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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Post by frank 638 Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:36 pm

i hope this goes out to sea

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:17 pm

A new area to watch very close to home (meaning the states), low chance but NHC watching it and that's a conducive area for development. Currently stationary. We are up to E, if this forms F, when was the last time it was the beginning of August and we were at F? Math I will leave that stat to you, or anyone else I am curious. At this point I think we were have a VERY active season, as we are not even into the busy season yet. GWO is predicting 2-4 hurricane landfalls and a high chance of the US getting a major hurricane landfall. I know they are kinda out there but they did get Sandy I believe years ahead of time.


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:18 pm

Interesting article just for the statistics, they are pretty wild. As for the sensationalism scare tactic piece that's just silly. As said its just luck mainly.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:20 pm

@frank 638 wrote:i hope this goes out to sea

Not sure what you are referring to but Earl is way down by Belize and losing steam no threat to the US.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:02 pm

I don't know why I listen to my co workers they told me the storm was going east I feel like idiot lol

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Post by amugs Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:26 pm

Jman great article, thanks for sharing. We all know that we are overdue in the meteorological world for a major hcane to hit the coastline. Sandy wasn't major even though for us she seemed like it. Give this area a Cat 3 and there won't be traces of shore house at the ground zero area.
No doubt that we have amnesia in the country and if you have never been through a hurricanes wrath you have no idea.
Active season incoming.

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Post by amugs Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:57 pm

From Earl on Thursday in Playa Del Carmen Mexico - tstorm squall pretty cool


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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:29 am

Looked like you were getting some outer bands.. glad you and the fam are safe!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:25 pm

I heard there were some landslides in eastern Mexico. 36 people dead. Very sad.

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Post by amugs Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:20 pm

Looks like Walker Cell suppressing the Trop Cyclone activity in teh atlantic as per Eric Blake on twitter

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Cpfu0b1WAAEo_Fq

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:38 pm

NHC says Hcane season still on track

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Img_2019

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:50 pm

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/atlantic-hurricane-season-still-expected-to-be-strongest-since-2012

Here is the full article - oh boy peeps especially Jman!

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Post by amugs Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:34 am

Trough in the West/Midwest and BH in the Central Atlantic leaning west = EC Danger

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Post by amugs Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:02 pm

Euro saying this about the MDR in the tropics MDR means Main Development Region

Ventrice from WSI says a Kevin Wave is going to hamper development until later August.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Img_2020

Carribean amd GOM are the areas I would favor over the MDR at this point.

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:50 pm

Warm Hotlantic from GOM to Carribean to the Atlantic tropical
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Img_2010

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Post by algae888 Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:48 am

fantasy land gfs...
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:37 am

@algae888 wrote:fantasy land gfs...
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52
jeeze...
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:50 pm

Let's hope it stays fantasy, I'm down the shore.....

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:11 pm

@algae888 wrote:fantasy land gfs...
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52


please keep it fantasy...we will be in Orlando next week... Shocked
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Post by Snow88 Tue Aug 16, 2016 2:37 pm

Looks like the models lost the storm
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Post by amugs Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:23 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Looks like the models lost the storm

They are lost - NHC says get ready cause we are going to track some thing - plus there are multiple LP and low pressure over allon Northern Africa, times are going to start heating up in teh tropics. Remember that the MDR (Major Development Region) is so-so for trop cyclones forming so if the t-stroms make it to caribbean region then we better keep an cyclops out peeps. Look at how warm our water are - YIKES!!

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Two_atl_5d05

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_sst_global_1

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Water Vapor loop - good moisture for this to make it

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 3 Latest72hrs7

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Post by Snow88 Wed Aug 17, 2016 12:38 pm

The waters along the east coast are boiling. Big trouble if a tropical system comes along.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:02 pm

GREAT No No

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:04 pm

We have Fiona, doesn't look to effect US at all Fish storm.  Yeah waters along coast are crazy warm, I wonder how long they will stay that way and if anything will get towards the coast, so far although we are now up to F it has been fairly uneventful and none of those predicted majors have happened yet.  Next few weeks and especailly Sept. into October I think will be interesting and potentially problematic for the east coast.  BTW check off topic threat to see what I just went through since last Friday.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:15 pm

Brought the doom for fantasy land back at 00z, This is from the wave that NHC just started watching.....

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