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July 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:52 am

wow Friday is becoming more concerning with each model run. nws disco...

Synoptic lift...interacting with deep gulf moisture of 2 to 3 stds
above normal...
instability feed from the south...and focus for
convergence along the warm front/coastal front ahead of the
approaching low will provide the ingredients for heavy rainfall
during the late tonight through into Friday afternoon period.

To the north of the track of the 850 hpa low...models indicating a
moderate to heavy frontogenetic rain band with a little if any
convection. Operational and ensemble depicting potential for 1 to 3
inches within this swath over a 6 hr period.

Along and just on the cool side of the warm front back to the triple
pt...potential exists for not only elevated convection...but surface
based. This would pose both a flash flood threat and lesser severe
threat. Threat for flash flooding from training convection as
steering flow closely parallels warm front. The GFS/NAM initialized
SBU WRF is depicting swaths of 7 to 10 inches along this boundary
due to training convection...but location is quite varied. This is a
concerning signal, and cant be ignored based on the available
instability and moisture. The limited severe threat appears to be
for weak tornadoes based on strong veering wind profile...low
lcls...low-level cape...and sufficient low-level shear/helicity in
se inflow.
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:47 am

Much needed rain - my lawn is parched after this heat wave and the newly imposed water restrictions for my area.

July 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_apcpn_neus_6

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:49 am

@algae888 wrote:wow Friday is becoming more concerning with each model run. nws disco...

Synoptic lift...interacting with deep gulf moisture of 2 to 3 stds
above normal...
instability feed from the south...and focus for
convergence along the warm front/coastal front ahead of the
approaching low will provide the ingredients for heavy rainfall
during the late tonight through into Friday afternoon period.

To the north of the track of the 850 hpa low...models indicating a
moderate to heavy frontogenetic rain band with a little if any
convection. Operational and ensemble depicting potential for 1 to 3
inches within this swath over a 6 hr period.

Along and just on the cool side of the warm front back to the triple
pt...potential exists for not only elevated convection...but surface
based. This would pose both a flash flood threat and lesser severe
threat. Threat for flash flooding from training convection as
steering flow closely parallels warm front. The GFS/NAM initialized
SBU WRF is depicting swaths of 7 to 10 inches along this boundary
due to training convection...but location is quite varied. This is a
concerning signal, and cant be ignored based on the available
instability and moisture. The limited severe threat appears to be
for weak tornadoes based on strong veering wind profile...low
lcls...low-level cape...and sufficient low-level shear/helicity in
se inflow.

Did I read that correctly, an area 7-10 inches of rain!!!?? So is it safe to say my companies majoe client picnic is in jeopardy tomorrow. There is really nowhere to take cover and it usually is about 500 or so people maybe more. It cannot be canceled or moved as we host it along with NYC parks department. I will have to be out there no matter what so sounds like it ain't go be a fun day at work ie. client picnic. Any chance this doesn't have a big impact on the Bronx? I see we are still only in HWO, and the flash flood watches are to the south.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:52 am

@amugs wrote:Much needed rain - my lawn is parched after this heat wave and the newly imposed water restrictions for my area.

July 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_apcpn_neus_6

Well that answers my question right there (they may just have to cancel if its gonna rain that hard), and that discussion suggesting the possibility of a lot more in training is concerning. FYI, you won't be seeing my usual image posts as I unsubscribed from Wxbell for now, financial reasons, gotta save every dollar I can right now. Maybe hurricane season I will rejoin.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:03 pm

Wow, I know its the NAM but I renewed some trust in it short term over the winter, NYC looks to get slammed 2-5 inches of rain wow (if this is right by midday tomorrow).

July 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 13 Nam_4k10
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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:13 pm

Jman it looks like most of the rain should be over by noon
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:17 pm

@algae888 wrote:Jman it looks like most of the rain should be over by noon

Still not great as we start setup at 9, and people come in at 10. Commute then probably going to really be a tad dampish.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:32 pm

in the park 93* dp 60* heat index 93*. If I'm not mistaken of this eight-day Heatwave only 2 days had a heat index above 95 for most of the area. it could have been 3 days but all in all not too bad especially with low temperatures for several of the days in the fifties and sixties for many of the areas outside of the city. I think heat waves now should be considered 95 + for 3 consecutive days or three consecutive days with 95-plus heat index
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Post by Dtone Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:41 pm

@algae888 wrote: in the park 93* dp 60* heat index 93*. If I'm not mistaken of this eight-day Heatwave only 2 days had a heat index above 95 for most of the area. it could have been 3 days but all in all not too bad especially with low temperatures for several of the days in the fifties and sixties for many of the areas outside of the city. I think heat waves now should be considered 95 + for 3 consecutive days or three consecutive days with 95-plus  heat index

techincally the heat wave is over in central park. They had a 89 degree high the day after the t storms. The other reporting stations are on day 8 however.

I see your point about 90 being not that significant anymore. I guess it depends on how you view a "heat wave." If its suppose to be a relatively rare event or not.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:57 am

Already in the 80s. Look for scattered rain this afternoon and evening. It will be steadier tomorrow. Enjoy your weekend!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:02 pm

Thunderstorms approaching 

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:22 pm

Whoever is under that stationary cell in central NJ might want to build an arc 

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Post by frank 638 Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:24 pm

77*mod rain very muggy outside yuck

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:47 pm

Def more rain go come with this than yesterday. Whole system.is barely moving.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:04 pm

Holy crap that area obviously under flash flood warning but wow 5 inches in a few hrs already reported by nws if that doesn't move they could hit double digits. That's some unheard of rainfall jeeze.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:58 pm

Looks like that rain is just go train through jersey city and ne barely actually moving east. Clouds getting very dark here. The clouds and it looks like a big batch of very heavy rain headed for metro area.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jul 30, 2016 11:42 pm

67.8, 94%, 29.81 R...1.18 in the bucket
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:12 am

Holy Deluge, Batman!!! 3.61 in the bucket up here so far!
68.7, 29.78 R, 94%
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:32 am

Getting lots of rain storms moving very slow. Flooding on streets. This month in closing on 10 inches wowzaa
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:45 am

72* humidity 93% dew point 73.

Absolutely disgusting outside lol
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:42 pm

77 * with a steady light rain what a crappy day Mad Sad at least we are getting our much needed rainfall

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:12 pm

For sure, got 5.86" so far this month....we'll see what I get the next 11 hours

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:57 pm

Really no rain here at all today been basically dry. Don't see anything on radar coming into this area either. Can't believe the totals some places been getting.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:10 pm

Tomorrow will be an extension of today. Overcast with occasional showers and storms. It will become more isolated by Tuesday. Them we dry out for the rest of the week. Temps in the upper 80s.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:12 pm

4.86 in the bucket and still raining.69.4, 94%, 29.77 R
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