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Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:56 pm

HH just got back, found 1002mb pressure, probably have TS at 11pm, or 5am.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:04 am

As snow said in the other thread the 00z CMC retrogrades a strong TS or low hurricane into NYC area.......? Some GFS ensembles are showing this too. This has been one interesting storm to say the least. Can you imagine if both storms happened, good god.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:05 am

08:04:44
@jmanley32 wrote:As snow said in the other thread the 00z CMC retrogrades a strong TS or low hurricane into NYC area.......? Some GFS ensembles are showing this too.  This has been one interesting storm to say the least.  Can you imagine if both storms happened, good god.

GFS/ GEFS and some Euro ensemble members also do the same Shocked
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:11 am

I don't get it I thought there was a ridge that would keep it ots? Any of our experts chime in? So is this now potentially a threat this weekend or early next week? Also noticed another system is spawned ahead of it after td8. Wild times.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:14 am

No topical storm yet. System doesn't look as bad as it did.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:05 am

@jmanley32 wrote:I don't get it I thought there was a ridge that would keep it ots? Any of our experts chime in? So is this now potentially a threat this weekend or early next week? Also noticed another system is spawned ahead of it after td8. Wild times.

Jman and others...the OTS soln occurs because the trough that digs into the east and picks up TD 9 and turns it north into the big bend area of Fla

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Ots_eu15


then carries it OTS in the progressive flow because the trough axis is positively tilted (SW to NE).  The Euro shows  this nicely.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Ots_eu14
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Ots_eu13

The CMC on the other hand does not dig this trough as deep, is a little faster with the trough, and TD 9 comes off the SE coast further S relative to the euro, so the system as a whole misses the trough.  Initially the trough digs deep enough to steer in N and NE but doesn't dig enough to fully capture it; so it lifts out leaving the system behind.  The next trough coming in begins to tug at it back towards the coast.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Cmc10
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Cmc_210
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Cmc_310

Like Snow mentions above there are ensemble members in both GFS and Euro camps to support this.  We will have to se how the models trend over the next 48-72hrs regarding the timing and how deep the trough actually is.  Very complex set up.  The euro soln from the other day shows a trough split.  Meaning the main energy with TD 9 gets pulled OTS with the main trough but a piece of it breaks off and hangs back along an old frontal boundary left behind then retrogrades back towards the SE coast with some tropical development possible.  Nothing about 99L to TD 9 has been been routine, and none of the models have had a true handle on this wave consistently at all.  Bottom line....

WE TRACK!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:28 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I don't get it I thought there was a ridge that would keep it ots? Any of our experts chime in? So is this now potentially a threat this weekend or early next week? Also noticed another system is spawned ahead of it after td8. Wild times.

Jman and others...the OTS soln occurs because the trough that digs into the east and picks up TD 9 and turns it north into the big bend area of Fla

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Ots_eu15


then carries it OTS in the progressive flow because the trough axis is positively tilted (SW to NE).  The Euro shows  this nicely.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Ots_eu14
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Ots_eu13

The CMC on the other hand does not dig this trough as deep, is a little faster with the trough, and TD 9 comes off the SE coast further S relative to the euro, so the system as a whole misses the trough.  Initially the trough digs deep enough to steer in N and NE but doesn't dig enough to fully capture it; so it lifts out leaving the system behind.  The next trough coming in begins to tug at it back towards the coast.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Cmc10
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Cmc_210
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Cmc_310

Like Snow mentions above there are ensemble members in both GFS and Euro camps to support this.  We will have to se how the models trend over the next 48-72hrs regarding the timing and how deep the trough actually is.  Very complex set up.  The euro soln from the other day shows a trough split.  Meaning the main energy with TD 9 gets pulled OTS with the main trough but a piece of it breaks off and hangs back along an old frontal boundary left behind then retrogrades back towards the SE coast with some tropical development possible.  Nothing about 99L to TD 9 has been been routine, and none of the models have had a true handle on this wave consistently at all.  Bottom line....

