Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

@snow247 wrote:LOL, 4km NAM.

Woah baby! How come its so diff than 12km NAM, they do not take same tracks?

@rb924119 wrote:UH OH CHECK OUT IT'S MOTION THROUGH 78!!!!

No Bueno for me!!!

@snow247 wrote:LOL, 4km NAM.

Annnnnnnd that's what I get for hoping. HOW IN THE BLUE HELL DOES THE SAME GOD DARN MODEL WITH A HIGHER RESOLUTION COME IN WITH A DIFFERENT AND WORSE SOLUTION??!!!! ughhhh

OH SNIKES _ NW MORE JESUS!!!

I will say though that it's projected intensity honestly makes sense to me, given the conditions.

We're in for a long week.

Grandparents return from Italy tomorrow. They're going to wish to go back by Sunday.

I better be able to make it back to Binghamton Tuesday lol

Remember a weaker pressure storm teh HP/Block has a bigger influence on it for one - secondly a stronger storm can get further north into teh block.

Also the fast it gets out off the coast it can get ne more before the pull back to teh coast which could be disastrous - a bigger surge of water as it brings it back to the coast and stronger since it gets to deeper warm waters too.

Good points mugs. RGEM is running-initialized at 997 mb and close to the right spot. As Scott would say; WE TRACK!!

Slightly northwest of 12z through 12.

Boiling

THE HP is modelled at 1024 - anything around 990's or greater 980's can push up the gut on this - it won't get away or out from under this but it can push up against it - christ 50 -75 miles N or even NW is a world of difference with this storm as we are seeing modelled

Just saw this posted on the other board.


Ominous final paragraph of Jack Beven's disco from NHC tonight:

The initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned baroclinic trough. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should decelerate and gradually turn more toward the north. The dynamical models agree that the surface center should make at least a partial cyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level low. After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS shows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system somewhat faster toward the east-northeast. The new forecast track shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may require some adjustment to the track in later advisories.

@sroc4 wrote:Boiling

Latent Heat to feed the beast Scott. Is he stacked vertically by yuo rmaps - other board met said yes he was stacked but no maps to verify. IF this is so then we can see intensification once he gets to teh open waters

Through 18 it still has it just bopping around off of NC lol This model looks about as confused as I am lmfao

NHC maps:

@sroc4 wrote:Boiling

That's ridiculous.

RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.

Up the ante

@rb924119 wrote:RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.

looks like rgem has 500mb vorticity a strung out mess.

@amugs wrote:Up the ante

Its amazing they have a 30-40% shot into northern MA!

Orrrrrr maybe not. Starts really turning hard toward the end of its run. If it went out further it might have actually come really, really, REALLY close.