend the GOA and Carrier an aren't conducive right now for development. Be patient and it will come. Frank said did myself and Algae that we'd start strong tail off and rescue up around mid August once conditions be more conducive for cyclone development. September and Oct should be fun.

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:04 pm

This from Joe Bastardi. We are about to get into the prime of Hcane season next month more towards the later.

https://patriotpost.us/opinion/43960

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:59 pm

The next 2-3 weeks will continue to remain quiet in the Atlantic basin. We'll begin seeing more well defined tropical waves exiting off the west coast of Africa, but they'll either become depressions or die altogether. Lots of dust is still traversing the Atlantic (Saharan Dust Layer). Keep in mind the busiest period for tropical cyclone development is late August through early October. We still have a long way to go. 

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 2 July_27_2016_84807_PM_EDT

Sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico are running well above normal. If a tropical wave does make it to this area, particularly during times of weak wind shear and a potent ridge over the east, then look out. It could get pretty interesting up and down the coast...


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:27 pm

JB has mentioned the storms forming closer to the US, I know this can often spin off of old fronts coming off the US. I have a feeling Cape Verde season will not be a big factor but more in the way of systems forming closer to the US, just a opinion def not fact.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:01 pm

And just as we were saying all is quiet I noticed this. Not one but two invests.

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Post by amugs Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:21 pm

I am here in the gorgeous Playa Del Carmen peeps, guess what?? I am watching the maps to see where TS Earl will hit! Sum a no bitch!! Looks like it will pass south of me but it will take out manana for yo and mi famalia!! Looking at wind and rain effects now. Reports to come for all to enjoy!
Ciao

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Post by frank 638 Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:28 pm

I hope this not effect punta cana because I am leaving next Thur to go on vacation

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Post by amugs Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:37 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I hope this not effect punta cana because I am leaving next Thur to go on vacation

It is to effect them but it will be fine by the time you get there. You may have to watch another wave though during the mid Mont timeframe.

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