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Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:16 pm

WOW CMC close to identical to GFS (stronger and more rain over the area, unreal, I don't recall that happening often. So GFS, CMC and NAM. Lets see if we get Euro to agree, 4 models would sell me, though it is only one run. Does this start the S & E trend now to get it a bit more over the ocean?

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 Gem_ms12





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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:17 pm

@Snow88 wrote:http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f84.png?1364096147

SNJ hit on the ggem

actually skims coast, just offshore, may give it fuel on that run, hence a bit stronger.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:20 pm

strongest winds right over NYC area into southern CT and west into jersey.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 Gem_ms13
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:24 pm

imagine if this was a snowstorm, my god we b buried....
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:25 pm

I'm thinking coastal jersey needs to be on alert
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:26 pm

Point pleasant beach has done nothing to beaches for protection no dunes or wall big trouble
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:27 pm

For comparison on GEM look at how far east it was at same time stamp on 00z. Wow

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 Cmc_pr10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:28 pm

This would effect whole area, big storm not just jersey, but yeah as for coastal in jersey b bad. Still since sANDY THEY DIDN'T LEARN THEIR LESSON?!!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:30 pm

If these runs continue I see TS watches going up as soon as Friday for jersey to at least eastern tip LI.
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Post by Quietace Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:strongest winds right over NYC area into southern CT and west into jersey.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 Gem_ms13
That is not a map of surface winds.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:32 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:strongest winds right over NYC area into southern CT and west into jersey.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 Gem_ms13
That is not a map of surface winds.

I am aware, i was told that 850 winds are closer to surface winds in tropical systems no? I was thinking this may equate to 35-50mph sustained in the darkest areas. You always have criticize me dont u ace lol
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Post by Quietace Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:34 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm thinking coastal jersey needs to be on alert
Yeah we will see. Plenty of lead time on this, plus Easterly fetch with 40-50 mph winds wouldn't be something we haven't seen before. Nothing to extreme.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:This would effect whole area, big storm not just jersey, but yeah as for coastal in jersey b bad.  Still since sANDY THEY DIDN'T LEARN THEIR LESSON?!!

No and it's not good homes still being lifted
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:36 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm thinking coastal jersey needs to be on alert
Yeah we will see. Plenty of lead time on this, plus Easterly fetch with 40-50 mph winds wouldn't be something we haven't seen before. Nothing to extreme.

But you can;t let your guard down, if I have learned anything until these are named intensity is not really reliable, could be weaker could be stronger and a lot depends on how long it spends over land and if it re-emerges into atlantic. At this point I still think no solution is in place. Though having 3 12z models similar so far is a step in the right direction of getting a better idea.
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Post by Quietace Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:37 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:strongest winds right over NYC area into southern CT and west into jersey.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 Gem_ms13
That is not a map of surface winds.

I am aware, i was told that 850 winds are closer to surface winds in tropical systems no? I was thinking this may equate to 35-50mph sustained in the darkest areas.  You always have criticize me dont u ace lol
Its till best to use 10m wind. Those don't always get mixed down to the surface. Surface wind has a maximum between hour 72-96 between 40-50 knots and decreases as system move pole-ward.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:37 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:This would effect whole area, big storm not just jersey, but yeah as for coastal in jersey b bad.  Still since sANDY THEY DIDN'T LEARN THEIR LESSON?!!

No and it's not good homes still being lifted

4 years, I mean really, I am sorry but thats just too much complacency. Theres bound to be something severe again in our lifetime, if not ours in the next generations.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:39 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:strongest winds right over NYC area into southern CT and west into jersey.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 Gem_ms13
That is not a map of surface winds.

I am aware, i was told that 850 winds are closer to surface winds in tropical systems no? I was thinking this may equate to 35-50mph sustained in the darkest areas.  You always have criticize me dont u ace lol
Its till best to use 10m wind. Those don't always get mixed down to the surface. Surface wind has a maximum between hour 72-96 between 40-50 knots and decreases as system move pole-ward.

I just like the pretty colors lol, so I was about right, I saw 64 kts so said prolly 35-50 and 40-50 mph sustained isn't anything to scoff, but also not severe. Gusts would b higher though. Assuming this played out exactly which we know it likely wont play by any rules. What do you use to see accurate surface winds? I find a lot of cmc maps do not seem accurate.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:40 pm

Remember models have been awful with this system beyond 2-3days.  Dont panic yet.  solns are still shifting drastically run to run.  In addition after landfall the system is liekly to undergo dynamic changes and will likely no longer be classified as purely tropical.  So the initialization data is as a tropical entity that transitions.  Once over land as dynamics change models may change soln yet again..maybe not but all Im saying is....

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 919689a4a12461046d04404575107bd3121e3ec78ea731ba2ed73467eab8ca96

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:43 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Remember models have been awful with this system beyond 2-3days.  Dont panic yet.  solns are still shifting drastically run to run.  In addition after landfall the system is liekly to undergo dynamic changes and will likely no longer be classified as purely tropical.  So the initialization data is as a tropical entity that transitions.  Once over land as dynamics change models may change soln yet again..maybe not but all Im saying is....

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 6 919689a4a12461046d04404575107bd3121e3ec78ea731ba2ed73467eab8ca96

Get some new material sroc lol, yeah the dynamic change will put a nitch in models, but if any preparations are needed, we need to have a decent idea a few days at least ahead of time, you said after landfall so I am thinking late thursday maybe Friday?
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Post by Snow88 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:51 pm

Ukie now on board

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:54 pm

Can we say a bit stronger than other models, ummm yes I know its 850mb but 938mb...really? If thats true ouch.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:58 pm

Other board I'm on many aren't making much of this
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:59 pm

So what models are on board now with a no landfall?
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Post by Snow88 Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:03 pm

Navgem

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:10 pm

As of 12z I do not think any.
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