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Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:43 pm

@jake732 wrote:what are the possibilities for us anyways? a ts? or less?
well 12z gfs surface pressure showed 972mb which b high ts maybe cat 1 I think. 92l who knows at this pt but it could b a beast some runs showing 940mb.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:47 pm

Okayyy euro has even odder solution headed ots and decides to make a loop back to the area. This is getting interesting.
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Post by algae888 Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:03 pm

The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:31 pm

@algae888 wrote:The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
ahh what's damage as long we are cool right....cmc ensemble goes right over nj and nyc
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:53 pm

12z GFS Ensembles all show some form of impact to the area besides one member. Hmmm. Beginning to like the captured idea?
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Post by algae888 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
ahh what's damage as long we are cool right....cmc ensemble goes right over nj and nyc
Damage from what? A tropical depression? The rains would be welcome here as we are in this moderate drought. Dont play it up like we getting a category 3 hurricane Very Happy
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:15 pm

Not saying that but I think it could b more than a depression with the sst. We shall see. Satellite is look better. And I was jk. No idea what intensity this will b if it does pull a capture move.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:27 pm

And there have been runs that have it a hurricane as it reaches the area so I'm not discounting anything till it's passed us by or we have a firm grasp on the track
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:28 pm

It's clear to me that the upper air pattern is changing with each model run and we need to watch this for our area. NOT SAYING ITS COMING SAYING things are changing
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:37 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:It's clear to me that the upper air pattern is changing with each model run and we need to watch this for our area. NOT SAYING ITS COMING SAYING things are changing
very well said too early to say if it will come. We should have much better idea in next 48 hrs. I mean 3rd to 5th timeframe just around corner.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:45 pm

Ryan maue has several tweets about the area needing keep close eye on this for labor day weekend retrograde. He is very into tropics so that means something to me.
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Post by frank 638 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:51 pm

i know its early to say this and the models are keep changeing are we going to see some rain and wind out of it beside rough surf

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Post by amugs Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:52 pm

I have not posted much in the tropics here cause I am patiently waiting for these trop entities to show their hands a bit but it is not happening as of yet. But what from what I can see is that if we get a split trough with the first part not capturing the TS and carrying OTS then we have an issue up here IMHO. If the patterns as Skins said so truthfully keeps changing then peeps can be in for one hell of a surprise. Is it possible - absolutely have had hcanes do loops sure is everything on teh table absolutely.

A met posted this map and if this were to come to fruition yuo have a back side trough pulling the Trop Cyclone towards the coast and heights high as all heck over the SE CAN region that will act as block. I do think the westerlies will win out with this one in teh end but I think we do not get so lucky for the next few!

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500trend_atl_9

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:58 pm

@amugs wrote:I have not posted much in the tropics here cause I am patiently waiting for these trop entities to show their hands a bit but it is not happening as of yet. But what from what I can see is that if we get a split trough with the first part not capturing the TS and carrying OTS then we have an issue up here IMHO. If the patterns as Skins said so truthfully keeps changing then peeps can be in for one hell of a surprise. Is it possible - absolutely have had hcanes do loops sure is everything on teh table absolutely.

A met posted this map and if this were to come to fruition yuo have a back side trough pulling the Trop Cyclone towards the coast and heights high as all heck over the SE CAN region that will act as block. I do think the westerlies will win out with this one in teh end but I think we do not get so lucky for the next few!

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500trend_atl_9
I was saying this could b sneaky and if more than a weak ts won't have much time prepare. Next few well.let's focus on 92l as imo that's our biggest threat.
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Post by amugs Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:07 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 JMA2.thumb.gif.777c1538d7dcf2301c47e44a120f2972

Looky see big HP to our North SE or more East Can

Blue for $1000 Alex?
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 09L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.132d3b8e4f2730c83755149825ca15fc

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 09L_intensity_latest.png.09fa14942b8a87bd075c31405052ab1b

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:09 pm

Hurricane watches posted as of 5pm advisory for all of Florida big bend. Guess nhc thinking on the stronger side. Still has cone as ts. The convection is finally exploding over the center. Let's see if this can finally.live up to something and get a freaking name lol
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:11 pm

It's just my hunch but we are go see something from this big or small will have to see.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:11 pm

NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:13 pm

@Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?
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Post by Snow88 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?

I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now
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Post by Snow88 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:15 pm

Hurricane watches for northern Florida
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:22 pm

Watching twc. I know don't kill me. Has 70mph ts in the northern most part of cone.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:24 pm

@Snow88 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?

I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now
yeah think ur right still may not matter in terms of if it actually comes in or not.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:22 pm

@Snow88 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?

I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now

the video I posted in Banter has a good explanation of Sandy and what made it a superstorm...along with footage of the area
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Post by aiannone Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:43 pm

@amugs wrote:Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 JMA2.thumb.gif.777c1538d7dcf2301c47e44a120f2972

Looky see big HP to our North SE or more East Can

Blue for $1000 Alex?
Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 09L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.132d3b8e4f2730c83755149825ca15fc

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 3 09L_intensity_latest.png.09fa14942b8a87bd075c31405052ab1b

I'll take it! I'll drive home from school for it lol!
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