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Snow Showers Saturday?

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Post by Snow88 Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:14 pm

ARW likes central Jersey. NMM is further North into the NYC area.
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Post by algae888 Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:15 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The ukie slams and I mean slams Coastal central New Jersey. Right over skins and ace house. Ukie spits out almost 2" le there.
Do we have your maps
Skins click on snow88 map. You are in the red. I belive thats 40 to 50mm. And thats just in 6 hrs more before it. Not on my computer
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Post by Snow88 Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:38 pm

GEFS has 0.75 line touching southern areas of NYC lol

These troughs usually trend north
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Post by Bkdude Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:44 pm

Nuts i tell ya

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Post by sroc4 Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:47 pm

The vertical velocities are quite impressive. This system has some surprises for anyone under the highest vv in the form of hail or heavy snowfall rates or flooding.

Snow Showers Saturday? - Page 3 Image10

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:20 pm

Isotherm has stated this about the Euro:

The sad sack Euro now depicts a closed low at 500mb traversing the northern mid Atlantic tomorrow afternoon. The Euro to me is simply just another model. While it has the highest verification scores overall, its projections for individual storms have been worse than the GFS in recent months. Not sure what they've done to the physics of that model, but its life of royalty has transitioned into an existence of mediocrity.

Me personally have lost a great amount of faith in this model - amazing how it went from deadly within 5 days to run of the mill. I do not care what teh verification say it has been atrocious this winter!

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Post by amugs Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:21 pm

Ukie map - can't make this up - CNJ coast gets hammered with .......white rain? BL issues may be a problem but if yuo get enough dynamics and heavy white gold it will eventually stick.

Snow Showers Saturday? - Page 3 PA_000-072_0000

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Post by amugs Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:22 pm

Euro - CAVES TO THE GFS - AMERICA WINS AGAIN!!!!

Snow Showers Saturday? - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33



Last edited by amugs on Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Grselig Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:46 pm

@amugs wrote:Euro - CAVES TO THE GFS - AMERICAN WIN AGAIN!!!!

Snow Showers Saturday? - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

Snow Showers Saturday? - Page 3 4541888098
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Post by frank 638 Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:53 pm

At what time will it start

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Post by algae888 Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:06 pm

Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees below forecast this afternoon. Nyc forecast high temp is 52. Only 44 at 2 p.m. dew points in the low to mid twenties.
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Post by amugs Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:11 pm

SREFS have taken a good 20 mile tick N now - good trend
If we can get a few more of these at 18 and 21z I think most here woudl be happy and call uncle and move onto true spring
15Z
Snow Showers Saturday? - Page 3 Image.thumb.gif.70b26cf6d823c2eb1cdb2ed0271aea32

12Z run for comparison
Snow Showers Saturday? - Page 3 Image.thumb.gif.7ba51aef0f2da848d94dd20fa06b3fb9


Last edited by amugs on Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:11 pm

I am heading to LI tomorrow is that a bad idea or should roads be okay? I will be driving around not just staying in one place.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:13 pm

What time does this all start I will mostly be out earlier in the day.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I am heading to LI tomorrow is that a bad idea or should roads be okay? I will be driving around not just staying in one place.

Going to rain on LI. Or wet snow. You'll be fine

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Post by dkodgis Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:19 am

Here a few miles North of I-84, at 8 am so far so clear.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:35 am

45.1, 58%, 29.49 R. Partly cloudy with sun.
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Post by Dtone Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:39 am

Mostly sunny 41*

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:44 am

38° and overcast now. Not expecting much...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by Snow88 Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:10 am

SREF has NYC in the bullseye later on but surface temps are warm. Most likely white rain.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/SREFUS24Precip09027.gif

Upton mentioned how NYC should watch out for the banding to the south to see if it trends northward
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:18 am

PA getting slammed

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Post by frank 638 Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:12 am

cloudy and chilly looks like its going to snow soon i hope we get little snow today even a coatong i will be happy lol

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:15 am

It will be rain here for sure temp at 45°
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:30 am

Temp up to 43° here now....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:44 am

Snowing now... what a weird flip floppy year so far, 80s in March and Tstorms, and back to winter in April, whats going on here?
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