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Snow Showers Saturday?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:50 pm

Let's talk about the possibility of seeing snow showers on Saturday. And yes, a minor accumulation of an inch or two is also possible. 


Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_z500a_namer_13

The cold front coming through our area tomorrow night will reinforce cold air over our region for the weekend. The +PNA/-EPO combo in the west, as well as the stout ridge into Greenland, will help force the PV into our latitudes. As the PV drops into southeast Canada, the trough will go negative and we'll have a chance to see an inverted trough bring snow showers to the area. 

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_asnow_neus_15

Most of you know these things are impossible to predict. Where does the heavy band of snow form? I actually think it will be over a broad area, but accumulations will be for a specific area under heavier returns. April snow during the day is tough to accumulate south of NYC. 

We'll see what happens

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Post by Snow88 Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:05 pm

nam is 6+ for nyc lol http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2016040700&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=
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Post by Snow88 Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:59 pm

GFS has 6+ for coastal SNE and inland areas. 1-3 for the NYC area. Low goes right over NYC. Southern areas get more than NYC on this run.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2016040700&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=
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Post by Snow88 Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:02 am

Wow GFS
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Post by Snow88 Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:07 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160407+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

Beautiful closed low
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Post by Snow88 Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:38 am

GGEM is on board with 2-4 inches for NYC area with more to the north
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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:37 am

This dont look like NO snow showers to my little snow eye?? Sharp Cut off this time S & E - BOOYAHHH!! GFS onto something here

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10


Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_asnow_neus_13

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Post by Snow88 Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:36 am

Upton is going with 1-3 inches for NYC on Saturday


A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE SIGNALING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING OVER OR JUST S OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...THE WET BULB EFFECT FROM FALLING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 30S AREA WIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN LIGHT ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS
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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:13 pm

H5 - HOLY SMMMMMMMOKES - again we aint seein' no snow showers here peeps with this look - a closed low that rounds the base - this is evolving into something much bigger !!

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_z500_vort_neus_10

JYIKKESS SCOOBIE !!

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_z500_vort_neus_11

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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:15 pm

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10

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Post by Snow88 Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:16 pm

This looks great

Snow Showers Saturday? 1zvba08
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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:16 pm

COULD IT BE THE MOST HISTORIC ONE WEEK STRETCH OF APRIL FOR SOME???
3 SNOW EVENTS IN ONE WEEK??

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_asnow_neus_12

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:35 pm

Not buying any of this. The accumulations will be in the higher elevations and those located N&W of NYC. Maybe 2-4 inches, and 4+ into NEPA and mid Hudson Valley. The City and the rest of us will see snow showers mixed with rain. Maybe a coating

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Post by dkodgis Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:51 pm

If I get snow north of I-84 then I am Mickey Mouse.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:30 pm

Lol TWC has for my location 3-5" of snow Saturday.

We'll see. I won't hold my breath probably cars and grass if lucky
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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:50 pm

Euro has absolutely and a - shredded out piece of poop system - 24 hours ago it had much more the area - what a terrible model it has become or has it??

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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:52 pm

@amugs wrote:Euro has absolutely and a - shredded out piece of poop system - 24 hours ago it had much more the area - what a terrible model it has become or has it??

Snow Showers Saturday? Ecmwf_T850_neus_3

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:35 pm

Until the Euro shows some improvement, I'm just not buying it. It has been terrible the past few months, and I'm done with it....

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:58 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Until the Euro shows some improvement, I'm just not buying it. It has been terrible the past few months, and I'm done with it....
The Euro has been more or less terrible since superstorm Sandy.
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Post by Quietace Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:23 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Until the Euro shows some improvement, I'm just not buying it. It has been terrible the past few months, and I'm done with it....
The Euro has been more or less terrible since superstorm Sandy.
.......Last 365 days(.912 vs .885)....ytd .933 vs .904

Snow Showers Saturday? Ecmwf_gfs_nh_f120

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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:57 pm

GFS GFS GFS BUY AMERICAN!!!!

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_asnow_neus_13

I SCREWED UP THE LAST POST JUST REALIZED THIS!!

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12

Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13



Last edited by amugs on Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by algae888 Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:14 pm

mugs that's yesterdays gfs. here is today's...
Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_asnow_neus_12
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Post by algae888 Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:16 pm

it's down to gfs vs all other models. gfs is strongest and furthest north with s/w. only reason I give it a chance is that gfs does well with northern stream systems. however it's all alone atm.
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Post by amugs Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:03 pm

@algae888 wrote:it's down to gfs vs all other models. gfs is strongest and furthest north with s/w. only reason I give it a chance is that gfs does well with northern stream systems. however it's all alone atm.

UKIE IS ALONG WITH IT AS WELL

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Post by amugs Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:32 am

Zoo snow hole over us - cant make this sht up!!
CMC
Snow Showers Saturday? Gem_asnow_neus_25

GFS says what??
Snow Showers Saturday? Gfs_asnow_neus_23


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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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