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March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:16 am

Ryan Maue from wxbell is going to run  a test operational run of the upgraded Euro today for this storm, if he is getting hyped you know somethings up.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:22 am

Fwiw, 9z SREF at 87 hours. Looks like the Euro or maybe even slightly west.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087&image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160317+09+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:24 am

Wow. What does the color coding indicate on those are maps?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:25 am

We will b in range with the Sr models in the next day or so. And sat will b a big day.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:37 am

Bernies latest video he does not seem as intrigued as he was yesterday, Guess he is just being cautious prolly cuz the Euro is the only major model of the 3 showing a huge storm. Lets hope it holds ground, he thinks its not coming far west either.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:02 am

Wow LGA Sref members out to its end has max at 2.21 LE and a low of .52 LE, that's a big spread but makes a call for a 6+ event pretty clear FWIW.
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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:06 am

jman, and max??
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:11 am

@jake732 wrote:jman, and max??

I said 2.21 max, meaning 22.1 inches if all snow. But a large majority are less than 6 inches and a few are 0.
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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:12 am

can u post map?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:28 am

Its not a map its a graph not sure let me see, but its really not reliable at this time the SR models really only become good around 24hrs out or less.
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:30 am

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_084_0000

JMA - IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION THEN WE HAVE SNOW TO RAIN FOR THE COAST AND A BOMB FOR INLAND AREAS AND THOSE JUST OFF THE COAST.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:42 am

Those just off the coast? So people in boats? LOL
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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:46 am

I do not want any any any rain all same event plz!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:48 am

I didn't think precip type was going to be a issue, so overnight it would change to rain that doesn't make a lot of sense as its at its coldest.
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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:49 am

Idk sometimes on the coast u never know.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:50 am

@amugs wrote:March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 GZ_D5_PN_084_0000

JMA - IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION THEN WE HAVE SNOW TO RAIN FOR THE COAST AND A BOMB FOR INLAND AREAS AND THOSE JUST OFF THE COAST.

that depicts a very weak storm too. Oh I see the phase coming into the 1004mb, so assuming this went out further it would intensify very quickly, am I right?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:25 am

12z NAM does not look promising, FWIW not worth posting this far out.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:53 am

@jmanley32 wrote:12z NAM does not look promising, FWIW not worth posting this far out.

I disagree Jman. Ill post why in a moment

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:03 pm

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28

Remember what the surface maps looked like at this time pre blizzard Jan23rd. The heaviest precip was being centered east when in reality it came back to be associated with the deepening surface low. With NAM in its extended range this should correct even if the 500mb maps stay the same.

Notice the position of the LP S of LI and where the heaviest convection is to its east. above. Now look below at the energy to which the surface is trying to focus and where the LP center is. It just doesnt make sense. The LP center IMO should be futher S and W along the coast based off the energy rounding the trough at hr84. If what I think is correct extrapolated the N energy should be phasing with the base of the trough over the next 6-12hrs leading to the deep LP the Euro shows. We will see as the NAM comes better in range over the next 24-36hrs

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Namcon11

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:09 pm

12z GFS comes in west of its last run by 50-75 miles.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:19 pm

Upton's Twitter graphic just now; talk about laments terms lol

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Image12
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:20 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:12z GFS comes in west of its last run by 50-75 miles.

Surface maps still doesnt quite add up to 500mb and I still think GFS playing catch up even at 500mb.  Id still take this:

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_neus_26

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:25 pm

CMC coming in much more amped compared to 00z Pay particular attention to how much further N the 552 line is around Indiana/Ohio

old hr 54:
March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Gem_z500_vort_us_10

New Hr 42:

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Gem_z500_vort_us_8


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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:27 pm

Yep. GFS should of shown a stronger surface reflection upon looking at the improved H5 levels. This crazy model is playing catch up with itself!
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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:29 pm

Oh CANADA!!!!


Old:

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Gem_z500_vort_us_16

New:

March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1 - Page 3 Gem_z500_vort_us_14

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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