2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
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mwilli5783
jake732
RJB8525
rb924119
aiannone
NjWeatherGuy
Math23x7
WOLVES1
track17
Joe Snow
Snow88
algae888
frank 638
weatherwatchermom
nutleyblizzard
Radz
Dunnzoo
skinsfan1177
Frank_Wx
jmanley32
amugs
sroc4
Quietace
27 posters
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
6Z GFS shows a landfalling LI hurricane!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
nutleyblizzard wrote:6Z GFS shows a landfalling LI hurricane!
That would be the end of the jersey shore
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
nutleyblizzard wrote:
6Z GFS shows a landfalling LI hurricane!
Only 56 more GFS runs to go before landfall...book it!!! lol. Just playing of course. That would be devastating to the entire area.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
sroc4 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:
6Z GFS shows a landfalling LI hurricane!
Only 56 more GFS runs to go before landfall...book it!!! lol. Just playing of course. That would be devastating to the entire area.
Only 56, well there won't be many changes then LOL. I know TD 8 & 9 do not pose a threat but being Frank has a banner and the models have suggested a move all the way up the coast on more than one run (although yes fantasyland) is there more credibility to the pattern favoring something like this? And yes it would be really bad, Its after truncation but I would image that's at least a cat 2 on full resolution, maybe more. It also looks like it has backed off on development in the 5 day, however NHC has kept it at 50%, maybe it will be enough to get it to TD, then ramps up as it heads closer to the US, I can only imagine what it would be like in here or all over the web if in 7-10 days we are watching a monster hurricane chugging toward the central to northern EC.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
GEFS already showing it
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Don't get me wrong JMan TD 9 even if it doesn't develop further will bring torrential rains to FLa along with TS force winds. Plus TS or Cat 1 is still not dead yet. Regarding the threat in the 10-15 day range...meh. There is not doubt the ensembles are indicating a strong ridge in the NE CONUS to NE Atlantic leading to blocking along the coast with topical waves sliding in underneath in this time frame. That said I think we should all learn that the LR will trend weaker or stronger with larger scale features like the ridge set up. Recall how the current Ridge along the EC was modeled a week to 10 days ago. It was modeled to slide east and weaken over the Rockies and plains. Now a huge trough is diving into the east stair out of Canada breaking down the ridge much more than earlier modeled. Point is the LR set up is currently modeled favorable for some kind of EC or GOM trop entity but I am just meh on it for now.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
I will say however that what is making everyone's panties get all bunched up is that the latent heat energy from Gaston followed by TD 8 and eventually TD 9 will potentially reinforce the blocking pattern set up in the LR. So again the potential is certainly there but I'm gonna wait to get too excited.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
sroc4 wrote:I will say however that what is making everyone's panties get all bunched up is that the latent heat energy from Gaston followed by TD 8 and eventually TD 9 will potentially reinforce the blocking pattern set up in the LR. So again the potential is certainly there but I'm gonna wait to get too excited.
I agree temper expectations
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Oh totally agree, was just curious and yeah your right, who knows the upper level pattern 10 days from now. Just keep watching and waiting I guess.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Do you have a location plot imag of the GEFS for that system?Snow88 wrote:GEFS already showing it
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
My god i see everyone else saw the 6z gfs too... wow
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Who could miss that! Wonder if this will be our time, but its fantasy land, now next week if models continue to show a threat like that we can worry, as sroc said meh...for now.NjWeatherGuy wrote:My god i see everyone else saw the 6z gfs too... wow
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
So far out to hour 102 GFS not excited about the new wave, its supposed to come off Africa in next day or two. Though last several runs have shown a longer development time, I will say one thing for 102 hrs from now its already at 55W, which is moving pretty darn fast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Look at that Bermuda high, that spells trouble, this thing is moving fast 198 hrs already past hispanola.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Yeah it cuts up west side fl over us and I to great Lakes at 998mb still. No one solution this far out can b expected. It's gping b all over the place. What I noticed is what is that lp that develops off the se coast ahead of Td 9. That would probably even further open up a weakness. We will see. Go b a long week or two. In the next 5 to 7 days I imagine better idea. Pouch 25 is coming off africa tonight and already looks good.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
I have to say that Tropical wave that just came off the West African Coast looks well organized already.
https://i.servimg.com/u/f35/19/12/71/08/8-29-110.jpg
https://i.servimg.com/u/f35/19/12/71/08/8-29-110.jpg
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
That Tropical Wave (Pouch 25) is now Invest 92L
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
tropical wave coming off africa is huge deep convection from the northeast quad moving west straight to the leeward isle with the high to the north and little wind shear interesting to see how this goes by the weekend...
mwilli5783- Posts : 146
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
92L has GFS ensembles pretty nailed down for this far out
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
The fursthest north one is sub 960mb at 240 hrs headed NW, thats not good for the EC.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:The fursthest north one is sub 960mb at 240 hrs headed NW, thats not good for the EC.
I had a long discussion the other day with the Mrs. about what would happen if lets say Long Island was under mandatory evacuation? I mean even on a good day the traffic sucks. The question where would you go? how many days notice could you reasonably expect?
This storm is definitely the one to watch, but wow how active has the Atlantic been in the last couple of weeks?
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Joe Snow wrote:jmanley32 wrote:The fursthest north one is sub 960mb at 240 hrs headed NW, thats not good for the EC.
I had a long discussion the other day with the Mrs. about what would happen if lets say Long Island was under mandatory evacuation? I mean even on a good day the traffic sucks. The question where would you go? how many days notice could you reasonably expect?
This storm is definitely the one to watch, but wow how active has the Atlantic been in the last couple of weeks?
I am so trying to temper my thoughts on what COULD happen with this, and we gotta because its go be at least 10 days before it nears the US, not losing sleep for 10 days on watching models lol
As for evacuations from LI, forget it, everyone even in NYC and westchester would be screwed, obviously ocean dwellers would be worse off but imagine 110+ mph winds up here widespread, good god. Just hypothetical but I have been saying for many years there is going to be a epic hurricane up here one day in our lifetime. LI express today would be utterly disastrous.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
So from looking at GEFS in about 6 days it should be near PR, which will give us a pretty good idea of where it will go, I always use that area as the time to really start watching.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Some of the Euro ensembles are not a good senario, but at this time they are all over the place, its too far out.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Thats one hec of a wave, 92L IMO is go rocket off fast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/html5-rb-short.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/html5-rb-short.html
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
0z GGEM retrogades 99L after exiting the NC coast and rides up the coast into NYC.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Its no longer 99L its TD 9 and theres a seperate thread for it, ya thats kinda crazy, some ensembles for GFS actually support that. Frank any thoughts on why that may be one solution, or is it not?Snow88 wrote:0z GGEM retrogades 99L after exiting the NC coast and rides up the coast into NYC.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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