WE TRACK!!!

So one other question, it seems to greatly intensify AFTER it passes over FL, all models show that. So IF the latter solution happened we would be looking at a hurricane impact? Also 92L makes a monstrous pass at NE on 06z, I think it would be one for the record books if we got two TS or hurricanes in toe course of a week of each other.  Your right about TD9 not following the rules, or models.  I will say something about 92L in other thread. So bottom line its very complex but there is a chance we could be dealing with TD9, likely named by then if that trough picks it up and does a retrograde, which is just crazy, as models had been showing a definitive OTS solution until a day or two ago, now some runs and ensembles are show a impact. Some really strong, we track!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:41 am

GEFS, def a lot of lines heading over or very close to the area, with this and support from CMC and some euro ensembles I think we now need to watch this one much closer.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Gefs_a10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:48 am

TD9 firing up big time, looking healthy for a TD, maybe a storm today?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:15 am

[quote="jmanley32"]
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I don't get it I thought there was a ridge that would keep it ots? Any of our experts chime in? So is this now potentially a threat this weekend or early next week? Also noticed another system is spawned ahead of it after td8. Wild times.



So one other question, it seems to greatly intensify AFTER it passes over FL, all models show that. So IF the latter solution happened we would be looking at a hurricane impact? Also 92L makes a monstrous pass at NE on 06z, I think it would be one for the record books if we got two TS or hurricanes in toe course of a week of each other.  Your right about TD9 not following the rules, or models.  I will say something about 92L in other thread. So bottom line its very complex but there is a chance we could be dealing with TD9, likely named by then if that trough picks it up and does a retrograde, which is just crazy, as models had been showing a definitive OTS solution until a day or two ago, now some runs and ensembles are show a impact.  Some really strong, we track!


Likely no but it would depend on just how much intensification takes place off the SE coast.  Last nights video from Levi covers what might help or hinder intensification as it makes landfall and heads off the SE coast:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:53 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I don't get it I thought there was a ridge that would keep it ots? Any of our experts chime in? So is this now potentially a threat this weekend or early next week? Also noticed another system is spawned ahead of it after td8. Wild times.



So one other question, it seems to greatly intensify AFTER it passes over FL, all models show that. So IF the latter solution happened we would be looking at a hurricane impact? Also 92L makes a monstrous pass at NE on 06z, I think it would be one for the record books if we got two TS or hurricanes in toe course of a week of each other.  Your right about TD9 not following the rules, or models.  I will say something about 92L in other thread. So bottom line its very complex but there is a chance we could be dealing with TD9, likely named by then if that trough picks it up and does a retrograde, which is just crazy, as models had been showing a definitive OTS solution until a day or two ago, now some runs and ensembles are show a impact.  Some really strong, we track!


Likely no but it would depend on just how much intensification takes place off the SE coast.  Last nights video from Levi covers what might help or hinder intensification as it makes landfall and heads off the SE coast:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Great video sroc looks like it has lots going against it
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:56 am

Yeah saw his video but the ensembles have been show a bend back west as did the CMC, so I guess its a slight possibility.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah saw his video but the ensembles have been show a bend back west as did the CMC, so I guess its a slight possibility.

Video was not to show what Levi thinks the track will do after it exits the coast; rather, all of the dynamics at play both before landfall in the GOM as well as as it exits the SE coast line. There is still a wide cone of uncertainty off the SE coast Levi knows that even though he says prob out to see in the video.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:01 pm

GFS showing it just missing the trough or not quite missing...not done yet

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_17

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:07 pm

@sroc4 wrote:GFS showing it just missing the trough or not quite missing...not done yet

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_17

thanks for posting the video..he explains things very clearly..just like you, Frank and Mugs!!..can't wait to be tracking winter weather!!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:14 pm

@sroc4 wrote:GFS showing it just missing the trough or not quite missing...not done yet

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_17
The 12z GFS backs it into LI as a 975mb storm, or close to the coast anyways, waiting to see if it heads inland or back OTS.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_pr10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:19 pm

It comes real close then heads east just south of cape cod, interesting change in track past few days of runs, cone by NHC is also slightly more north than it was before but not much, big uncertainty for sure.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:30 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:GFS showing it just missing the trough or not quite missing...not done yet

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_us_17

thanks for posting the video..he explains things very clearly..just like you, Frank and Mugs!!..can't wait to be tracking winter weather!!

