2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

GFS tries to bring it up the coast.

Notice 99l also coming up coast as weak 1010 lp over us. Pouch 25 kills pr divides it in half. Tweets already flying about concerns for this one the week frank notate in scroll. Media hype I'm sure will start as soon as it's named which I wouldn't b surprised if by end of week. Already looks good and is over africa.

Snow88 wrote:GFS tries to bring it up the coast.

we need start saying which we are talking about. Are u speaking of 99l?

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GFS tries to bring it up the coast.

we need start saying which we are talking about. Are u speaking of 99l?

Yes 99L

Too many waves to discuss lol

GFS still has the next wave which comes off of Africa

Cmc doesn't have pouch 25 at all haha. Gfs treks it right up center fl looks headed then to skirt coast up ec if it went out further.

[quote="Snow88"]

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GFS tries to bring it up the coast.

we need start saying which we are talking about. Are u speaking of 99l?

Yes 99L the one coming off africa around Tuesday will be 92l. Has amazing support from gfs and euro but cmc lost it. I don't really bet anything on cmc

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GFS tries to bring it up the coast.

we need start saying which we are talking about. Are u speaking of 99l?

Yes 99L                                                                                        the one coming off africa around Tuesday will be 92l. Has amazing support from gfs and euro but cmc lost it. I don't really bet anything on cmc

I wouldn't bet on anything still fantasy land but it's exciting jman

2pm Update 99L is at 60/80 and they say TD will likely form in next few days, and a ramp up in gulf is more likely as convection is looking better. TD 8 same, pouch 25 dropped to 50% in the 5 day from 60%, which I find odd, not sure what their resoning is (they do not explain).

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GFS tries to bring it up the coast.

we need start saying which we are talking about. Are u speaking of 99l?

Yes 99L                                                                                        the one coming off africa around Tuesday will be 92l. Has amazing support from gfs and euro but cmc lost it. I don't really bet anything on cmc

I wouldn't bet on anything still fantasy land but it's exciting jman

Oh no I am not betting on anything but unlike with 99L there is already agreement with GFS and Euro unlike 99L which was a who is right. Which it still kinda is with intensity as Euro has a monster and GFS a weak storm.

Gaston - a hurricane that will remain offshore. No threat for us.

TD 8 - a weak tropical disturbance that will bring some rain to the Carolina's. No threat for us.

99L - this is the orange "X" south of Florida. It will move into the Gulf and likely turn into a tropical depression or tropical storm Helene. The new EURO just came out and it is very weak with 99L, a trend toward the GFS and a big difference from prior EURO runs. It keeps it very weak.

A new thread has been started to discuss 99L:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t708-invest-99l-discussion#88733

The next African wave is likely to form Hurricane Ian. This is the wave we are watching for September 10th-13th time frame. We'll continue discussion here for this wave and begin a thread later this week if necessary. The wave looks healthy.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvhi/movies/wvhi5new.html

Check out the ridge that looks to form over the eastern third of the country between September 6th and 11th on the latest GEFS. If it comes to fruition it will bring above normal temps to the area. Most important, it could pave a track for the next African wave which models have strengthening into a major Hurricane. Moral of the story: look for September to start off warm.

Frank isn't "H" Hermaine? Not Helene, maybe I am wrong but I could sworn. The models are just all over the place and its honestly kind annoying, especially with 99L, I will talk about it in the new thread, glad your opening a seperate one.

Frank_Wx wrote:Check out the ridge that looks to form over the eastern third of the country between September 6th and 11th on the latest GEFS. If it comes to fruition it will bring above normal temps to the area. Most important, it could pave a track for the next African wave which models have strengthening into a major Hurricane. Moral of the story: look for September to start off warm.

Pave a track where?

It is Hermine

Both wrong. Ha

The latest EURO does not develop the September wave anymore. Has nothing.

The new African wave will avoid most of the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) until it gets to about 40W-60W

Frank_Wx wrote:The latest EURO does not develop the September wave anymore. Has nothing.

As we know that doesn't mean much this far out. Could just as easily bring it back next run.

Frank_Wx wrote:The latest EURO does not develop the September wave anymore. Has nothing.

I wonder if ensembles lose it too, that to me will be more telling. But 2 weeks out, I am smart enough now to know not to bank on anything, it amazes me we cannot get tropics way in advance.

The very end of Euro run has some LP in off SE coast moving west (new) and it looks like a very weak pouch 25 coming into view at bottom. Frank is there a full atlantic view for Euro on weatherbell? I cannot seem to find it, it would be useful to track from africa.

jmanley32 wrote:The very end of Euro run has some LP in off SE coast moving west (new) and it looks like a very weak pouch 25 coming into view at bottom.  Frank is there a full atlantic view for Euro on weatherbell? I cannot seem to find it, it would be useful to track from africa.

Yes. Click on "global pressure level". Then top right click on "N Hemisphere tropics". Then "Atlantic".

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:The very end of Euro run has some LP in off SE coast moving west (new) and it looks like a very weak pouch 25 coming into view at bottom.  Frank is there a full atlantic view for Euro on weatherbell? I cannot seem to find it, it would be useful to track from africa.

Yes. Click on "global pressure level". Then top right click on "N Hemisphere tropics". Then "Atlantic".

Cool got it, btw Gaston as of 5pm first major of the year with 115mph winds.

People on other forums are saying its very possible the system coming off Africa that the 18z GFS is now not showing is and maybe a phantom storm. What do you think...anyone.

Anything beyond 300 hours is considered phantom. I think something is brewing since conditions are ripe and we're headed into active period, but remains to be seen when. In 3 days models may decide to bring back the 10th wave

Frank_Wx wrote:Anything beyond 300 hours is considered phantom. I think something is brewing since conditions are ripe and we're headed into active period, but remains to be seen when. In 3 days models may decide to bring back the 10th wave

well ot appears to develop in gom this run. Huge like it was on ec. Lots of run to run changes will be happen for at least 5 to 10 days.

On phone so can't post but bullseye sub 960mb cane into central jersey and then center moves along nyc and li on 12th. Fantasyland bUT that's what I call worst case senario. It brought it back quick from yesterday. Euro has it too. That would likely b strongest hurricane since what li express?

nutleyblizzard wrote:                            

6Z GFS shows a landfalling LI hurricane!

That would be the end of the jersey shore