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September 2016 Observations & Discussion

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Snow88
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Post by 1190ftalt Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:07 pm

Now pouring!whooaa hoooo! Nice, pouring and cool breeze!
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Post by 1190ftalt Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:16 pm

Still raining not pouring anymore, probably got 1 inch rain! Temp was 84 now 68 degrees, storm heading east, good luck!
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:08 pm

1190 good for u, Cold front sweeping through and it just got overcast here in good ol H'dale.

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Post by amugs Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:10 pm

Gfs says fall, frost midwest ,core of heartland USA and coast torches,  endless summer incoming

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Img_2012

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:24 pm

Euro pumps the BH ridge wow
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-MfCVeK.png.347b2ddfca6bcf820cfe99dd683dc6a5

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Guest Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:20 pm

Just had the most intense thunderstorm of the season here. Not so much wind wise or thunder and lightning, but torrential rain. .73" of rain in 25 minutes. Western half of LI from the city to western Suffolk all .5"+.

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Post by Dtone Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:21 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Dtone wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:For what its worth busted high today, expected max of 83 and hit 87... typical.
yes even our cold shots only get us to normal now. I would be very hesitant to go with a below temp profile for this winter, any season for the matter, as we have had one above normal month after another. dry conditions should be highly weighted as I feel this along with a warming planet has contributed to this AN temp departure which seems endless. also mean skewed by 30 year ave. we may not see a below normal season until the 2020's.

Imagine 14+ straight months of below normal temps instead of above. Seems unfathomable. I have a hard time remembering  3 days in a row below normal much less a single month.  
Aug 2016 was warmest Aug ever at many urban stations, 3rd warmest at Central Park.  These top 10 warm months with regularaity makes normal feel like the new cold.


AA - American Amnesia

Feb March 2015 ring a bell???? People were crying on this forum about how cold it was and can't wait for it to stop and have a spring which was delayed that year as it was in 2014 .

AS per the warmth, not starting a fight at all, facts - solar minimum to be reached near 2020 as the ball of fire starts to retract and our heat source says hold on bombarding us with flares and radiation - it is happening already (20 days of no solar flares - most in 6 years). Effects can take months and last for months once they take hold as was evident in the 1950's/60's and from late 80's through about now with an active sun. 76-77.78-79 cold and BN months with low solar activity the previous year(s) and talk of a mini ice age.
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Global_cooling

Did I jump out of my skin when I saw this cover page as a young boy - hells yes!!!

Interesting how this in and of itself can shape our weather, the oceans are the other but what fuels this massive fluid - the ball of fusion  - if you do not believe this then I do not know what to tell you except this picture:
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Earth-Compared-To-Sun-Size-1

I def do remember that very cold early 2015, that was the last time I remember any notable below normal stretch.
Solar activity is an interesting variable, its a wildcard I want to get a better understanding of.

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Post by Dtone Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:27 pm

nice t storm. downpours and some gusty winds. Saw a power line down swinging in the wind off the cross bx. I was a little surprised b/c I heard some much that the cold front has little moisture..but just watched Lee explain weakening storms ran into an incoming sea breeze and exploded right over NYC.

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:28 pm

I can't believe that you people think that the sun plays a role on our planets' weather. Shocked Shocked Shocked tongue tongue

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 14, 2016 7:57 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I can't believe that you people think that the sun plays a role on our planets' weather. Shocked Shocked Shocked tongue tongue

You can't get a sun shower without the sun.

#logic

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Post by UnionWX Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:01 pm

0.0". Just missed .75" + a few miles to the north today. Trees are stressed, already changing color actually and leaves began falling about a month ago. Feels great outside. Currently down to 73F.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:39 am

65 here
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:18 am

56* here this morning - looking at mid 40's tonight - FALL like!!

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_neus_5


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:20 am

BEAUTIFUL morning and day today. 65* I'm loving it
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:09 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I can't believe that you people think that the sun plays a role on our planets' weather. Shocked Shocked Shocked tongue tongue

Without it the planet would be a cold hunk of rock in the dark void of space with no weather or life, so I think it does kinda...
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Post by docstox12 Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:39 pm

Already down to 50 degrees here.30.02 R and 89%.Clear,
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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 16, 2016 2:58 am

@docstox12 wrote:Already down to 50 degrees here.30.02 R and 89%.Clear,
55* here doc coolest morning in some time. we will warm up some next week but lr gfs has some well below normal temps very late this month into early October. could be first frost for inland area's...
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_us_48
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_T850_us_48
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_45
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46
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Post by docstox12 Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:19 am

Great information,Al.Always nice to see that first frost of the season often in September.Only got down to 45.5 right now.Thought we might have had a first night in the 30's but maybe next week or so according to your data.Anyhoo, nice welcome break dfrom this hot summer.
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Post by Guest Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:31 am

@docstox12 wrote:Great information,Al.Always nice to see that first frost of the season often in September.Only got down to 45.5 right now.Thought we might have had a first night in the 30's but maybe next week or so according to your data.Anyhoo, nice welcome break dfrom this hot summer.

Doc. My parents up north of you in the catskills up in Ulster County got down to 38 last night. Here on LI north shore I hit 55.







h





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Post by docstox12 Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:51 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Great information,Al.Always nice to see that first frost of the season often in September.Only got down to 45.5 right now.Thought we might have had a first night in the 30's but maybe next week or so according to your data.Anyhoo, nice welcome break dfrom this hot summer.

Doc.  My parents up north of you in the catskills up in Ulster County got down to 38 last night.  Here on LI north shore I hit 55.

OK Jimmy, thanks for that report and it checks, because I had 45 down here South of your parents.






h




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Post by algae888 Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:01 am

significant rain event looks more likely this weekend as moisture from Julia get up into our area.
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_apcpn_us_15
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Namconus_apcpn_us_28
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Post by amugs Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:48 pm

@algae888 wrote:significant rain event looks more likely this weekend as moisture  from Julia get up into our area.
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_apcpn_us_15
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Namconus_apcpn_us_28

Look at the GEM LAM -WETTTT

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 PR_000-048_0000

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:25 pm

I am looking forward for the rain we def need it our drought is getting worse and worse .at what time will we see the rain and for how long will it last

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Post by Vinnydula Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:47 pm

Poor trees are so brown
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:26 pm

Rain will move in late tonight. Heaviest will be around Noon tomorrow with clearing taking place after 3pm.

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_4

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