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March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

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Grselig
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Post by amugs Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:28 am

Scott and Doc excellent posts.
I am done for a while me self after coming out of self imposed exile after Feb and the Morch - March torch- which will happen again the end of this week Thursday.
The models imho have been atrocious hamlndling the  pattern and systems. It is what it it is and another one has gone poof on us. Reminds me of 2014 after the Feb 14 storm we sucked dry and cold from a strong PV that squashed us. Big Momma has other plans and it is a shame because the players were on the field to produce. What a fn tease!!
All my friends at even my principal at work put in his weekly letter to the staff that he hopes the storm is insignificant so we don't have a day off and lose a day on our memorial weekend!! In my 23 years I have never seen that bad juju all around!!
NAO trended weaker, sv was faster, pna ridge broke down like.my brothers old 1985 Ford tempo, what a pice of garbage car,  and people all sere saying NOOOOO to snow.
I have learned a lot from this winter and I have let this board down in a sense by not being able to decipher the atmospheric conditions in this nino paytern.
Rb called it two days ago kudos to you my man. You saw something with your expertise that others such as me self weren't able to see.
Be good my friends and back to r & r after a tough winter season. Ciao Ciao

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:45 am

Well said Mugs. Winter is like a poker hand, we were dealt a bad hand this year. Let's shuffle the cards (pattern) and hope we come up aces next winter!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:49 am

The only thing I have to add is last night I was out and as the EURO model came in I asked the barnteder to "line em' up" 

Sure enough the EURO caved to the GFS and the rest of the night was history. Now I need McDonald's. 

I think we'll see some snow but it's a far cry from what could have happened.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:56 am

The Euro and EPS have been terrible this whole winter. Many people hug the both of them to no end. Why upgrade a model if it isnt broken?
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Post by Snow88 Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:56 am

9z SREF shifted slightly west.


Mean is 0.55 QPF for LGA


EPS still has 2-4 for NYC. Foreign models still have 1-3/2-4 but the US models dont have anything
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Post by frank 638 Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:49 am

what a joke I was excited to have one more Godzilla event now all I'm hearing is 1 to 2 inches of snow. just bring on spring I hope we never have a winter like this ever againbecause itwas a big disappointment

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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:53 am

The twelve z rgem is a moderate snow event for New York City metro can post on my phone
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:58 am

Nam also shifted West now focuses on the second wave gets it 995 MB south of Long Island 4 to 7 inches Central Southern New Jersey 2 to 4 inches Suffolk County. System looks much slower looks to be some interaction with the northern stream as precipitation doesn't start until Sunday night into Monday. Skinsfan and ace you look good for this one
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:28 am

You guys give up too fast. The rgem is 3 to 6 for the immediate New York City metro and up to a foot on Eastern Long Island
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:37 am

If this thing comes back west, I am going to looooooose it. The NAM's last jump was COMICAL.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:44 am

algae888 wrote:You guys give up too fast. The rgem is 3 to 6 for the immediate New York City metro and up to a foot on Eastern Long Island

I gave up on this Al and still do up here in the HV.Yet again we would be screwed as this is still S and E of us.Coastal jersey and LI jackpot yet again with this scenario.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:54 am

Doc I gave up way back. The last 2 years or so have seen this south and east situation will it end in the future? not so sure. Got the flu and now can't keep anything down been a rough year.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:00 pm

jimv45 wrote:Doc I gave up way back. The last 2 years or so have seen this south and east situation will it end in the future? not so sure. Got the flu and now can't keep anything down been a rough year.

I hope you feel better soon!!
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:01 pm

Sorry boys and girls, doesn't really matter so much where the low is, upper dynamics not there until way late and then its off New England coast.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:16 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:If this thing comes back west, I am going to looooooose it. The NAM's last jump was COMICAL.

The jump was interesting from 6Z to 12Z.  Here is hr 54 of the 6Z NAM valid 3/21 8 AM EDT:

March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 7 Nam03110

And here is hr 48 of the 12Z NAM valid 3/21 8 AM EDT:

March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 7 Nam03111

Quite the jump.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:24 pm

jimv45 wrote:Doc I gave up way back. The last 2 years or so have seen this south and east situation will it end in the future? not so sure. Got the flu and now can't keep anything down been a rough year.

Sorry about that flu,jim, it really beats the crap out of you,I know. This S and E trend is solidly in place until it's decisively broken with three or four snowstorms favoring us like in the distant past.No indication of that now and we will have to wait until next winter to see.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:25 pm

And then the GGEM arrived and said Laughing


I CANNOT TAKE THIS ANYMORE! 
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:25 pm

One issue is the timing moved up so even if it does snow it likely will not stick in a late March sun angle. Whatever snow amounts you see on models that is accumulations on grass most likely.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:27 pm

What fat lady

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:29 pm

Unless of course it snows THIS much...


March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 7 Image17
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:30 pm

March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 7 Cmc_sn10


Latest GGEM


The GFS shows 0 inches and the GEM shows 6-12 inches. 


This storm defines our winter. 

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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:One issue is the timing moved up so even if it does snow it likely will not stick in a late March sun angle. Whatever snow amounts you see on models that is accumulations on grass most likely.
Frank actually the models slowed it down so most of the precip falls overnight Sunday into Monday morning that's why this thing is trending back West and stronger the northern stream has a chance to interact with it and it deepens the low 10 millibars in about 12 hours
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 7 Cmc_sn10


Latest GGEM


The GFS shows 0 inches and the GEM shows 6-12 inches. 


This storm defines our winter. 

Just when I think I recovered from St. Paddy's Day, I need to grab the bottle again! These swings are just crazy.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:36 pm

Frank's right though. This truly epitomizes our winter season. Never seen anything like it.
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Post by algae888 Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:36 pm

The setup reminds me a little bit of the blizzard in January ( models don't know which low to focus on) where the models had the storm then all of them lost it until the nam showed it 3 days out. This time the nam didn't have it and I think models will correct in the next 12 to 24 hours. I still like my 4 to 8 inches for the New York City metro
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:37 pm

March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 7 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:41 pm

The main difference I can see between the gfs and GGEM is the northern energy is sharper on the gem and tries to partially phase with the southern eneegy. This may tug the surface low to develop closer to the coast.

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