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Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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Post by amugs Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:32 am

Oh poop look at the forecasted blocking - this is going to get STUCK somewhere up here peeps

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Eps_z500a_exnamer_25.thumb.png.51b916e05af094eaaaa11d63f686cb05

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:35 am

GFS shows a capture again, still a long ways to go and no consensus.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:47 am

FWIW NAM initialized at 998mb

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_1

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:43 am

@amugs wrote:Oh poop look at the forecasted blocking - this is going to get STUCK somewhere up here peeps

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Eps_z500a_exnamer_25.thumb.png.51b916e05af094eaaaa11d63f686cb05
I think we go get hit but still remains to b seen. Sgetti Def showing more turns to left and wow that block. I for one would like some excitement for once. Btw cant wait for snow! Blizzards and hurricanes my things. Good tstorm too but too quick.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:52 am

Mobile right now but nhc moved end of cone way west and we are now in the 10 to 20 percent area for ts winds. Yesterday barely the 5 percent. Getting interesting. Can't believe not a ts yet.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:17 am

10am NHC changes in cone.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 10am_c10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:18 am

thats splicing TD8 & 9 together, dunno why they did that kinda confusing.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:20 am

WOW to NAM simulated radar!!  Dead on landfall to the area if this panned out, but we know NAM 84 hrs out. NAM is significantly further west than last run which was off NC coast.


Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Nam_re10
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Post by algae888 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:36 am

So far today is 12z meso models are West. actually have an inland track which would do two things weaken the system but bring much-needed rain
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:41 am

Yeah Al, will depend how much time it spends over land but looking at rain totals it would be a bit too much rain, and I think we would at least contend with some TS winds, I do not see it being THAT far west but who knows with the late mesoscale models. NAM did okay with winter but I dunno how it handles tropical systems in comparison. GFS, NAM agreen on more west, HWRF is well OTS (more reliable at this time frame?) CMC is close and euro is just off shore, still no consensus as NJ said earlier. In short term its amazing how little they know exactly what intensity and landfall it will be, right now its stationary which is not good, will intensify quick.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:44 am

12z GFS is headed further west in FL and comes in stronger than 06z at hr 42.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:49 am

Well west over land in line with NAM so far stronger though over land, must be tapping into that jet streak?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:50 am

Yesterday far East today far west pick in the middle
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Post by Snow88 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:55 am

GFS is like the Nam
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:55 am

Thinking this will b stronger as GFS has been weakest thus far, it makes landfall in FL at 1001mb (its that now) initialized around 1009mb and stays that way up to this pt. Go be close on this run.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Gfs_ms16
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:56 am

This is showing a streak of 5-10 inches of rain, we may need rain but that would cause major flooding.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:57 am

may strengthen if it gets offshore north of VA.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:01 pm

If this were sitting over water it would explode...look at that jet streak.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Gfs_uv250_us_11

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:02 pm

@sroc4 wrote:If this were sitting over water it would explode...look at that jet streak.  

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Gfs_uv250_us_11

well if we go in the middle of this far west and the earlier ots, we could b in trouble, still thinking we dont see anything much sroc? Also are you still thinking 3rd-5th, looks more like 6th now. Levi talked about that jet streak being what may intensify it as it passes past FL into SE US or just offshore.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:04 pm

Heads west right up through the channel up maryland west inland 999mb, rain splits to west and east of area. sorry the name of that escapes me of that channel, lol interesting run.

edit: it only turns west brifely then back to the NE toward NYC weak 1006mb but a lot of rain.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Snow88 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:04 pm

Crashes into the mid atlantic coast. Not as strong as it gets up here for NYC but way west of 6z
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:08 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Crashes into the mid atlantic coast. Not as strong as it gets up here for NYC but way west of 6z

We will see what NHC thinks, if they move cone way west the buy it, I am thinking in middle, like was said, which might put this just offshore which would be bad as sroc said streak would intensify it big time. And I see its taking on a non tropical status per NHC as it heads up this way.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:08 pm

Would this bring with it increased tropical humidity?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:12 pm

CMC much more in lone with current conditions, landfall in FL as 991mb TS, looks west too....

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 5 Gem_ms11

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Post by Snow88 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:15 pm

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f84.png?1364096147

SNJ hit on the ggem
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