July 2016 Observations & Discussions
+24
ak926
jake732
Taffy
docstox12
essexcountypete
weatherwatchermom
sabamfa
1190ftalt
Radz
nutleyblizzard
Math23x7
Grselig
RJB8525
UnionWX
snow247
HectorO
frank 638
Frank_Wx
Dtone
jmanley32
amugs
skinsfan1177
algae888
Dunnzoo
28 posters
Page 1 of 14
Page 1 of 14 • 1, 2, 3 ... 7 ... 14
July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Looks like someone west of NYC is going to get some action Friday afternoon.
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
yes evn coastal areas look to get some strong t-storms this afternoon...Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like someone west of NYC is going to get some action Friday afternoon.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
nws disco...
Ahead of it, winds veer from the SSE-SE at the surface to SW-WSW
at 500 hPa, with a Bulk shear of 30-40kt. In addition to the speed
and directional shear, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE is forecast over
most of the region (only 500-1000 J/kg over Eastern Long Island
and coastal SE CT). Furthermore the region will be under the
surface theta-e ridge and have a 25-30kt 950 hPa jet pass just to
the south. Given the shear, CAPE, abundant low level moisture and
forcing from the low level jet and an approaching warm front (and
cold front by late afternoon), the ingredients exist for strong to
severe storms across the Tri-State from mainly this afternoon into
this evening. Bulk Richardson numbers in the 15-40 range, along
with hodographs suggest potential for some isolated supercells
and possibly some bowing segments as you get towards late
afternoon/early evening.
Consistent with this, SPC has placed NYC, NE NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley and most of Fairfield County in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms, and the remainder of the CWA in a marginal risk.
The main threat is from damaging winds, with a secondary threat
from large hail. In addition, given the anticipated low level
helicity, as evidenced by Vorticity Generation Parameter from
around 0.25-0.5 and Energy Helicity Index of 1 to 2.5 across
mainly the W 2/3 of the CWA (highest over NE NJ/Lower Hudson
Valley), LCLs forecast down to around 800-900m there is a small
chance for tornadoes, highest west of the Hudson River.
In addition to the severe threat, with the abundant low level
moisture, there are some potential hydrologic concerns
Ahead of it, winds veer from the SSE-SE at the surface to SW-WSW
at 500 hPa, with a Bulk shear of 30-40kt. In addition to the speed
and directional shear, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE is forecast over
most of the region (only 500-1000 J/kg over Eastern Long Island
and coastal SE CT). Furthermore the region will be under the
surface theta-e ridge and have a 25-30kt 950 hPa jet pass just to
the south. Given the shear, CAPE, abundant low level moisture and
forcing from the low level jet and an approaching warm front (and
cold front by late afternoon), the ingredients exist for strong to
severe storms across the Tri-State from mainly this afternoon into
this evening. Bulk Richardson numbers in the 15-40 range, along
with hodographs suggest potential for some isolated supercells
and possibly some bowing segments as you get towards late
afternoon/early evening.
Consistent with this, SPC has placed NYC, NE NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley and most of Fairfield County in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms, and the remainder of the CWA in a marginal risk.
The main threat is from damaging winds, with a secondary threat
from large hail. In addition, given the anticipated low level
helicity, as evidenced by Vorticity Generation Parameter from
around 0.25-0.5 and Energy Helicity Index of 1 to 2.5 across
mainly the W 2/3 of the CWA (highest over NE NJ/Lower Hudson
Valley), LCLs forecast down to around 800-900m there is a small
chance for tornadoes, highest west of the Hudson River.
In addition to the severe threat, with the abundant low level
moisture, there are some potential hydrologic concerns
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Raining really hard here lol up storm in Ocean county
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
HRRR and NAM have most severe storms north of NYC with a few strong cells over the NY Metro area, who do you like????
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Drought Monitor for our area
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Spc now has our area under enhanced svr levEl main thread wind at 30% which is pretty high. I'd look for some pretty nasty weather later in the day evening. Even 5% tornado!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Tornado watch issued for most of the area.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
There is a separate thread for the severe storms coming in.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
I'm baaaaack! Had an amazing cruise to Florida and Bahamas. Felt great to be disconnected from social media and the world in general while in the middle of the Atlantic.
Anyway, looks like I'm returning to fantastic weather. Sunshine this holiday weekend with temps in the 80s. Next week looks really good too. Pretty dey!
Anyway, looks like I'm returning to fantastic weather. Sunshine this holiday weekend with temps in the 80s. Next week looks really good too. Pretty dey!
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Welcome back frank I am glad you had a great time I never did cruise always wanted to go I have been to the Bahamas we stayed at pardoseo islat at the riu hotel I loved it I will be going way next month to punta cana in. Any way its a perfect sat partly cloudy and 68 degs
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Welcome back Frank looks like Monday night and Tuesday we can see some more rain as most of the models have trended North today
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Looks like firework shows are in Jeopardy Monday night. Tuesday system trending faster and further north could be some good thunderstorms to. CMC and GFS have storm after storm the next 10 days. Heatwave may be put on hold as has been the case this summer so far. Models especially the euro have consistently showed Heat past 5 days out only to lose it as we get closer
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
DL u think the rain will hold late on Mon as long it is dry on Mon during the day I will be happy I am having 15 people for a BBQ
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Most of the models have it starting after 8 p.m. however it has been trending quicker probably won't know for sure until tomorrow model runsfrank 638 wrote:DL u think the rain will hold late on Mon as long it is dry on Mon during the day I will be happy I am having 15 people for a BBQ
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
algae888 wrote:Looks like firework shows are in Jeopardy Monday night. Tuesday system trending faster and further north could be some good thunderstorms to. CMC and GFS have storm after storm the next 10 days. Heatwave may be put on hold as has been the case this summer so far. Models especially the euro have consistently showed Heat past 5 days out only to lose it as we get closer
I have given up on the Euro, it has been terrible. The HRRR and 4K Nam have been good in the short range. Hope it does wait til 11ish Monday night, guess we'll see....
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
74 degs and mostly cloudy it looks like we might have our first heat wave starting wed threw Fri with temps in the low 90
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
I'm expecting tomorrow night to be dry but cloudy. I think rain holds off until after midnight Tuesday
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
frank 638 wrote:74 degs and mostly cloudy it looks like we might have our first heat wave starting wed threw Fri with temps in the low 90
I'M BACK! Been awhile probably a few months. The heat wave next week is just in time for my family from FL. They must be bringing it up with them. Too bad they couldn't get relief by coming sooner. But they'll be here for two weeks.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 959
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
happy Fourth of July everyone
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Happy 4th of July to everyone on the board!!! I'll be at a family BBQ today. Back to work tomorrow...nooo
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
flood watches are up for central and south jersey for early tues from 1 am to 8 am tues they can see anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Rain looks ahead of schedule. It's scattered steady rain so it should not disrupt festivities too much, hopefully.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!!
Looks like heat waves will be the norm as we move forward. 2-4 90*days with a brief relaxation and then a rebuildin. The WAR or Bermuda High or Hadley Cell will start to flex it's muscle as we moved forward and the 500mb maps are showing sustained heat and humidity as we moved from mid July on through August. Get the A/C ready peeps.
Looks like heat waves will be the norm as we move forward. 2-4 90*days with a brief relaxation and then a rebuildin. The WAR or Bermuda High or Hadley Cell will start to flex it's muscle as we moved forward and the 500mb maps are showing sustained heat and humidity as we moved from mid July on through August. Get the A/C ready peeps.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Spent 4 of july in DC it was rainy, heavy at times with temps stuck in the upper 60s to around 70.
Back in NY its feels like a super humid furnest. Can't believe I had to briefly pull out the hoodie yday.
It started getting hot just as I was leaving, leading edge of whats coming here.
Sitting at 89* dew pt 69* here.
Back in NY its feels like a super humid furnest. Can't believe I had to briefly pull out the hoodie yday.
It started getting hot just as I was leaving, leading edge of whats coming here.
Sitting at 89* dew pt 69* here.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY
Page 1 of 14 • 1, 2, 3 ... 7 ... 14
Page 1 of 14
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|