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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:06 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Gfs_ms10
6Z GFS shows a worse case scenario. God help us if this were to happen.
yeah looking at hi res looks to b in low 940s cat 3 ish maybe 4. Catastrophic if that were to verify but we are all smart enough to know it's just one of the many possibilities on the table. Still eye popping last two runs.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:10 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Gfs_ms10
6Z GFS shows a worse case scenario. God help us if this were to happen.
yeah looking at hi res looks to b in low 940s cat 3 ish maybe 4. Catastrophic if that were to verify but we are all smart enough to know it's just one of the many possibilities on the table. Still eye popping last two runs.

Not nearly that strong. Weak cat 1, check wind maps.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:11 am

There will be three phases to determine the outcome of this storm.  

Phase 1:  

There are still differences between models on both intensity and track regarding what happens to this system over the next 72-84 hrs as it enters the eastern Caribbean.  The outcome of these differences are vitally important beyond this time frame.  Below are the differences between the GFS and Euro vorticity maps at 850mb by hr 72. Notice the differences in just how tight the spin is at 850mb.  How strong the system is as it enters the oval area in the E Caribbean will play a role going forward.  In addition the track into this area, ie: how far N or S will also play a key role in the evolution beyond this time frame and models are still differing from GFS to Euro and from run to run within a given model.  A subtle difference N or S and/or intensity differences, could alter the evolution and subsequent model outputs beyond this time frame.  

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Gfs_z810
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Ecmwf_12

Now before we move to phase 2 lets look at current conditions.  

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Wv-animated
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Wg8shr

97L conts to slowly organize and as per the NHC this morning there is a 90% chance of tropical development within the next 48hrs.  Now how far that development goes is yet to be determined.  I still believe it will cont to struggle and am leaning towards the weaker soln of the euro in the short term as there is still moderate shear out ahead of it and to the N.  That said there is a nice outflow channel in the upper levels on the N side which I leading to nice Upper level divergence and lower level convergence currently.  However as we enter into the Eastern and central Caribean we will have to see what the low level easterlies are doing as it may create a low level divergence that could slow the development as well.  Also if its too close the SA coast it will entrain dry air from the mountains along the coast which would slow the development further.  We will have to see.  Lets shift gears to phase 2 of track and development.

Phase 2:    

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Gfs_z521
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Ecmwf_13

Here is now 500mb at hr 72.  Notice once again the differences in strength and subtle differences in position of the system.  Also take notice that the Ridging and Deep Layer Trough(DLT) over the eastern CONUS is about the same on both models.  As we head out in time we begin to diverge.  

During phase two we have a few key things happening.  First involves what we just dicussed.  Simply stated the stronger and or further N the system is between hr 72-96 the more likely it is to erode the western flank of the Atlantic ridge attacking it from the SW.  Combine that with the fact that the DLT over the E Conus will try to attack the Western flank of the Atlantic ridge from the NW side.

The second key to phase two involves what happens to the DLTmoving forward.  There will be a trough split.  What I mean by that is the main trough will eventually begin to lift out NE, but a piece of that trough will split/break off of the main trough and stay behind in the GOM.  This is modeled to happen on pretty much every important model with differences in how its handled in strength, positioning, and timing.  

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Gfs_z523
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Ecmwf_15

So as you can see by hr 138 the main trough is lifting out to the NE and a piece of it has split and backs up SW.  As you can also see the GFS leaves a much stronger piece and is deeper than the euro.  The result of this, combined with the fact that the GFS has a stronger system in the Caribean which has broken down the Atlantic ridge more, allows the split trough to pull the system N sooner.   Notice the Atlantic ridge on the Euro.  Its still much further west in towards the SE coast which allows the system to cont west in the Caribbean longer before being drawn N by the Trough.  

Now take note in the image above of the Trough along the west coast as this may or may not be an integral part of phase three of the evolution of the track and intensity depending on where the system is as we move ahead in time.  

Phase 3:

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Gfs_z524
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Ecmwf_16

I am not going to get into much detail of phase 3 yet because there simply are too many variables to get through with phases 1 and 2.  I will say that if the system is off the EC somewhere and the timing of the trough is right and esp if that trough tilts negative it will capture the system and pull it back towards the coast.  Part of that soln also involves the Ridge to the N placed such that it blocks the system from escaping OTS so it has time to be captured, and also, not shown here, is how strong of a +PNA ridge west of the trough will there be.  The stronger this ridge the more likely the trough digs and tilts negative which is captured would pull the system NW.  However, if there is a weaker PNA ridge and a more Neutral or even positive tilt, if there is a capture the track would still be more northerly or even NE the more progressive (or positively tilted) the trough.  

You can see the capture soln on the 00z GFS from last night vs the slower soln by the euro which might actually take it into the GOM before being captured and drawn N.  Again waaaaay too much to get through to even discuss much further with phase 3.  What Ill leave you with is the GFS ensembles are clustered off the EC whereas the Euro Ensembles still have a large group making it a GOM track.  Like Al said above all long range solns still on the table.

WE TRACK!!! What a Face


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:28 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:14 am

Luckily the winds are not nearly too strong or extend very far from the center as currently modeled... both would worsen surge.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:25 am

But as we know, its too early to know if itll be 10 miles off our coast, 1000 miles off our coast, or 100 miles off Alabama's coast for all we know. Lots to be determined
as scott pointed out.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:29 am

I'm starting a thread for this system

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:42 am

Oh well the pressure is much lower than thst of a usual cat 1 so it must b post tropical to b weaker winds but lower mb.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh well the pressure is much lower than thst of a usual cat 1 so it must b post tropical to b weaker winds but lower mb.

Jman the scale goes entirely by sustained wind speed, isobars and central pressure are not factored in at all.
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:50 am

On the heels of my Boy Matthew not Nicola (lets make her Itralian) but Oscar

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Ct7CB-vUsAEMNoK

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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:52 am

Nicolette

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:36 pm

Yes we have Nicole, and is 99L marked yet? I am ready for hurricane season to be over if Matthew doesn't give us any excitement. And to me if H5 is being progressive that may be terrible for winter too.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:29 pm

I thought I read that Nicole might be giving Bermuda some trouble...the inlaws are there...supposed to travel home on Thurs..
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yes we have Nicole, and is 99L marked yet?  I am ready for hurricane season to be over if Matthew doesn't give us any excitement.  And to me if H5 is being progressive that may be terrible for winter too.

me too jman..I want snow...and cold!!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:46 pm

I prefer milder cold and snow just cold enough for snow but no 0 degrees -30.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:47 pm

But this tropics thread lol. And we do have a new area behind matthew. Season going out with a bang.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:36 pm

Ahhh, not another one to possibly to track lol, heard was near FL thought that was at 384.  Remember Matthew was forcasted out 384 hrs, so yes we MAY have to watch this one too lol, Euro and GFS both have it developing right around where sandy started at 240 hrs, thats interesting this far out. 1006 and 1007mb.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 31 Next_o10

We got a big digging trough coming towards this one but of course is out in fantasy land for both surface and 500mb levels. One thing that concerns me is it is shown to develop right where Irene and Sandy came from, the deep southern tropics, not a cape verde storm so if it did come to fruition would not be a crazy long tracker, and could be a threat as thats a common area to threaten the US.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:09 pm

^^ GEFS also show that event for later October
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:19 pm

@Snow88 wrote:^^ GEFS also show that event for later October
Big signal on Euro ensembles around 240

Late october/early november in recent years has been our time for major storms. Gonna put y trust in the Euro on this one if it develops.  If the GFS ends up winning out I will just scream lol
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:^^ GEFS also show that event for later October
Big signal on Euro ensembles around 240

Late october/early november in recent years has been our time for major storms. Gonna put y trust in the Euro on this one if it develops.  If the GFS ends up winning out I will just scream lol

GEFS
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html

One storm I can think of is Sandy. What other ones were at the end of October?
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:35 pm

Jmanley, are you talking about the 1009 low?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100812&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:50 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Jmanley, are you talking about the 1009 low?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100812&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

Yes if you watch it evolve on the GFS thats the system that develops. 00z was 1008mb.
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 08, 2016 8:06 pm

Yes well ride the euro and it will show a hit and the gfs will show it ots and it will win and we'll commit weenie .......

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:26 pm

Looks like nicole is go for round 2 hurricane bullseye bermuda. That's a pretty small pin to hit dead on. Wonder if there will b one or two more this year.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:36 pm

JB harping on Western Carribean region for the end game in the next two weeks. Big ridge in East to promote  trop development underneath. Time will tell.

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Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:25 am

GFS develops something and hits Florida at 384
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