May Observations and Discussion
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essexcountypete
ak926
Snow88
snow247
rb924119
RJB8525
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
Dtone
dkodgis
billg315
algae888
Radz
missmorris
skinsfan1177
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
docstox12
Math23x7
frank 638
amugs
25 posters
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
pete fwiw cmc is a complete miss over the weekend...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Euro has a wraped up stronger storm than GFS for Tuesday. But it appears after saturday/Sunday storm moves out Tuesday another coastal forms ugh!
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Wow this was so post to happen in the winter time not now .then when we get to the fall we will get our warm dry days
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Thanks Al, here's hoping that S&E trend happens here, but it's not looking good. As you said, the east end might be the place that really gets nailed with this one.
Skins, starting to look better for your trip south, no?
Skins, starting to look better for your trip south, no?
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
essexcountypete wrote:Thanks Al, here's hoping that S&E trend happens here, but it's not looking good. As you said, the east end might be the place that really gets nailed with this one.
Skins, starting to look better for your trip south, no?
I'm not sure I hope so
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Any updates on the Saturday and Sunday storm because that looks to blow out of here which is good for my a tough trip but what about the second one on Tuesday any info would be great
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Hey guys, well 12z GFS is not promising if you want a clear weekend. 12z GFS brings in heavy rain midday Sat into Sun. Totals ugg...
Would love to see this in January!
Would love to see this in January!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Thanks for posting jman. I'm a sad dude. My crew is buzzing about the possibility of 2 inches of wind driven rain.
Does the GFS have support from other models? Upton's PM discussion says models are coming into agreement.
Does the GFS have support from other models? Upton's PM discussion says models are coming into agreement.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Pete looks like the euro is a miss for both systems. I would still lean on the drier models as that is what the trends have been for several months now.essexcountypete wrote:Thanks for posting jman. I'm a sad dude. My crew is buzzing about the possibility of 2 inches of wind driven rain.
Does the GFS have support from other models? Upton's PM discussion says models are coming into agreement.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.
I'm confused isn't their 2 storms
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
skinsfan1177 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.
I'm confused isn't their 2 storms
I believe jman means the weekend system.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Looks like next week could be the pits. What wonderful weather
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
essexcountypete wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.
I'm confused isn't their 2 storms
I believe jman means the weekend system.
That's what I thoight I'm concerned with 242nd one on Tuesday for I will be golfing down in ocean city Maryland I'm hoping the storms is more north
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
May has been even worse down there.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Month to date we are -4 to -8 below normal temp departure. The forecast for this weekend and early next week suggest these numbers will become even cooler. A horrific month if you're into warm weather.
Saturday coastal storm will bring about 1- 2 inches of rain. GFS has the brunt between 2pm-9pm. Of course I have a wedding that night.
Saturday coastal storm will bring about 1- 2 inches of rain. GFS has the brunt between 2pm-9pm. Of course I have a wedding that night.
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Wow Frank, that's a pretty significant departure from normal. And in May that kind of difference feels more significant, since it can the difference between a chilly day and gorgeous day that feels like spring. But temps next week look like they might be above normal.
Looks like things have trended a bit dryer for the weekend forecast. Totals seem to have dropped, as did the duration of the rain.
Looks like things have trended a bit dryer for the weekend forecast. Totals seem to have dropped, as did the duration of the rain.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Here's hoping the weekend storm is a miss. I need to do some yard work on Saturday.essexcountypete wrote:Wow Frank, that's a pretty significant departure from normal. And in May that kind of difference feels more significant, since it can the difference between a chilly day and gorgeous day that feels like spring. But temps next week look like they might be above normal.
Looks like things have trended a bit dryer for the weekend forecast. Totals seem to have dropped, as did the duration of the rain.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
nutleyblizzard wrote:Here's hoping the weekend storm is a miss. I need to do some yard work on Saturday.essexcountypete wrote:Wow Frank, that's a pretty significant departure from normal. And in May that kind of difference feels more significant, since it can the difference between a chilly day and gorgeous day that feels like spring. But temps next week look like they might be above normal.
Looks like things have trended a bit dryer for the weekend forecast. Totals seem to have dropped, as did the duration of the rain.
GGEM SAYS NO GET OUT THE ARK!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Then and man vs all other models ugh
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
12Z GFS and EURO ARE S & E - WHAT ELSE IS NEW.
Skins CMC and NAM vs the other models - either way it is cloudy Saturday
Skins CMC and NAM vs the other models - either way it is cloudy Saturday
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Yeah I get it cloudy either way but recent trends in past storms has been south and east. I think nam is overdoneamugs wrote:12Z GFS and EURO ARE S & E - WHAT ELSE IS NEW.
Skins CMC and NAM vs the other models - either way it is cloudy Saturday
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah I get it cloudy either way but recent trends in past storms has been south and east. I think nam is overdoneamugs wrote:12Z GFS and EURO ARE S & E - WHAT ELSE IS NEW.
Skins CMC and NAM vs the other models - either way it is cloudy Saturday
Only to correct N&W within 24 hours in this pattern we have seen since .........
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
I lowered rain totals for the area but warn this could be temporary. The 18z GFS/NAM trended well north from their 12z runs. If the surface low tracks into Central NJ and off the coast, that would bring hefty rain totals. However, if it remains south of NJ it will likely stay shunned from the coast. I think 1.00" of rain is a high possibility, which is nothing to be honest. Flooding concerns would arise if the north trends continues and we end up falling in the 3-4" rain totals. But I am not seeing that right now.
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Happy Friday everyone 58 deg and clear skies enjoy it because its going to be a crappy cloudy rainy weekend hopefully next weekend it will be better
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Thanks everyone for all the input on the weekend forecast. Stay dry people!
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
From what I'm understanding is it depends on when the transfer takes place if sooner then not as much rain coming north later transfer more rain north. Many seem to be thinking the transfer will be early. These are called Miller's b storms.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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