NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Page 32 of 33 Previous  1 ... 17 ... 31, 32, 33  Next

Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:45 am

@Snow88 wrote:GFS develops something and hits Florida at 384

Oh hell.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:06 pm




NAO going negative

AO will remain negative

PNA will remain positive
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:54 pm

West coast going to get it from extra tropical cyclone
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Img_20162016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Img_2016

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12135
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GFS develops something and hits Florida at 384

Oh hell.
lol quite a few runs develop a system now. 18z was into Yucatan after stalling for days in carribean.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:27 pm

Not getting sucked in again! Be back when we are within 72 hours geek

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Joe Snow Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GFS develops something and hits Florida at 384

Oh hell.
lol quite a few runs develop a system now. 18z was into Yucatan after stalling for days in carribean.

And we have another one to watch...................
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 856
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:37 am

Time for some rains for the NW coast

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Ecmwf_tprecip_nw_35

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12135
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:47 pm

There is def a signal

Euro/EPS:

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_9
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9


GFS/GEFS:

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Gfs_z500a_namer_33
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:59 pm

Nicole is incredible, by far best looking system this year, look at that enourmous eye. Cat 3 then 2 as it passes near or right over bermuda. Not often they see storms this strong so close/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/html5-vis-short.html
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:10 pm

12z Euro appears to have the trough pull something from carribbean up the coast and into maine very quickly in the next 10 days.  Not sure if thats the system the gfs shows 384 hrs from now still in the caribbean, if so thats quite a time disparity.

euro ensembles also showing some stuff going on closer to 10 days, not 16.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:33 pm

I haven't even looked at the surface maps JMan. Pay less attention to timing at this stage. All images I show above have a ridge in the NE, negative anaomalies underneath, a +PNA ridging signal, and a trough in the heartland. Time stamp to the images I posted above is Oct 20th. +\- 3-5days and you have your time frame where if there is tropical energy percolating in the western caribbbean, GOM or SE coast watch out for development and if develops a possible mechanism exists to bring it up. Timing strength and positioning to all upper level features mentioned are all part of the equation which as we have seen in the past will change between now and then. All one can say is signal exists for development in the long range. Anything else is nonsense.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I haven't even looked at the surface maps JMan. Pay less attention to timing at this stage. All images I show above have a ridge in the NE, negative anaomalies underneath, a +PNA ridging signal, and a trough in the heartland.  Time stamp to the images I posted above is Oct 20th. +\- 3-5days and you have your time frame where if there is tropical energy percolating in the western caribbbean, GOM or SE coast watch out for development and if develops a possible mechanism exists to bring it up. Timing strength and positioning to all upper level features mentioned are all part of the equation which as we have seen in the past will change between now and then. All one can say is signal exists for development in the long range. Anything else is nonsense.  

Yes I understand its only a signal and best to look at the 500mb setup. Was just pointing it out.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:22 pm

Good god Nicole is a cat 4 defying nhc again like matthew and is supposed make direct landfall tonorrow on bermuda. Could b cat 5 at the rate she us intensifying. Wh o saw this coming when she was a measly ts forecasted to dissipate. Wow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:21 am

SNOOZE

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Dtone Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:16 am

Yeah it looks impressive. I sure didnt think itd end up a cat 4.  Still on a bee line for Bermuda? How many hurricanes have ever made actual landfall on the island? They often pass nearby, buts its so tiny a direct hit is rare just off probabilities.
Only around 20 sq miles..about the same size as Manhattan...or about half the size of the Bronx.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:10 pm

She already made landfall as a cat 3, winds 125mph. Dunno status of how things are over there.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Quietace Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes
Its true. Whenever a hurricane comes they pull a sponge bob...




Simple yet effective tactic to prevent massive damage.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:34 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes
Its true. Whenever a hurricane comes they pull a sponge bob...




Simple yet effective tactic to prevent massive damage.

Well yeah they can withstand a very strong storm but a cat 20, that be what 600mph winds? Ya no one is gonna survive that LOL, cant see the video at work but I will see it later cuz I do not get it without seeing it.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by rb924119 Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:10 pm

I think I'm going to post another video outlining my thoughts about the potential next week this evening. Have to get home and set my computer back up first, though haha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:20 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I think I'm going to post another video outlining my thoughts about the potential next week this evening. Have to get home and set my computer back up first, though haha
Will be very interested to see what you have to say cuz although signals are there NHC has nothing marked (though then again their potential is only up to 5 days, nothing there to mark), and the Euro is all over the atlantic with LP systems on the ensembles and all are weak for the most part, does some odd kinda LP connection up the coast on surface.  12z CMC has a hurricane landfall up here near cap cod.  But we all know how the CMC loves to do that, yet CMC was better than GFS with Matthew.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by rb924119 Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:01 pm

I'm having issues with this video. Don't know if I'll be able post it or not. May have to wait until next week Mad Mad Sad Sad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Sorry, guys. I didn't think it would make a difference going from my laptop to my Mac, but apparently they record in different formats. I'll have to try to figure something out. Sorry guys :/ if I can post it I will, otherwise it has to wait.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:13 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes
Its true. Whenever a hurricane comes they pull a sponge bob...




Simple yet effective tactic to prevent massive damage.

This is fantastic

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by rb924119 Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:39 pm

New video:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYZW04aVpLNWVwSEE

Hope it makes sense, isn't too long or confusing, and you all enjoy!! BTW Frank, I'm making a new thread for it lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 32 of 33 Previous  1 ... 17 ... 31, 32, 33  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum