NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Page 1 of 10 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Math23x7 Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:11 am

The stretch of nice weather we saw to conclude May will continue to start June. Changes are on the horizon though. As it states above, next week should feature a bit of a cool down.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:07 pm

WOW - where again as this in Dec or even Feb - woudl have been a beaut BUT....

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Post-564-0-42649000-1464790244

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Post-564-0-64745800-1464792228

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12151
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:09 pm

Monday blues here - could be some severe action with this set up

June 2016 Observations & Discussions F108


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12151
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:43 pm

Okay the GEFS build in a trough from the midwest this weekend through next weekend and relaxes but only to Normal and then the 15th it tries to build in another trough - interesting - I am assuming this is in response to the IO Dipole crash along with SOI in conjunction with teh transition from Nino to Nina and the off the charts PDO

Indian Ocean Dipole - Look at how this was in our winter - uggh!!
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Dmi_short



Nino
3.4 - La Nada or Nuetral heading down under
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nino34

4 ditto

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nino4

1.2 down again
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nino12


[img][url=https://servimg.com/view/18554455/57June 2016 Observations & Discussions Pdo10[/url][/img]

Look at the PDO - line along teh west coast and slopes back towards the Nina cold blue finger.

PNA spike in the west causes the trough the east
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_23

it doesn't want to leave
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59


EPO goes big time positive again and the NAO is very Neg here - lots of blockiness

June 2016 Observations & Discussions 4panel

So what does this spell ??
Cool and Wet in the NE

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12151
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:01 am

Some rain showers tomorrow morning into mid afternoon. Will clear out by evening.

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:02 am

Sunday into early Monday looks especially unsettled. Around 1 inch of rain possible. Can't rule out a spotty shower on Saturday either. A "meh" weekend on tap.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:56 pm

4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nam4km_apcpn_neus_15

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12151
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Math23x7 Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:11 pm

@amugs wrote:4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nam4km_apcpn_neus_15

C'mon mugs, you know that band of heavy rain will trend #southandeast! Razz

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:10 am

Sunday potential for severe weather.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by RJB8525 Fri Jun 03, 2016 9:49 am

at least memorial day weekend was nice? paying the price now lol. Crappy temps and crappy weather

64* overcast.
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:26 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Sunday potential for severe weather.

I'm not that impressed. I think there will be storms but not sold on severity

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:37 pm

71 deg and cloudy had some light rain before nothing crazy just a crappy day at least tom it will be nice

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2315
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:01 am

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Image_10

It has pushed northward some
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:25 pm

Even though I believe there will be a Tornado watch for teh areas S & W of the NYC Metro area the HRRR and Hi Res NAM are showing a strong line of severe storms that may impact our area with teh warm front. It is going to be interesting as the days goes on today but check out the latest loop of the HRRR - pretty impressive.

The PWATS for teh area are high but not as high as the SNJ, MD, DE and SPA areas.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016060412&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12151
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:34 pm

Wow what a big difference from yesterday's weather to today it's humid and muggy I hope we have good t storms tom

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2315
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:36 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Wow what a big difference from yesterday's weather to today it's humid and muggy I hope we have good t storms tom
Theirs a good chance we will
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:47 pm

does anyone know what time we will see showers and thunderstorms

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2315
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:32 pm

The SPC pushed the yellow and orange even more north.

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Spc_da10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:33 pm

@amugs wrote:Even though I believe there will be a Tornado watch for teh areas S & W of the NYC Metro area the HRRR and Hi Res NAM are showing a strong line of severe storms that may impact our area with teh warm front. It is going to be interesting as the days goes on today but check out the latest loop of the HRRR - pretty impressive.

The PWATS for teh area are high but not as high as the SNJ, MD, DE and SPA areas.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016060412&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3  

I wouldnt be surprised to see most of the area under a svr t-storm watch or tornado watch tomorrow later. Though looks by HRRR there may be some less strong storms earlier in the day so is the day pretty much a washout?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:09 pm

Rain expected most of the day tomorrow. Looks like SPC still believes in the severe weather threat. I felt there will be too many clouds around that would keep the airmass too stable. We'll see....

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:11 pm

Hey Frank I am not that savy on the technical discussions by spc as the words they use are not english lol, but it seems they think there will be enough instability without a lot of sun heating.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:14 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@amugs wrote:4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nam4km_apcpn_neus_15

C'mon mugs, you know that band of heavy rain will trend #southandeast! Razz

I like the little rainband circles from bonnie down by carolinas that looks cool. That tiny rain band is rather odd.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:56 pm

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Fb_img10
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:55 pm

We may get a break for a few hours late morning, early afternoon before the front comes through late tomorrow. Looks like it will come through NNJ about 9-10 pm.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:43 pm

Its pouring.
been raining on and off for a few hrs now its really coming down. I didnt expect so much rain so early.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Empty Re: June 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 10 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum