NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2016 Summer Outlook

Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 05, 2016 10:26 pm

Hello!

Please follow the link to watch my 2016 Summer Outlook. Let me know if you have any questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wappszZ6MUM&feature=youtu.be

Best,

Frank

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Dtone Thu May 05, 2016 11:35 pm

Would it be safe to say it looks to be especially humid as well? As opposed to the NW wind down sloping heat that may bring the most extreme heat here but drier.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by frank 638 Fri May 06, 2016 5:30 am

Thanks frnk for the video I just hope it won't be to hot one thing I can't stand is having 100+ deg days also I remember in 1998 it was a hot dry summer

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2318
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 06, 2016 5:58 am

@Dtone wrote:Would it be safe to say it looks to be especially humid as well? As opposed to the NW wind down sloping heat that may bring the most extreme heat here but drier.

The 2nd half of the summer will be pretty humid, yes. Backdoor cold front should helps us stay at least average through June. 

@frank 638 wrote:Thanks frnk for the video I just hope it won't be to hot one thing I can't stand is having 100+ deg days also I remember in 1998 it was a hot dry summer

The precip forecast in the summer is tough. It depends how strong and west the Bermuda High gets. If it's west of Bermuda, then storm systems will dissipate before they reach the east.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by algae888 Fri May 06, 2016 9:04 am

thanks for the write up frank. I agree that summer looks like it will get off to a slow start as for heat and hurricanes as this el-nino isn't as quick to give in as models have forecast so far. all 4 regions are still at +.5 or higher with 3.4 just over +1 as of today. interesting to see how fast and how strong la-nina gets.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by dkodgis Sat May 07, 2016 3:18 am

OK let us see the 2016-17 Winter Forecast! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1511
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by algae888 Sat May 07, 2016 5:49 pm

Today is the 13th consecutive day of below normal temps and if tomorrow's gfs temps are correct that would make two full weeks. I believe the last time that happened was March of last year. Also did anyone check out next weekend eps and euro operational. -5 to-10 850's. If we get clear calm nights could be freeze concerns especially in the suburbs
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by docstox12 Sun May 08, 2016 6:51 am

Al, I remember when I had my vegetable garden in Mahwah NJ there was a frost danger until May 21.One year I cheated and planted tomato and eggplant a week early, and sure enough, there was a frost a few days later.Had to go out and cover all the plants with big cups.

Anyway, tip o' the hat to Frank for the summer outlook.Looks like a scorcher the second half.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by amugs Sun May 08, 2016 10:11 am

Frank,

Great video/forecast as always - short and sweet - always depends on where that BH will set up and how strong it gets.
Another anomalous pattern we are looking at with few analogs to compare to.
Best of luck and I see the dog days of summer may have to renamed if the temp forecast departure comes to fruition.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Isotherm Mon May 23, 2016 9:11 pm

Nice work Frank. Good to see our forecasts have quite a few commonalities.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hopefully we see an improved T-storm season vs. last summer.

Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 231
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 30
Location : Monmouth County, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:27 pm

I give myself a B- score for my Summer outlook. I royally screwed up the west coast. I should stick to the east.

2016 Summer Outlook 14310454_1217106691674421_6200327552443693567_o

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Isotherm Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:24 pm

Good work. I agree with your assessment. This summer went very well for me as well. Big heat for Jul/Aug in the East. Now onto to the more difficult (though summer isn't easy either) half of the LR outlook season.

Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 231
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 30
Location : Monmouth County, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:18 pm

@Isotherm wrote:Good work. I agree with your assessment. This summer went very well for me as well. Big heat for Jul/Aug in the East. Now onto to the more difficult (though summer isn't easy either) half of the LR outlook season.

You did extremely well. Excellent job.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Summer Outlook Empty Re: 2016 Summer Outlook

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum