Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:45 am

@Snow88 wrote:GFS develops something and hits Florida at 384

Oh hell.

by **Snow88** Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:06 pm

NAO going negative

AO will remain negative

PNA will remain positive

by **amugs** Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:54 pm

West coast going to get it from extra tropical cyclone
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Img_2016

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GFS develops something and hits Florida at 384

Oh hell.

lol quite a few runs develop a system now. 18z was into Yucatan after stalling for days in carribean.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:27 pm

Not getting sucked in again! Be back when we are within 72 hours geek

by **Joe Snow** Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GFS develops something and hits Florida at 384

Oh hell.
lol quite a few runs develop a system now. 18z was into Yucatan after stalling for days in carribean.

And we have another one to watch...................

by **amugs** Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:37 am

Time for some rains for the NW coast

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Ecmwf_tprecip_nw_35

by **sroc4** Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:47 pm

There is def a signal

Euro/EPS:

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_9

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9

GFS/GEFS:

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Gfs_z500a_namer_33

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 32 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:59 pm

Nicole is incredible, by far best looking system this year, look at that enourmous eye. Cat 3 then 2 as it passes near or right over bermuda. Not often they see storms this strong so close/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/html5-vis-short.html

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:10 pm

12z Euro appears to have the trough pull something from carribbean up the coast and into maine very quickly in the next 10 days. Not sure if thats the system the gfs shows 384 hrs from now still in the caribbean, if so thats quite a time disparity.

euro ensembles also showing some stuff going on closer to 10 days, not 16.

by **sroc4** Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:33 pm

I haven't even looked at the surface maps JMan. Pay less attention to timing at this stage. All images I show above have a ridge in the NE, negative anaomalies underneath, a +PNA ridging signal, and a trough in the heartland. Time stamp to the images I posted above is Oct 20th. +\- 3-5days and you have your time frame where if there is tropical energy percolating in the western caribbbean, GOM or SE coast watch out for development and if develops a possible mechanism exists to bring it up. Timing strength and positioning to all upper level features mentioned are all part of the equation which as we have seen in the past will change between now and then. All one can say is signal exists for development in the long range. Anything else is nonsense.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I haven't even looked at the surface maps JMan. Pay less attention to timing at this stage. All images I show above have a ridge in the NE, negative anaomalies underneath, a +PNA ridging signal, and a trough in the heartland. Time stamp to the images I posted above is Oct 20th. +\- 3-5days and you have your time frame where if there is tropical energy percolating in the western caribbbean, GOM or SE coast watch out for development and if develops a possible mechanism exists to bring it up. Timing strength and positioning to all upper level features mentioned are all part of the equation which as we have seen in the past will change between now and then. All one can say is signal exists for development in the long range. Anything else is nonsense.

Yes I understand its only a signal and best to look at the 500mb setup. Was just pointing it out.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:22 pm

Good god Nicole is a cat 4 defying nhc again like matthew and is supposed make direct landfall tonorrow on bermuda. Could b cat 5 at the rate she us intensifying. Wh o saw this coming when she was a measly ts forecasted to dissipate. Wow.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:21 am

SNOOZE

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE

Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

by **Dtone** Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:16 am

Yeah it looks impressive. I sure didnt think itd end up a cat 4. Still on a bee line for Bermuda? How many hurricanes have ever made actual landfall on the island? They often pass nearby, buts its so tiny a direct hit is rare just off probabilities.
Only around 20 sq miles..about the same size as Manhattan...or about half the size of the Bronx.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:10 pm

She already made landfall as a cat 3, winds 125mph. Dunno status of how things are over there.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes

by **Quietace** Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes

Its true. Whenever a hurricane comes they pull a sponge bob...

Simple yet effective tactic to prevent massive damage.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:34 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes
Its true. Whenever a hurricane comes they pull a sponge bob...

Simple yet effective tactic to prevent massive damage.

Well yeah they can withstand a very strong storm but a cat 20, that be what 600mph winds? Ya no one is gonna survive that LOL, cant see the video at work but I will see it later cuz I do not get it without seeing it.

by **rb924119** Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:10 pm

I think I'm going to post another video outlining my thoughts about the potential next week this evening. Have to get home and set my computer back up first, though haha

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:20 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I think I'm going to post another video outlining my thoughts about the potential next week this evening. Have to get home and set my computer back up first, though haha

Will be very interested to see what you have to say cuz although signals are there NHC has nothing marked (though then again their potential is only up to 5 days, nothing there to mark), and the Euro is all over the atlantic with LP systems on the ensembles and all are weak for the most part, does some odd kinda LP connection up the coast on surface. 12z CMC has a hurricane landfall up here near cap cod. But we all know how the CMC loves to do that, yet CMC was better than GFS with Matthew.

by **rb924119** Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:01 pm

I'm having issues with this video. Don't know if I'll be able post it or not. May have to wait until next week Mad

Sorry, guys. I didn't think it would make a difference going from my laptop to my Mac, but apparently they record in different formats. I'll have to try to figure something out. Sorry guys :/ if I can post it I will, otherwise it has to wait.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:13 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:SNOOZE
Well its not for Bermuda! Appreciate the power and beauty of these beasts wether they are over us or not, lol smart alek lol

Bermuda is built to withstand category 20 hurricanes
Its true. Whenever a hurricane comes they pull a sponge bob...

Simple yet effective tactic to prevent massive damage.

This is fantastic

by **rb924119** Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:39 pm

New video:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYZW04aVpLNWVwSEE

Hope it makes sense, isn't too long or confusing, and you all enjoy!! BTW Frank, I'm making a new thread for it lol

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