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Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:49 pm

@snow247 wrote:LOL, 4km NAM.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Nam4km_mslp_uv850_neus_42
Woah baby! How come its so diff than 12km NAM, they do not take same tracks?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:50 pm

@rb924119 wrote:UH OH CHECK OUT IT'S MOTION THROUGH 78!!!!

No Bueno for me!!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:50 pm

@snow247 wrote:LOL, 4km NAM.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Nam4km_mslp_uv850_neus_42

Annnnnnnd that's what I get for hoping. HOW IN THE BLUE HELL DOES THE SAME GOD DARN MODEL WITH A HIGHER RESOLUTION COME IN WITH A DIFFERENT AND WORSE SOLUTION??!!!! ughhhh

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:51 pm

OH SNIKES _ NW MORE JESUS!!!

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Nam4km_mslp_uv850_neus_42.thumb.png.466d151cbbe2fc401866095a16c7ac56

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:52 pm

I will say though that it's projected intensity honestly makes sense to me, given the conditions. Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:52 pm

We're in for a long week.

Grandparents return from Italy tomorrow. They're going to wish to go back by Sunday.

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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:53 pm

I better be able to make it back to Binghamton Tuesday lol
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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:56 pm

area we'llill the rest of the area will see tropical storm warnings

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:56 pm

Remember a weaker pressure storm teh HP/Block has a bigger influence on it for one - secondly a stronger storm can get further north into teh block.

Also the fast it gets out off the coast it can get ne more before the pull back to teh coast which could be disastrous - a bigger surge of water as it brings it back to the coast and stronger since it gets to deeper warm waters too.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:57 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Nam.thumb.PNG.f7ab54a1e7c51ef9ad6030b87c685414

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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:59 pm

I am sorry my phone is acting up I meant when will the rest of the area will see tropical storm warnings

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:02 pm

Good points mugs. RGEM is running-initialized at 997 mb and close to the right spot. As Scott would say; WE TRACK!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:03 pm

Slightly northwest of 12z through 12.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:07 pm

Boiling

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Sst10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:07 pm

THE HP is modelled at 1024 - anything around 990's or greater 980's can push up the gut on this - it won't get away or out from under this but it can push up against it - christ 50 -75 miles N or even NW is a world of difference with this storm as we are seeing modelled

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Post by snow247 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:08 pm

Just saw this posted on the other board.


Ominous final paragraph of Jack Beven's disco from NHC tonight:

The initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned baroclinic trough. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should decelerate and gradually turn more toward the north. The dynamical models agree that the surface center should make at least a partial cyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level low. After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS shows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system somewhat faster toward the east-northeast. The new forecast track shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may require some adjustment to the track in later advisories.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:09 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Boiling

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Sst10

Latent Heat to feed the beast Scott. Is he stacked vertically by yuo rmaps - other board met said yes he was stacked but no maps to verify. IF this is so then we can see intensification once he gets to teh open waters

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:10 pm

Through 18 it still has it just bopping around off of NC lol This model looks about as confused as I am lmfao

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:11 pm

NHC maps:

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 11pm_c12
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:13 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Boiling

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Sst10

That's ridiculous.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:14 pm

RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:15 pm

Up the ante

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 213512

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:16 pm

@rb924119 wrote:RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.

looks like rgem has 500mb vorticity a strung out mess.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 Rgem_510

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:17 pm

@amugs wrote:Up the ante

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 5 213512

Its amazing they have a 30-40% shot into northern MA!
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:19 pm

Orrrrrr maybe not. Starts really turning hard toward the end of its run. If it went out further it might have actually come really, really, REALLY close.

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