July 2016 Observations & Discussions
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!!
Looks like heat waves will be the norm as we move forward. 2-4 90*days with a brief relaxation and then a rebuildin. The WAR or Bermuda High or Hadley Cell will start to flex it's muscle as we moved forward and the 500mb maps are showing sustained heat and humidity as we moved from mid July on through August. Get the A/C ready peeps.
Looks like heat waves will be the norm as we move forward. 2-4 90*days with a brief relaxation and then a rebuildin. The WAR or Bermuda High or Hadley Cell will start to flex it's muscle as we moved forward and the 500mb maps are showing sustained heat and humidity as we moved from mid July on through August. Get the A/C ready peeps.
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Spent 4 of july in DC it was rainy, heavy at times with temps stuck in the upper 60s to around 70.
Back in NY its feels like a super humid furnest. Can't believe I had to briefly pull out the hoodie yday.
It started getting hot just as I was leaving, leading edge of whats coming here.
Sitting at 89* dew pt 69* here.
Back in NY its feels like a super humid furnest. Can't believe I had to briefly pull out the hoodie yday.
It started getting hot just as I was leaving, leading edge of whats coming here.
Sitting at 89* dew pt 69* here.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
great news! it now looks like our heat wave will only last 2 days as a backdoor cold front moves through Friday morning to keep temps in the low to id 80's Friday and Saturday.
nws disco
A backdoor cold front approaches the region Thursday night and
Friday. The main question is the timing of the front and when does
it reach portions of our region. Thinking at this point that the
front reaches the region sometime during the Friday morning hours.
This would result in a slightly cooler temperatures than previous
forecast. Of course, timing is everything and will have impacts on
how warm we get. Confidence is rising that we wont reach heat
advisory criteria in NYC with highs in the 80s across much of the
region. The one exception will be Eastern Long Island, and possibly
Eastern CT where highs may only reach the upper 70s.
nws disco
A backdoor cold front approaches the region Thursday night and
Friday. The main question is the timing of the front and when does
it reach portions of our region. Thinking at this point that the
front reaches the region sometime during the Friday morning hours.
This would result in a slightly cooler temperatures than previous
forecast. Of course, timing is everything and will have impacts on
how warm we get. Confidence is rising that we wont reach heat
advisory criteria in NYC with highs in the 80s across much of the
region. The one exception will be Eastern Long Island, and possibly
Eastern CT where highs may only reach the upper 70s.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Up in Lake George on family vacation.
Was 89* here yesterday and today even in th emountains feels disgusting out this morning. Going to be poolside enjoying the drink of the day.
Looks like some tstorms and some severe possible for the cwa around NY Metro from the looks of things so far. We'll see what happens as we get closer.
Is
Was 89* here yesterday and today even in th emountains feels disgusting out this morning. Going to be poolside enjoying the drink of the day.
Looks like some tstorms and some severe possible for the cwa around NY Metro from the looks of things so far. We'll see what happens as we get closer.
Is
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
amugs wrote:Up in Lake George on family vacation.
Was 89* here yesterday and today even in th emountains feels disgusting out this morning. Going to be poolside enjoying the drink of the day.
Looks like some tstorms and some severe possible for the cwa around NY Metro from the looks of things so far. We'll see what happens as we get closer.
Is
SPC not interested in our area for Friday night but then again they change their maps daily. Midwest is under moderate risk 45% wind damage probability, that's high, but def not unheard of over there. I was wondering if Sat morning through at least midday looks dry or not? I have out door plans starting in the very early morning hours.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
had a high of 93 deg with a heat index of 97 degs it was not to bad out currently 90 degs 2 more months till fall i cant wait
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
high 96 today
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Hot one
LGA 96
EWR 95
TEB 93
NYC 91
JFK 88
ISP 88
LGA 96
EWR 95
TEB 93
NYC 91
JFK 88
ISP 88
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
look for some t-storms tomorrow midday through early evening...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Good morning ..
already 83*
dewpt 72.
already 83*
dewpt 72.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Flash Flood watch posted for my area. Tstorms rolling in later. Nam has storms affecting the entire area, HRRR keeps them in southern NYS and heading SE to LI. Stay cool folks!
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
thunderstorms with heavy rain the next few days and uncomfortable. then a nice cool down with below normal temps sunday thru Tuesday. looks like the gfs wants to keep the trough in the east this month with a few hot days between approaching troughs. mid to late month looks seasonable att. epo/pdo and northern stream dominate players so far.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Good instability in the atmosphere today and tomorrow as the front moves through. Going to trigger some good summer t-storms.
@Al - I have been reading up on LA Nina and looking at charts etc. Looks to be delayed and we may bust may reach the nino record of 15 straight months of .5 or greater overall for region 3.4. Looks like Nina may not take affect unail fall now as per criteria levels.
@Al - I have been reading up on LA Nina and looking at charts etc. Looks to be delayed and we may bust may reach the nino record of 15 straight months of .5 or greater overall for region 3.4. Looks like Nina may not take affect unail fall now as per criteria levels.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Heavy down pour here much needed wow it came in quick
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Had a quick downpour here .25" in 15 minutes... still so muggy like a rainforest!
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Line of storms dissipated just west of me and fully reformed just east of me. Every time.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Severe t storm warning Fairfield county, CT & Northern Westchester.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Zoo stop using my name in vain!! Hahahsha.
Okay it is like a sauna up here in Lake George woloth heat index up at 98** Jesus the humidity is ridiulous!!
Just had a shower cell pass on by and lots on CN clouds to my south.
Glenn Falls just to my south had a nice tstorm cell hit them.
Saturday looks like poop with coil wet conditions not washout but shower and possible storms.
IF the GFS and EURO are correct then July 15th till 18th ish look to be down right U-G-L-Y with temps around 95-100 - Yikes!! Bermuda High or Hadley Cell looks to be getting busy and strengthening as we move through mid to late July.
Okay it is like a sauna up here in Lake George woloth heat index up at 98** Jesus the humidity is ridiulous!!
Just had a shower cell pass on by and lots on CN clouds to my south.
Glenn Falls just to my south had a nice tstorm cell hit them.
Saturday looks like poop with coil wet conditions not washout but shower and possible storms.
IF the GFS and EURO are correct then July 15th till 18th ish look to be down right U-G-L-Y with temps around 95-100 - Yikes!! Bermuda High or Hadley Cell looks to be getting busy and strengthening as we move through mid to late July.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Mugs while it looks warm for the end of next week the Euro has been over playing the Heat all summer showing Torrid conditions post 5 day and rarely verifying. EPO / pdo major player along with the Northern Jet Stream So any heat wave should be short-lived with a trough soon to follow. Beautiful weather coming up Sunday through Wednesday low humidity near to slightly below normal Temps
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
very humid and muggy had a high of 89 degs we had a quick downpour i dont think we will see anymore storms for the evening
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
one thing seems certain this will not end up being the hottest summer ever in our area. Going off guidance for the next 7 days we should average near to slightly above normal which would make the first half of meteorological summer June 1st to July 15th about normal. So if we are to end up as the hottest summer ever close the blinds put on the AC and don't venture outside until September. LOL
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Another downpour here .32" on that one, .57" total from 2 cells. Looks like more popping to the west.
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Winds of shifted to the north-northeast the city. Temperature 83 at 10 a.m. dew point 69. Felt comfortable at my house this morning with the low of 71 and a nice breeze. So much for this bogus Heatwave where NWS had heat index between 95 and 100 for Wednesday Thursday and today. Of the four reporting airports in the immediate New York City area only LaGuardia reached 100 for the heat index for one hour this week. Cpk and jfk didn't even reach 95 for all three days. Newark hit 95 for a couple hours during this time.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
90, partly cloudy. It's been hot the past week for sure.
UnionWX- Posts : 31
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
I wouldn't call it hot. uncomfortable for sure with the High Dews. don't forget normal high is 85 - 88 across our area so 90-93 is only a few degrees above normal. Think of it like this when the average temperature in January in the mid-thirties and we have a high of 30 degrees it's not really cold.UnionWX wrote:90, partly cloudy. It's been hot the past week for sure.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
1pm temps newark 87, jfk 85, cpk 84, lga 82. Don't think we will hit 90 today in the city maybe parts of Western Jersey the Hudson Valley will reach it.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions
Yesterday AccuWeather was showing highs of 93 and 91 for Friday and Saturday respectively for my area. I just checked it's now shows 83 and 74 for the same days. That's an incredible blunder less than two days out. I'm assuming the reason is that backdoor Cold front which wasn't well models and wondering if it has to do with such a negative NAO at the present time?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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