July 2016 Observations & Discussions

wow Friday is becoming more concerning with each model run. nws disco...

Synoptic lift...interacting with deep gulf moisture of 2 to 3 stds
above normal...instability feed from the south...and focus for
convergence along the warm front/coastal front ahead of the
approaching low will provide the ingredients for heavy rainfall
during the late tonight through into Friday afternoon period.

To the north of the track of the 850 hpa low...models indicating a
moderate to heavy frontogenetic rain band with a little if any
convection. Operational and ensemble depicting potential for 1 to 3
inches within this swath over a 6 hr period.

Along and just on the cool side of the warm front back to the triple
pt...potential exists for not only elevated convection...but surface
based. This would pose both a flash flood threat and lesser severe
threat. Threat for flash flooding from training convection as
steering flow closely parallels warm front. The GFS/NAM initialized
SBU WRF is depicting swaths of 7 to 10 inches along this boundary
due to training convection...but location is quite varied. This is a
concerning signal, and cant be ignored based on the available
instability and moisture. The limited severe threat appears to be
for weak tornadoes based on strong veering wind profile...low
lcls...low-level cape...and sufficient low-level shear/helicity in
se inflow.

Much needed rain - my lawn is parched after this heat wave and the newly imposed water restrictions for my area.

@algae888 wrote:wow Friday is becoming more concerning with each model run. nws disco...

Synoptic lift...interacting with deep gulf moisture of 2 to 3 stds
above normal...instability feed from the south...and focus for
convergence along the warm front/coastal front ahead of the
approaching low will provide the ingredients for heavy rainfall
during the late tonight through into Friday afternoon period.

To the north of the track of the 850 hpa low...models indicating a
moderate to heavy frontogenetic rain band with a little if any
convection. Operational and ensemble depicting potential for 1 to 3
inches within this swath over a 6 hr period.

Along and just on the cool side of the warm front back to the triple
pt...potential exists for not only elevated convection...but surface
based. This would pose both a flash flood threat and lesser severe
threat. Threat for flash flooding from training convection as
steering flow closely parallels warm front. The GFS/NAM initialized
SBU WRF is depicting swaths of 7 to 10 inches along this boundary
due to training convection...but location is quite varied. This is a
concerning signal, and cant be ignored based on the available
instability and moisture. The limited severe threat appears to be
for weak tornadoes based on strong veering wind profile...low
lcls...low-level cape...and sufficient low-level shear/helicity in
se inflow.

Did I read that correctly, an area 7-10 inches of rain!!!?? So is it safe to say my companies majoe client picnic is in jeopardy tomorrow. There is really nowhere to take cover and it usually is about 500 or so people maybe more. It cannot be canceled or moved as we host it along with NYC parks department. I will have to be out there no matter what so sounds like it ain't go be a fun day at work ie. client picnic. Any chance this doesn't have a big impact on the Bronx? I see we are still only in HWO, and the flash flood watches are to the south.

@amugs wrote:Much needed rain - my lawn is parched after this heat wave and the newly imposed water restrictions for my area.

Well that answers my question right there (they may just have to cancel if its gonna rain that hard), and that discussion suggesting the possibility of a lot more in training is concerning. FYI, you won't be seeing my usual image posts as I unsubscribed from Wxbell for now, financial reasons, gotta save every dollar I can right now. Maybe hurricane season I will rejoin.

Wow, I know its the NAM but I renewed some trust in it short term over the winter, NYC looks to get slammed 2-5 inches of rain wow (if this is right by midday tomorrow).

Jman it looks like most of the rain should be over by noon

@algae888 wrote:Jman it looks like most of the rain should be over by noon

Still not great as we start setup at 9, and people come in at 10. Commute then probably going to really be a tad dampish.

in the park 93* dp 60* heat index 93*. If I'm not mistaken of this eight-day Heatwave only 2 days had a heat index above 95 for most of the area. it could have been 3 days but all in all not too bad especially with low temperatures for several of the days in the fifties and sixties for many of the areas outside of the city. I think heat waves now should be considered 95 + for 3 consecutive days or three consecutive days with 95-plus heat index

@algae888 wrote: in the park 93* dp 60* heat index 93*. If I'm not mistaken of this eight-day Heatwave only 2 days had a heat index above 95 for most of the area. it could have been 3 days but all in all not too bad especially with low temperatures for several of the days in the fifties and sixties for many of the areas outside of the city. I think heat waves now should be considered 95 + for 3 consecutive days or three consecutive days with 95-plus  heat index

techincally the heat wave is over in central park. They had a 89 degree high the day after the t storms. The other reporting stations are on day 8 however.

I see your point about 90 being not that significant anymore. I guess it depends on how you view a "heat wave." If its suppose to be a relatively rare event or not.

Already in the 80s. Look for scattered rain this afternoon and evening. It will be steadier tomorrow. Enjoy your weekend!

Thunderstorms approaching 

Whoever is under that stationary cell in central NJ might want to build an arc 

Def more rain go come with this than yesterday. Whole system.is barely moving.

Holy crap that area obviously under flash flood warning but wow 5 inches in a few hrs already reported by nws if that doesn't move they could hit double digits. That's some unheard of rainfall jeeze.

Looks like that rain is just go train through jersey city and ne barely actually moving east. Clouds getting very dark here. The clouds and it looks like a big batch of very heavy rain headed for metro area.

67.8, 94%, 29.81 R...1.18 in the bucket

Holy Deluge, Batman!!! 3.61 in the bucket up here so far!
68.7, 29.78 R, 94%

Getting lots of rain storms moving very slow. Flooding on streets. This month in closing on 10 inches wowzaa

72* humidity 93% dew point 73.

Absolutely disgusting outside lol

For sure, got 5.86" so far this month....we'll see what I get the next 11 hours

Really no rain here at all today been basically dry. Don't see anything on radar coming into this area either. Can't believe the totals some places been getting.

Tomorrow will be an extension of today. Overcast with occasional showers and storms. It will become more isolated by Tuesday. Them we dry out for the rest of the week. Temps in the upper 80s.

4.86 in the bucket and still raining.69.4, 94%, 29.77 R