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Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:If euro is right hermine will make landfall very close where Sandy made landfall. Devastating for the Jersey Shore especially Southern Jersey but not that big of a deal for New York City north and west

Really Al? What town are you in? I lost power for 7 days, the gas shortage caused chaos, yes it wasn't the devastation of the shore but I wouldn't say it wasn't a big deal.  This could also trend stronger giving even more wind up this way.  I know your the last person that wants this but like syo said its out of our control.
Show me a wind map that has 75-mile wind gusts for where you and I live jman. I haven't seen one yet
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:03 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Garrett Bastardi (related to JB?) says its very much like Sandy, some are tweeting this could top Sandy, scary thought.  I for one realized its still hot out and losing power for 7 days would be aweful compared to cold with sandy.  Plus even more foliage than October.  Yikes.
It will Top Sandy in Southern New Jersey and with the long duration coastal flooding even up into the bays of New York City and Long Island Sound. The wind maps that everyone posted were 850 Maps we would need some strong conviction to mix those winds down to the surface however models are not showing strong conviction New York City Metro north and west
We do not know exact location, and the gust maps are not 850s, right now our area is for a time in 40-60kt wind gusts. May not be sandy winds but we also have not seen if this strengthens even more, and its not far from where sandy made landfall, so if intensity is similar its not go b fun all up and down NJ to NYC and CT. Just saying, you may be right, just my opinion.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:03 pm

The NAM looks EURO esque so far.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:04 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:If euro is right hermine will make landfall very close where Sandy made landfall. Devastating for the Jersey Shore especially Southern Jersey but not that big of a deal for New York City north and west

Really Al? What town are you in? I lost power for 7 days, the gas shortage caused chaos, yes it wasn't the devastation of the shore but I wouldn't say it wasn't a big deal.  This could also trend stronger giving even more wind up this way.  I know your the last person that wants this but like syo said its out of our control.
Show me a wind map that has 75-mile wind gusts for where you and I live jman. I haven't seen one yet

No no, I haven't seen that yet, near 60mph on Euro for a time surface yes, but IF it trends stronger I was saying or comes even the slightest further north, not try get into a argument Al, its cool.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM looks EURO esque so far.

I was afraid you might say that lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:07 pm

I am gonna just watch and post maps for now cuz, really we do not know whats gonna happen, its pointless for me to project something so difficult.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:07 pm

12z EPS MATCH the OP. Wow.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 37 IMG_20160902_160618.jpg.99953ccaa14e31aa14ecaa12b44c5c91

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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:08 pm

The 10 m wind map Franks posted on previous page shows maximum 50 mile-an-hour wind gust for lower Westchester. Obviously it could get stronger but as of now it's nothing like Sandy for a lower Westchester and areas north and west
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z EPS MATCH the OP. Wow.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 37 IMG_20160902_160618.jpg.99953ccaa14e31aa14ecaa12b44c5c91

I just saw that too. Definitely not a good sign.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:10 pm

@algae888 wrote:The 10 m wind map Franks posted on previous page shows maximum 50 mile-an-hour wind gust for lower Westchester. Obviously it could get stronger but as of now it's nothing like Sandy for a lower Westchester and areas north and west
Those are winds in kts 50-54 in the general area, so 50kts is 58mph, 54 I am not sure but a bit over 60mph. Still IMO nothing to scoff at.  But yes I agree with you for now.  And I misread you I thought you were saying that Sandy was no big deal for NYC and NW.  You were speaking about effects for Hermine, my bad.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:12 pm

Sandy on a scale of 1 to 10 was a 10 for those along NJ shore and NYC.

Hermine could be an 8 or 9. That's a big deal.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:13 pm

NAM 33 hrs, is way east of the 12z, what do you think Frank is it going to retrograde?
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Post by jake732 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:14 pm

what winds can we see on jersey shore?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Sandy on a scale of 1 to 10 was a 10 for those along NJ shore and NYC.

Hermine could be an 8 or 9. That's a big deal.

He has spoken and I will leave it at that, Thanks leader, cant wait for your blog.
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Post by Quietace Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:16 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Sandy on a scale of 1 to 10 was a 10 for those along NJ shore and NYC.

Hermine could be an 8 or 9. That's a big deal.
Or a 10 after looking at the EPS...

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:25 pm

Insanity. Surge.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 37 IMG_20160902_162244.jpg.e0a07cfeec59c00c5fe37a06d65ad313

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Post by Quietace Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Insanity. Surge.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 37 IMG_20160902_162244.jpg.e0a07cfeec59c00c5fe37a06d65ad313
Back Bays and rivers on C/SNJ probably over 7ft when you include runoff and full moon.

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Post by Vinnydula Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:43 pm

Can anyone show me what this will look like over cape cod I'll be going up Sunday for a camping trip
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Post by jake732 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN NJ
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The 10 m wind map Franks posted on previous page shows maximum 50 mile-an-hour wind gust for lower Westchester. Obviously it could get stronger but as of now it's nothing like Sandy for a lower Westchester and areas north and west
Those are winds in kts 50-54 in the general area, so 50kts is 58mph, 54 I am not sure but a bit over 60mph.  Still IMO nothing to scoff at.  But yes I agree with you for now.  And I misread you I thought you were saying that Sandy was no big deal for NYC and NW.  You were speaking about effects for Hermine, my bad.

AL I had 64 mph wind gusts with Sandy so this is very comparable and I have full oak tree with leaves - many of the tree back (SANDY) then lost many leaves due to it being late October so it will catch the wind - 5-8 mph is not a big deal but when yuo factor in that we have full foilage - this becomes BIGGER deal.

This is setting up to be a dangerous situation.


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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:45 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 37 Default_mother%20of%20god

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:45 pm

Ts warnings posted jersey coast. Nyc now in 50 to 60 chance area. Cone shifted west suggesting retrograde.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:49 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 37 153527W5_NL_sm

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:50 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 37 153527

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:50 pm

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