2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

A surface low is going to develop in the southeast and track up the coast crossing the BM. As it does so, a swath of snow will spread from NJ through NYC and southern New England. On and off rain and snow showers are expected Sunday. By mid to late afternoon, any rain should change to snow and pick up in intensity as we go through the night. By nightfall the surface low should also deepen and throw back heavier snow rates. This will not be a major storm like models originally depicted, but it should be a decent one for most of Long Island into Boston. It will be nice to see some white covering the landscapes again!

Here is the snow map I went with. A last minute west trend this afternoon helped push the 3-6" amounts further west into NJ. There is lots of PVA within the trough but it will remain slightly positively tilted. The lack of consolidation of the upper energy within the base of the trough is one reason why the surface low remains unorganized / weak. There also is no phase with the northern branch.

Start time on the map is when I believe precip will change to all snow and pick up in intensity. Rain and snow showers are possible as early as 10am tomorrow morning.



Enjoy the snow. Should be a fun one to track.

rgem held it's ground li special...

Vinnydula wrote:Start time?

It is on the map

Frank..thank you for the map(forgot to originally state)why do you think the tv mets are underrating this storm..they make it seem like its only a tip of long island storm...and do you think it is strange..were is syosnow94-jim..not heard from him this storm..this is in his back yard..hope he is ok...(is this part banter)

Frank excellent post and map u made let's hope for the best snow wise

weatherwatchermom wrote:Frank.. why do you think the tv mets are underrating this storm..they make it seem like its only a tip of long island storm...and do you think it is strange..were is syosnow94-jim..not heard from him this storm..

Some believe the snow will not stick at all - even if it does fall at night. Others are not sold on the west trend that began at 12z today. To be honest, 500mb is not the greatest. I rather people be over prepared than under prepared that is why I rather be on the bullish end. I do feel pretty confident in the low end totals being achieved.

I am not sure where James is.

frank 638 wrote:Frank excellent post and map u made let's hope for the best snow wise

Thank you.

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Frank.. why do you think the tv mets are underrating this storm..they make it seem like its only a tip of long island storm...and do you think it is strange..were is syosnow94-jim..not heard from him this storm..

Some believe the snow will not stick at all - even if it does fall at night. Others are not sold on the west trend that began at 12z today. To be honest, 500mb is not the greatest. I rather people be over prepared than under prepared that is why I rather be on the bullish end. I do feel pretty confident in the low end totals being achieved.

I am not sure where James is.

frank 638 wrote:Frank excellent post and map u made let's hope for the best snow wise

Thank you.

thank you..I think the same way you do...better to be a little over prepared than be caught in a bad spot..thank you and happy tracking..

GFS is east.

Snow Anymore info on the GFS. More east than last run?

Ukie has a tight gradient. Good run from NYC east . way less precip west of NYC. GGEM is also good from NYC east. GEFS and GEPS also east.

Don't have access of snow maps but the 6z Nam came west.

Hearing the nam is west giving snj cnj big hits. Can anyone confirm

jake732 wrote:Hearing the nam is west giving snj  cnj  big  hits. Can anyone confirm

Nam showing about 5-7 inches in that area

Bernie just tweeted me for cnj snj a few inches. Y is nam showing more? Does he not trust it?

Well that's what the nam shows, that doesn't make it the reality!

docstox12 wrote:it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

That's the new normal, doc. We should really look into why every storm has screwed N & W areas the past few years. I am starting to believe it's not just bad luck.

Frank, can we trust that map??? Shows big snow