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2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:09 pm

Dusting here in Stony Brook, snowing but not intense.
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Post by snow247 Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:13 pm

Light snow, not sticking. 35*.
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:13 pm

34* and snowing moderately - light covering so far. Get me one inch you biag.

If this was mid Dec we'd be out of our gord!!!

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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:29 pm

33*. Very light snow. Sticking on grass and cars

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:16 pm

I posted this on facebook about 15 minutes ago:

I'll tell you this, looking at the current radar, I am doubtful that NYC will get the 2-4" of snow that I thought would happen last night. Yes, it has the band of snow right over me here in Bellerose, but the snow will have a hard time sticking on pavement so it would mainly be on colder surfaces such as the grass and car tops. And that's if there is any snow accumulation at all. As for eastern Long Island, a couple of inches of snow are possible but I do not expect the isolated 6"+ snow amounts that I thought were possible last night.


2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 6 Wxbell10

Over the past week, I have been carefully monitoring the potential for snow during this time. Over the last couple of years, I have gained a gradual understanding not only of surface features of snowstorms, but also the upper level features, which are brought up not only in the “Northeast Snowstorms” by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini, but also on the “NJ Strong Weather Forum” from co-admins Frank and Scott, both of whom do an outstanding job of explaining the dynamics of pending snowstorms. Last Sunday, I took a look at the upper level features on the EURO model run and saw three features that made it seemed ripe for a potential snowstorm: The 50/50 low, the negatively tilted trough, and the western ridge. I have highlighted these three features below. This image is valid for 8 AM today (hr 168):

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 6 12zeur10

When looking at more recent EURO runs, they seem to have lost the negatively tilted trough and the 50/50 low is further to the north. This image is from last night valid for 8 PM tonight (hr 24):
2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 6 12zeur10


A few days ago when I made the post about the potential that we could be facing at this time, a lot models were showing 6-12”+ of snow throughout the NYC region. For personal regions, I can’t really put as much emphasis on this during the work week and I have to save it for the weekends. It has a recurring them for much of the winter for snowstorms 4-7 days out to lose their punch as time gets closer. This was no exception. We went from the aforementioned 6-12”+ snow expectation from last Wednesday to Thursday to the little snow expectation from last Friday to the 3-6” snow expectation from yesterday to the result we have now: little to no snow accumulation in NYC. 


Personally, I will remember this winter as a generally dull winter with the exception of the January 22nd-23rd blizzard, which is a favorite of mine. Yes, there were some other snow events, but they didn’t quite meet my expectations. We are that point in the year were I it won’t snow, I want warmer weather. And we will have just that as next Wednesday into Thursday temperatures in NYC will reach into the 60s. And I will welcome this warmth with open arms!


I’m not saying that we are completely done with snow until next fall as April snow has happened before. However, with time, it gets much tougher to get it as it generally gets much warmer. If there is another storm threat in the near-future I will be sure to monitor you on it. I would like to thank you all for bearing with me in what has been an awkward back and forth shift in the models over the last week.


-Mike 


PS: To the members of the board, I do not by any means have the expertise skill of upper level features that you two have so if you any comments of my 500 mb map discussion maps feel free to leave them below.

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:34 pm

Jeff Smith said tonight NYC 1-3 still but added most of it would be on grass
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Post by NJBrian Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:50 pm

Flurries here, and only sticking to grass and grill for now

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 21, 2016 12:42 am

Cruel joke.

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 6 BelQLcO
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Post by goalscore Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:06 am

2 inches on grass, 1 inch on pavement. 15 miles northeast of new haven. Sticking on everything and radars intensifying.

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Post by snow247 Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:52 am

Light coating on colder surfaces.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:45 am

A coating on grass and cars. A big disappointment after all the late nights of tracking. I give up. Mercifully I hope this is the end of winter. white flag
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Post by frank 638 Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:45 am

Only got a coating of snow manily on grassy area car tops   but it does look like a winter wonderland .32 and light snow

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Post by frank 638 Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:46 am

I am  ready for spring what big bust

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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:51 am

27.1, 83% 29.53F

Barely a dusting, maybe 879 flakes total on my property.I've shaken more lint out of dustmops.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:56 am

31.4*F  Ended with about 2.75" on grassy surfaces only. Still light snow falling.

 This winter must end!!!   Yet it hints at yet the possibility of another gray hair inducing time frame. ugg


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:57 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:57 am

Doc BTW thank you for the kind words the other day.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:17 am

just a light coating on the cars and deck....31* I love winter, but it is now time for spring..all hope for me is gone of any last fling... flower flower flower
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Post by Dtone Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:23 am

Total for this event is
Trace.

Did get a light coating on some cars and trees, but nothing on the ground not even on grass. Ground acclumation is what counts so a trace of snow it is.
It snowed light to mod most the night but just to mild. Marginal temps  and light snow dont cut it in late March. Esp in an above avg month with warm ground.
33* cloudy now.

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Post by Radz Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:55 am

32° trace-coating on cars, grass, and roofs...
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Post by brownie Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:11 am

Dusting on grass and cars. Nothing on any pavement.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:46 am

Accumulated about a coating on cold surfaces of slushly snow last night, was kinda nice to see snow fall for most likely the last time and not cause traffic problems (roads just wet), looking forward to warming temps myself.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:06 am

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 6 2ry3d5d
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:08 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 6 March_20th_snow_map

Enjoy the snow. Should be a fun one to track.

BUST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Frustrating season. EURO and EURO Ens, a superior suite, show 6-12" of snow as late as Thursday and we end with ZERO!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:23 am

Not your fault Frank, you did the best you could, everyone was talking this up through Friday. Bust it was, but lets move onto spring no more, I need sleep. lol
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:27 am

Yep a tough season Frank. Let's hope this disappointing season is over and we can put it to bed. Even with the big blizzard in January, I downgraded this season to a D. Way to many cutters and OTS storms not to mention much of this dreadful winter was a blowtorch.
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