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Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:11 pm

@amugs wrote:The trends are there with the west aspect to this the North aspect for those who are a Dr. Destructor need about another 50 mile  jog North if you want this.
as I just posted nhc ts watch update increased potential for high end ts force. So maybe that north component they see.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:13 pm

Gfs the rain moved west and bit north the huge amounts are not that far offshore.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:14 pm

I smell warnines coming for rest watch area going by what nhc said in update for local area.
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Post by Guest Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:20 pm

@amugs wrote:Hurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 39 Edc29f2d-feb1-4c4b-bb2c-bdcf44b4db2bHurricane Hermine Discussion  - Page 39 3b515b2a-b1fe-4d51-a5a8-eba085c1ffd7.thumb.gif.2323f0bd60570daf4b558866e772f757
a little north jog to it?

Yes. The 2nd post after hour 72 shows a north move. The previous was due west and further south. Got ya buddy Very Happy

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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:27 pm

either I am going crazyor maybe I'm wrong every future cast has no rain for  Jersey NYC long island and parts of Connecticut the reason why I say this because channel 7 and channel 5  has the rain in the ocean

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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:29 pm

This is a very unique and impressive system. If the models are correct today Southern New Jersey and Delaware are going to see more destruction than what Sandy caused. Too close for comfort for my liking where I live but this would still have to shift a good hundred miles north to have the same effects of Sandy here.
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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:30 pm

@frank 638 wrote:either I am going crazyor maybe I'm wrong every future cast has no rain for  Jersey NYC long island and parts of Connecticut the reason why I say this because channel 7 and channel 5  has the rain in the ocean
Frank don't forget with Sandy I had well under an inch of rain it's not the rain that so concerning it's the tidel surge which would last for days and the winds which could also possibly last for days
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Post by jake732 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:32 pm

How much damage can be done from 45 mph?
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:35 pm

@frank 638 wrote:either I am going crazyor maybe I'm wrong every future cast has no rain for  Jersey NYC long island and parts of Connecticut the reason why I say this because channel 7 and channel 5  has the rain in the ocean

I can't believe the forecasting here well I do playing it cautious so as to not panic the masses. Why why are they not saying TS warnings for the entire jersey shoreline and into ny harbour?? With TS watches for li south shore?

Yes they have about 1" into the city and about 3-4" in the city.

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:38 pm

@jake732 wrote:How much damage can be done from 45 mph?

For prolonged periods of time possibly moderate, remember trees have full foliage and if this lasts for 24, 36 hours, this will have impacts even away from the coastal sections. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE SUCH STORMS AND BIG MOMMA

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:43 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:either I am going crazyor maybe I'm wrong every future cast has no rain for  Jersey NYC long island and parts of Connecticut the reason why I say this because channel 7 and channel 5  has the rain in the ocean
Frank don't forget with Sandy I had well under an inch of rain it's not the rain that so concerning it's the tidel surge which would last for days and the winds which could also possibly last for days

I agree with Al...Sandy was not a rain maker like Irene...it was a storm of surge and wind...
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:43 pm

Well I have to finally wave the white flag, although I still think there is a slim chance that a trend further S and or east is still possible between tonight and tomorrow 12z. That said serious storm surge and beach erosion is unavoidable regardless of the final track outcome. The precip concerns will likely come tolight when the shorter range Hi res models come into range. I have family staying with me so it has been hard for me to post without my wife ripping me, but SOB this storm is nuts. I cant believe we have been tracking this storm for like two weeks!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:45 pm

Also winds will likely gust higher than 50 mph for most area even inland. Wow days of wind like that would b crazy. As for rain I was outside and dry for majority of storm.evening it rained. Irene was a soaker. Jak where are u? Coastal areas of nj and nyc area and li will prolly see winds to higher level ts in gusts.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:45 pm

Frank...are you going to do a blog tonight...or a live chat...Thanks!!
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:46 pm

Also we have been very dry in some parts and the trees from what my biology teachers friend said are syressed, those weakened and diseases or insect inside infected trees wil come down as will weakened limbs.

So trop force winds and gusts even 40 mph can do some damage and cause power outages.

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Post by mwilli5783 Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:52 pm

when this system stalls off the northeast i think we better look at africa cause there are at least 2 entity's out there now plus a monster of a wave about to leave the africa coastline

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:02 pm

Mugs what do u think max winds might b up here do u agree with nhc saying moderate chance of 57 to 73mph?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:03 pm

Frank said he doing blog for 7pm fyi guys. Prolly working on it now as not posting.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:08 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank said he doing blog for 7pm fyi guys. Prolly working on it now as not posting.

thanks. jman..was rushing around today to get what we might need...I missed him saying there would be a blog!!

Jman fyi..stores were busy...mostly for people getting ready for BBQ's this weekend..I heard several conversations...as I had all my storm supplies piled in the cart...
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:19 pm

Wow I went shopping dead. If this pans out bad no one is go b ready.
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Post by Guest Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:29 pm

Leaving and going to be mobile next 24 hours. Won't be posting much or at all but will be constantly checking in. Give me Sandy part 2!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:43 pm

I guess we are not seeing a 7pm blog from Frank, hoping he is just delayed.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:44 pm

Many here downplaying it which is not good.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:50 pm

Yeah I heard Skins. My parents are on LBI right now and they said that it's packed and nobody is even mentioning this thing. I told to do what they had to and get off as soon as possible because it's gonna be gridlock once people realize.

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:.....to sound like a broken record, now that the track has shifted west and slightly north, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE that Long Island will get sustained 30 mph winds with gusts to 60+ and major surge for 3+ days from a storm located off Atlantic City NJ and inside the Benchmark yet only receive 1-2" of rain.  This IMO is a freakin meteorological impossibility

....should be 1-2" in 30 minutes on and off from bands for heavens sake

During Hurricane Sandy, NYC got 0.94" of rain. Islip got 0.71"

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