May Observations and Discussion
+21
essexcountypete
ak926
Snow88
snow247
rb924119
RJB8525
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
Dtone
dkodgis
billg315
algae888
Radz
missmorris
skinsfan1177
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
docstox12
Math23x7
frank 638
amugs
25 posters
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
There is video/pictures of even some light acclumation in PA and into the Midwest. Pretty wild for May..mid May at that.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
A mostly sunny week is on tap with temps ranging from mid 60s to low 70s. Expect rain showers Tuesday afternoon. The weekend is also shaping up to be dry though some models have a coastal storm off the coast. Bares watching
Re: May Observations and Discussion
45* here now TURN UP THE HEAT!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Its a chilly crisp 44 * on a Oct morning
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
36.7° was my low overnight. Record low was 43° at Teterboro, so brrrrrr!
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
39* here this morning...glad I brought in the plants..my little nesting birds must be freezing..poor things...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
38.7° low temp, quite brisk...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
42* low temp
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
43 here this morning
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
37 here this morning
ak926- Posts : 117
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Beautiful cold windy morning....in May was 38 at 8am....climbing to 48* currently winds 14mph
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Dunnzoo wrote:36.7° was my low overnight. Record low was 43° at Teterboro, so brrrrrr!
You beat me I recorded 37.8* - must be the HUHI (Hillsdale Urban Heat Island)!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
This is not a hot or summary pattern but a rather N to BN IMO as per the graphic below.
With the transition from an absolutely torch of a Nino to a La Nina the EPO is flexing its muscle here as Nino dies off.
Also there is no real heat on GFS going out - the 500mb pattern not showing this but cool nights and 70* type of days - normal for this time of year. May looks to end up BN if this comes to fruition. June I think at this time will be a near N month - patterns such as this do not seems to be breaking down anytime soon.
With the transition from an absolutely torch of a Nino to a La Nina the EPO is flexing its muscle here as Nino dies off.
Also there is no real heat on GFS going out - the 500mb pattern not showing this but cool nights and 70* type of days - normal for this time of year. May looks to end up BN if this comes to fruition. June I think at this time will be a near N month - patterns such as this do not seems to be breaking down anytime soon.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
12z GFS says Coastal
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Trough reorganizes in the east from the looks of this - I know where was this in Jan or Feb!!!!!!!!!!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Would suck if the coastal comes to fruition this weekend. Would be a complete washout. Ridge tries to trap the trough over the east. Cut off low forms.
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
This would b ts like weather? Gfs shows about 2 inches rain. Not sure what winds would b like. But I'm always putside sat till early afternoon any chance it holds off until then?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
GFS is ugly with this look for the east coast IF it come sto fruition - cut off low in the MA region - perceptual marine onshore flow with this.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Been watching the weekend forecast like a hawk since I'm going camping this weekend on the east end of LI and I'm essentially the outfitter for the group. It was looking good, but now we get a coastal popping on the models for this weekend. I try to avoid asking for personal forecasts, but if anyone wants to share their thoughts on the weekend forecast for the east end I'd appreciate it.
I'm preparing for the worst (and the GFS putting out 2" of wind driven rain is the worst), but hoping for a better forecast.
I'm preparing for the worst (and the GFS putting out 2" of wind driven rain is the worst), but hoping for a better forecast.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Same here I'm going on my annual golf trip with a big group of friends to ocean city Maryland on Monday and what looked like a great forecast days ago seems to be fading fastessexcountypete wrote:Been watching the weekend forecast like a hawk since I'm going camping this weekend on the east end of LI and I'm essentially the outfitter for the group. It was looking good, but now we get a coastal popping on the models for this weekend. I try to avoid asking for personal forecasts, but if anyone wants to share their thoughts on the weekend forecast for the east end I'd appreciate it.
I'm preparing for the worst (and the GFS putting out 2" of wind driven rain is the worst), but hoping for a better forecast.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
I hope the storm goes out to sea or never comes enough already its almost June already
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
it may end up being the second low that impacts us early next week rather than the weekend system.
sat/sun
Tuesday
gfs shifted south for weekend storm. still hits eastern areas.
top gfs sat/sun. bottom Tuesday. with these two systems it's now a lock that may finishes below normal. as of today knyc is -4* below normal with no above normal days on guidance for next seven days. first below normal month for knyc since march 2015 although june 2015 and april 2016 were very close to normal.
sat/sun
Tuesday
gfs shifted south for weekend storm. still hits eastern areas.
top gfs sat/sun. bottom Tuesday. with these two systems it's now a lock that may finishes below normal. as of today knyc is -4* below normal with no above normal days on guidance for next seven days. first below normal month for knyc since march 2015 although june 2015 and april 2016 were very close to normal.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
with the dying super-nino high lat blocking, near record -epo, ao and nao, came on with a fury this spring (esp april and may). so my question is for anyone who can answer is, did the super-nino interfere with and overwhelm these tele connectors forcing them to remain in a positive state most of winter? if yes can we assume when strong el-nino rears it's ugly head in future years we can expect the same?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
pete it seems like systems this spring have trended south and east as we get closer in time probably because of the near record high lat blocking. that blocking has relaxed some now but I would favor the s/e trend for the weekend system. east end of LI probably has the highest chance of seeing significant rain. models should have better handle by 12z Thursday.essexcountypete wrote:Been watching the weekend forecast like a hawk since I'm going camping this weekend on the east end of LI and I'm essentially the outfitter for the group. It was looking good, but now we get a coastal popping on the models for this weekend. I try to avoid asking for personal forecasts, but if anyone wants to share their thoughts on the weekend forecast for the east end I'd appreciate it.
I'm preparing for the worst (and the GFS putting out 2" of wind driven rain is the worst), but hoping for a better forecast.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
pete fwiw cmc is a complete miss over the weekend...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: May Observations and Discussion
Euro has a wraped up stronger storm than GFS for Tuesday. But it appears after saturday/Sunday storm moves out Tuesday another coastal forms ugh!
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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