You are so welcome!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by rb924119 Tue Aug 30, 2016 12:36 pm

I honestly am not buying a retrograding storm in this scenario. Can't give a huge explanation because I'm at work, but if you look at the 500 hPa anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere centered over North America, you have the following: Strongly positive EPO, strongly negative PNA and absolutely zero Atlantic blocking. How does this help when discussing tropics? The GFS solution, specifically today's 12z, is heavily reliant upon a piece of this weekend's trough digging far into the Southeastern States and interacting with the tropical entity enough so that it prevents it from getting embedded in the westerlies of the lifting and progressive trough. Instead, this interaction allows a cyclogenesis event similar to what we can see in the winter (with respect to the track) where the trough goes from a positive tilt, to neutral, to nearly negative, before it finally becomes embedded in the westerlies at our latitude. However, it is obviously different in the fact that this a tropical entity, so the reasons for why the trough is able to change orientations are different (here, the ridge wave breaks over the top of the entity and then is reinforced by the diabatic heat release from the convection of the system).

The reason that I don't buy this solution is because none of the factors I highlighted at the beginning; the strongly positive EPO, strongly negative PNA and no Atlantic blocking do not support energy digging even remotely close to deep enough to allow this type of interaction to occur. A bit concerning, by the same token, is that the GFS has had the best handle on this system regarding its intensity to date. Just my quick opinion. Feel free to discuss lol

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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:35 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I honestly am not buying a retrograding storm in this scenario. Can't give a huge explanation because I'm at work, but if you look at the 500 hPa anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere centered over North America, you have the following: Strongly positive EPO, strongly negative PNA and absolutely zero Atlantic blocking. How does this help when discussing tropics? The GFS solution, specifically today's 12z, is heavily reliant upon a piece of this weekend's trough digging far into the Southeastern States and interacting with the tropical entity enough so that it prevents it from getting embedded in the westerlies of the lifting and progressive trough. Instead, this interaction allows a cyclogenesis event similar to what we can see in the winter (with respect to the track) where the trough goes from a positive tilt, to neutral, to nearly negative, before it finally becomes embedded in the westerlies at our latitude. However, it is obviously different in the fact that this a tropical entity, so the reasons for why the trough is able to change orientations are different (here, the ridge wave breaks over the top of the entity and then is reinforced by the diabatic heat release from the convection of the system).

The reason that I don't buy this solution is because none of the factors I highlighted at the beginning; the strongly positive EPO, strongly negative PNA and no Atlantic blocking do not support energy digging even remotely close to deep enough to allow this type of interaction to occur. A bit concerning, by the same token, is that the GFS has had the best handle on this system regarding its intensity to date. Just my quick opinion. Feel free to discuss lol

I def have some thoughts both for and against your argument, but not enough time to discuss at the moment. I can see it both ways depending on trends at 500mb

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:58 pm

Retrogrades and comes real close on 12z GFS, getting a little interesting for sure.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:18 pm

What's the timeframe for this if it comes up this way
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:29 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:What's the timeframe for this if it comes up this way

3rd-5th ish

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jake732 Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:40 pm

what are the possibilities for us anyways? a ts? or less?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:42 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:What's the timeframe for this if it comes up this way

3rd-5th ish
and 92l b about what Franks scroll says right? God imagine back to back systems. I know I said that b4 but that b wow. 3rd to 5th not far away we need to know in next two to 3 days.
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