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May Observations and Discussion

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Post by frank 638 Tue May 17, 2016 9:48 pm

Wow this was so post to happen in the winter time not now .then when we get to the fall we will get our warm dry days

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Post by essexcountypete Wed May 18, 2016 7:19 am

Thanks Al, here's hoping that S&E trend happens here, but it's not looking good. As you said, the east end might be the place that really gets nailed with this one.

Skins, starting to look better for your trip south, no?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed May 18, 2016 7:30 am

@essexcountypete wrote:Thanks Al, here's hoping that S&E trend happens here, but it's not looking good. As you said, the east end might be the place that really gets nailed with this one.

Skins, starting to look better for your trip south, no?

I'm not sure I hope so
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed May 18, 2016 10:54 am

Any updates on the Saturday and Sunday storm because that looks to blow out of here which is good for my a tough trip but what about the second one on Tuesday any info would be great
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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 18, 2016 12:23 pm

Hey guys, well 12z GFS is not promising if you want a clear weekend.  12z GFS brings in heavy rain midday Sat into Sun.  Totals ugg...

May Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Sat_ra10

Would love to see this in January!
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Post by essexcountypete Wed May 18, 2016 2:27 pm

Thanks for posting jman. I'm a sad dude. My crew is buzzing about the possibility of 2 inches of wind driven rain.

Does the GFS have support from other models? Upton's PM discussion says models are coming into agreement.
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Post by algae888 Wed May 18, 2016 2:30 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:Thanks for posting jman. I'm a sad dude. My crew is buzzing about the possibility of 2 inches of wind driven rain.

Does the GFS have support from other models? Upton's PM discussion says models are coming into agreement.
Pete looks like the euro is a miss for both systems. I would still lean on the drier models as that is what the trends have been for several months now.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed May 18, 2016 3:18 pm

euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed May 18, 2016 3:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.

I'm confused isn't their 2 storms
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Post by essexcountypete Wed May 18, 2016 4:04 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.

I'm confused isn't their 2 storms

I believe jman means the weekend system.
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Post by RJB8525 Wed May 18, 2016 4:13 pm

Looks like next week could be the pits. What wonderful weather
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed May 18, 2016 4:26 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:euro is a close miss, cmc is also dry but not completely.

I'm confused isn't their 2 storms

I believe jman means the weekend system.

That's what I thoight I'm concerned with 242nd one on Tuesday for I will be golfing down in ocean city Maryland I'm hoping the storms is more north
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Post by Dtone Wed May 18, 2016 4:36 pm

May has been even worse down there.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed May 18, 2016 6:39 pm

Month to date we are -4 to -8 below normal temp departure. The forecast for this weekend and early next week suggest these numbers will become even cooler. A horrific month if you're into warm weather. 

May Observations and Discussion - Page 5 MonthTDeptNRCC


Saturday coastal storm will bring about 1- 2 inches of rain. GFS has the brunt between 2pm-9pm. Of course I have a wedding that night.

May Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12

May Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Gfs_apcpn_neus_14

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Post by essexcountypete Thu May 19, 2016 11:28 am

Wow Frank, that's a pretty significant departure from normal. And in May that kind of difference feels more significant, since it can the difference between a chilly day and gorgeous day that feels like spring. But temps next week look like they might be above normal.

Looks like things have trended a bit dryer for the weekend forecast. Totals seem to have dropped, as did the duration of the rain.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu May 19, 2016 11:54 am

@essexcountypete wrote:Wow Frank, that's a pretty significant departure from normal. And in May that kind of difference feels more significant, since it can the difference between a chilly day and gorgeous day that feels like spring. But temps next week look like they might be above normal.

Looks like things have trended a bit dryer for the weekend forecast. Totals seem to have dropped, as did the duration of the rain.
Here's hoping the weekend storm is a miss. I need to do some yard work on Saturday.
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Post by amugs Thu May 19, 2016 1:53 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:Wow Frank, that's a pretty significant departure from normal. And in May that kind of difference feels more significant, since it can the difference between a chilly day and gorgeous day that feels like spring. But temps next week look like they might be above normal.

Looks like things have trended a bit dryer for the weekend forecast. Totals seem to have dropped, as did the duration of the rain.
Here's hoping the weekend storm is a miss. I need to do some yard work on Saturday.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu May 19, 2016 2:23 pm

Then and man vs all other models ugh
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Post by amugs Thu May 19, 2016 2:34 pm

12Z GFS and EURO ARE S & E - WHAT ELSE IS NEW.

Skins CMC and NAM vs the other models - either way it is cloudy Saturday

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu May 19, 2016 2:53 pm

@amugs wrote:12Z GFS and EURO ARE S & E - WHAT ELSE IS NEW.

Skins CMC and NAM vs the other models - either way it is cloudy Saturday
Yeah I get it cloudy either way but recent trends in past storms has been south and east. I think nam is overdone
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Post by amugs Thu May 19, 2016 3:37 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@amugs wrote:12Z GFS and EURO ARE S & E - WHAT ELSE IS NEW.

Skins CMC and NAM vs the other models - either way it is cloudy Saturday
Yeah I get it cloudy either way but recent trends in past storms has been south and east. I think nam is overdone

Only to correct N&W within 24 hours in this pattern we have seen since .........

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 19, 2016 10:41 pm

I lowered rain totals for the area but warn this could be temporary. The 18z GFS/NAM trended well north from their 12z runs. If the surface low tracks into Central NJ and off the coast, that would bring hefty rain totals. However, if it remains south of NJ it will likely stay shunned from the coast. I think 1.00" of rain is a high possibility, which is nothing to be honest. Flooding concerns would arise if the north trends continues and we end up falling in the 3-4" rain totals. But I am not seeing that right now.

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Post by frank 638 Fri May 20, 2016 6:41 am

Happy Friday everyone 58 deg and clear skies enjoy it because its going to be a crappy cloudy rainy weekend hopefully next weekend it will be better

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Post by essexcountypete Fri May 20, 2016 7:52 am

Thanks everyone for all the input on the weekend forecast. Stay dry people!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri May 20, 2016 8:51 am

From what I'm understanding is it depends on when the transfer takes place if sooner then not as much rain coming north later transfer more rain north. Many seem to be thinking the transfer will be early. These are called Miller's b storms.
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