NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Page 2 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by Snow88 Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:42 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Big snowstorm on the Euro
Yup, EURO holds serve & is a bit west of last run. Thanks, snow88, btw for always being up late with me!  What a Face

What a Face What a Face What a Face
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Xba3wx
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:44 am

@Snow88 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Big snowstorm on the Euro
Yup, EURO holds serve & is a bit west of last run. Thanks, snow88, btw for always being up late with me!  What a Face

What a Face What a Face What a Face
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Xba3wx
HOLY SMOKES. 
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by Snow88 Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:48 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Big snowstorm on the Euro
Yup, EURO holds serve & is a bit west of last run. Thanks, snow88, btw for always being up late with me!  What a Face

What a Face What a Face What a Face
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Xba3wx
HOLY SMOKES. 

15-20 for NYC
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by algae888 Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:48 am

hey I up too!
cmc ens...
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_17
24 hr acc precip
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Gem-ens_apcpn24_us_18
that's .75 into city on ensembles. WOW!
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by algae888 Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:49 am

soul and snow i'm hearing temps will be cold so ratio's may be more than 10:1
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by algae888 Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:51 am

gefs acc precip .5+ into city
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_17
ens members
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_16
look at that cluster south of LI
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:52 am

@algae888 wrote:I soul and snow i'm hearing temps will be cold so ratio's may be more than 10:1
Hey Al! Yeah, one helluva 00z suite.  cheers
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by algae888 Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:57 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@algae888 wrote:I soul and snow i'm hearing temps will be cold so ratio's may be more than 10:1
Hey Al! Yeah, one helluva 00z suite.  cheers
yes excellent runs. onset of precip inside off 4 days. euro usually deadly at this range.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 17, 2016 3:01 am

Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by 2004blackwrx Thu Mar 17, 2016 3:30 am

Shouldnt be suprised with the way this winter is folks north and west of nyc are missing out on the jackpot.

2004blackwrx
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 505
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-01-14
Location : Wappinger NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 5:40 am

Wow nice to see euro hold. 15 I'll Take It IN A second!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 5:42 am

Al were we any closer to a plase? Also euro shows this could b the b word especially out to cape cod holy smokes on those winds.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by frank 638 Thu Mar 17, 2016 5:47 am

Good write up frank I would also take 15 inches of snow this has been a strange march from 80 deg to a snowstorm

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2306
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:07 am

The phase was closer on the EURO. Got captured around 108 hours. Wow, I think GVS might come on board by 12z or 00z today

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:08 am

I'll be busy at work today so don't expect any updates until tonight. The blog has all my thoughts

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:09 am

Look what happens with the low when it's a full phase. Sub 970mb. It's in the 990mb range at our Latitude. We're so close to somethihg huge 

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by Radz Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:30 am

Nice write up and nice trends! Hope we get a bump west today and an earlier phase Thumbs up
Radz
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 927
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 17, 2016 7:01 am

When Euro Op and Ens match this closely I take notice. Look at the CCB on the op...text book!!! Not to mention having the Ukie in hand. CMC having difficulty focusing the LP center with the lead wave that escapes OTS vs the main energy embedded in the mean trough. Not worried. Still many details to be worked out, but buckle up for 12z.

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Surfac10
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Surfac11
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Eps_0012
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Ens_mm10
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Ens_me10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:48 am

Still concerns me a bit that the CMC and GFS are nowhere near the Euro solution and we are still 3+ days out, does anyone else feel this way or is the fact that Euro and ensembles being pretty close take over on the other models? Frank u mentioned if the NAM went out further it would be huge, it looked like a earlier phase was going to happen was that what would have happened? Its amazing how much we have been using the NAM this year, its actually done pretty well.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by HectorO Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:50 am

@2004blackwrx wrote:If this storm does happen there could be issues with the trees. They are starting to bud early and we all know what happens when the trees have added weight.

They're just budding though, it's not like they'll be fully bloomed by Sunday. I'm sure the trees will be fine. All I see is branches where I'm at.
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 917
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:51 am

@Radz wrote:Nice write up and nice trends! Hope we get a bump west today and an earlier phase Thumbs up

IF we get an earlier phase we will be looking at a epic storm, like frank said sub 970 (would be wicked B word conditions with that). I just have a feeling about this one (At least Godzilla IMO), I did guess two big storms in contest just too bad this one isn't in the contest time frame. 1958 blizzard was in same time frame and history does repeat itself, however 1958 was days worth of snowfall, this wont be the case here.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by HectorO Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:52 am

Is there supposed to be some cold air getting sucked in for this storm? Right now the temps look a bit warm for it to be just an all snow event.
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 917
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:53 am

@HectorO wrote:
@2004blackwrx wrote:If this storm does happen there could be issues with the trees. They are starting to bud early and we all know what happens when the trees have added weight.

They're just budding though, it's not like they'll be fully bloomed by Sunday. I'm sure the trees will be fine. All I see is branches where I'm at.

It is also going to be cold enough that I do not think it will be a heavy wet snow like that of 1958, may be a little damp but I do not think it will be a issue unless we get a sub 970 storm then winds play in and that's a whole nother story.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:54 am

@HectorO wrote:Is there supposed to be some cold air getting sucked in for this storm? Right now the temps look a bit warm for it to be just an all snow event.

No theres going to be a huge injection (as rayno says) of cold air coming in fri through sat it will be plenty cold as most of it is happening late day and overnight.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:55 am

I believe temps tomorrow morning are only go be in the low 30s upper 20s.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 2 Empty Re: March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum