NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

September 2016 Observations & Discussion

+20
Snow88
UnionWX
1190ftalt
sroc4
Radz
weatherwatchermom
docstox12
Dunnzoo
SNOW MAN
algae888
NjWeatherGuy
oldtimer
jmanley32
amugs
frank 638
Frank_Wx
dkodgis
Dtone
Math23x7
snow247
24 posters

Page 4 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:29 pm

I believe average High's this time of year are supposed to be in the mid to upper 70's. We will not see that anytime soon...

We'll be in the low to mid 80s into next week

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:50 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I believe average High's this time of year are supposed to be in the mid to upper 70's. We will not see that anytime soon...

We'll be in the low to mid 80s into next week
frank backdoor cold front comes through Friday night look at these temps models are spitting out. November like...
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Gem_T2m_us_24
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Gem_T2m_us_28
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Gfs_T2m_us_28
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Gfs_T2m_us_30
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Gfs_T850_us_28
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf_T850_us_8
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:55 am

nao looks to be crashing this week. very amplified pattern.
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Nao.sprd2
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500a_us_8
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:09 am

@algae888 wrote:nao looks to be crashing this week. very amplified pattern.
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Nao.sprd2
September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500a_us_8

Latest GFS shows another front dropping in afterwards with similarly cool temps.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:39 am

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Inxr1Knyca_h

Looks whats heading our way - I 95 train

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Inxr1Kphla_h

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12420
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:19 am

^Heaviest banding looks to stay in SNJ
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:22 am

But overall radar indication seems to show a nice robust hybrid type extratropical system merged with the remnants of Julia which has been drawn north over the past cpl days.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by RJB8525 Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:32 am

Well we needed the rain...we definitely got it today
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:00 am

Got crushed here
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:37 am

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.7086956521739131&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=381.6564417177914&centery=207.54601226993867&transx=-18.34355828220862&transy=-32

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6970
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by docstox12 Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:40 am

This radar at 11:37 AM is EXACTLY what I expect to see all winter long with any big snowstorms, most of the precip going S and E,LOL.I know,I know... there goes Doc AGAIN, but it's uncanny how this S and E pattern just keeps repeating itself.I don't expect it to change unless we have a full winter of N and W areas getting more snow.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:53 am

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a Flash Flood Warning for: central Suffolk County in southeastern New York.

Until 2:00 PM EDT.
At 11:06 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated Heavy Rain across the warned area, with another area of heavy rain moving in from the south. Rainfall amounts of one to two inches of rain have fallen. Flash Flooding is expected to begin shortly.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6970
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:31 pm

Yeah sroc u and ct are get hsmmered. How did that not move through this area it's a solid band.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:38 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah sroc u and ct are get hsmmered. How did that not move through this area it's a solid band.

Its filled in because of the tropical moisture feed from Julia. The frontal boundary was spotty at best until it reached the coast where it then quickly filled in via that connection. Its all a timing thing

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6970
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:43 pm

This loop shows it fill in nicely:

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Codnexlab.NEXRAD.OKX.N0Q.20160919.1640.200ani

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6970
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:06 pm

October Analogs - Warmth incoming after a cold fall shot that Al posted above

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Cst2RGsXgAAUnsV

Cold will not be lasting from this incoming shot and we need moisture to help propagate this, it helps with teh feedback of the HP systems. Dryness usually equals warmth and we have the SE ridge or BH pumping out in the Hotlantic.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12420
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:43 pm

@amugs wrote:October Analogs - Warmth incoming after a cold fall shot that Al posted above

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Cst2RGsXgAAUnsV

Cold will not be lasting from this incoming shot and we need moisture to help propagate this, it helps with teh feedback of the HP systems. Dryness usually equals warmth and we have the SE ridge or BH pumping out in the Hotlantic.
Mugs I'll take that look for the whole winter as long as it's active with plenty of storms the map looks only +1 for our area which nowadays is normal or below
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:20 pm

Wow just got home and over 2 inches in the bucket 2.36 to be exact and still raining
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:31 pm

Big cold on all models starting saturday and lasting into next week. 3-6" of snow for nne per euro and snow for the rockies as well. 850 temps get to 0*c for northern burbs on several days.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:38 pm

If these cold shots materialize Could see first frost and maybe even freeze if models are right. Growing up in the 60's and 70's always had first 30's* day in early october. With the planet scorching right now can't remember the last time that happened.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:18 pm

First sub 50* forecast low fot my area and still in september! Temps around 10* below normal. Nws thinks so
aturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by frank 638 Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:29 pm

Almost an 1" of rainfall today .cloudy and 72 * now we go back to summer when will this crap end

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2365
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 38
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:35 pm

Love my new toy!! We got 2.09 inches of rain today!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3023
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:43 pm

South and East AGAIN! Only .41" here in NNJ.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4400
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by docstox12 Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:45 pm

LOL, Dunz, only .22 up here.OH NO!!!!!!!!!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

September 2016 Observations & Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum