Snow Showers Saturday?

algae888 wrote:it's down to gfs vs all other models. gfs is strongest and furthest north with s/w. only reason I give it a chance is that gfs does well with northern stream systems. however it's all alone atm.

UKIE IS ALONG WITH IT AS WELL

Zoo snow hole over us - cant make this sht up!!
CMC


GFS says what??

Latest SREF have more precip than previous runs

WOW nam

The 12z Nam shifted North has a 3 to 6 inch swath of snow from just north of Philly through North Central New Jersey the borough's and into Long Island

As I stated yesterday the GFS usually handles Northern stream systems much better than the other models so while it was alone the shift North so far this morning is not very surprising. Also inverted troughs usually set up somewhere in Southern New England not in Southern New Jersey

Boundary layer temps when the heaviest precip falls on the NAM are pretty warm for eastern NJ, NYC, and LI. But, 925mb and 850mb temps are pretty cold for most except coastal and southern NJ. Overall, I think eastern NJ, NYC, and LI will see a C-1" or 2. Western NJ, NEPA, and HV could see 2-4, with pockets of 5"+ in eastern PA.

Hopefully it continues shifting north

The NW shift in teh models within 24 hrs we are seeing once again overall- GFS really has not wavered.

@Al - so true - GFS handles Northern Vorts better - question to all why is this, Ray, Scott, Frank??

Okay this is on crack or is onto something h5 looks very interesting here and means business if this holds.

It'll be interesting as to how the Mets will handle tomorrow's weather as they are scheduled to host the Phillies tomorrow at 7:10 PM. Interestingly enough, tomorrow is the 20-year anniversary of the 1996 Yankees home opener in the snow.

amugs wrote:The NW shift in teh models within 24 hrs we are seeing once again overall- GFS really has not wavered.

@Al - so true - GFS handles Northern Vorts better - question to all why is this, Ray, Scott, Frank??

Okay this is on crack or is onto something h5 looks very interesting here and means business if this holds.

I just think the algorithms or diagnostics of the GFS favor sampling for northern jet energies than southern one's. One thing is for certain, it has not wavered at all. Should be a nice day seeing the snow fall tomorrow. Still not buying the stickage aspect of the storm some of these models are showing though.

LOL at the hi res Nam. NJ gets several inches.

RGEM is good for interior areas

The jackpot for tomorrow should be anyone living near and along I-80 West in New Jersey heading towards Pennsylvania.

Today's GFS looks like the nam. 3 to 6 inches from Nassau County through the city Northern New Jersey around 80 West to the Pennsylvania border. The jackpot is just north of Philly where it shows 10 inches. The para GFS looks nothing like the regular GFS much further south like the rgem. comical

Everything's going to depend on where those Heavy band setup. If you look at almost all the models they have snow in central New Jersey and rain in northern New Jersey or snow on the South Shore of Long Island and rain on the North Shore of Long Island. That almost never happens except in marginal situations like these with surface temperatures are above freezing and we need heavy rates to bring the cold air from a loft should be fun to nowcast this. someone is going to jackpot big time anyone's guess right now. Nam and GFS  spit out over 1 inch LE for this event in some places

Lakewood Weather: GOOD AFTERNOON http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/04/good-afternoon.html?spref=tw …

12z GGEM...it seems like eastern / east central PA is bullseye

Philly Burbs Historical snow incoming as per 12z gfs

Any time frame for tomorrow? I'm a professor in Wayne and my classroom on Saturday morning has no windows =(

The GFS is a bit South the nam was well North the CMC is a bit north from last night's runs. 25 mile shifts or maybe even less than that are going to have significant impacts for a specific areas.

Ukie has the heaviest banding just to the south of NYC into New Jersey. Any slight shift north would be great for the NYC area.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=036

The ukie slams and I mean slams Coastal central New Jersey. Right over skins and ace house. Ukie spits out almost 2" le there.

algae888 wrote:The ukie slams and I mean slams Coastal central New Jersey. Right over skins and ace house. Ukie spits out almost 2" le there.

Do we have your maps