Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Page 5 of 35
Page 5 of 35 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 20 ... 35
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Woah baby! How come its so diff than 12km NAM, they do not take same tracks?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
@rb924119 wrote:UH OH CHECK OUT IT'S MOTION THROUGH 78!!!!
No Bueno for me!!!
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6851
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Annnnnnnd that's what I get for hoping. HOW IN THE BLUE HELL DOES THE SAME GOD DARN MODEL WITH A HIGHER RESOLUTION COME IN WITH A DIFFERENT AND WORSE SOLUTION??!!!! ughhhh
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
OH SNIKES _ NW MORE JESUS!!!


_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
I will say though that it's projected intensity honestly makes sense to me, given the conditions.



rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
We're in for a long week.
Grandparents return from Italy tomorrow. They're going to wish to go back by Sunday.
Grandparents return from Italy tomorrow. They're going to wish to go back by Sunday.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
I better be able to make it back to Binghamton Tuesday lol
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4247
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
area we'llill the rest of the area will see tropical storm warnings
frank 638- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2288
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Remember a weaker pressure storm teh HP/Block has a bigger influence on it for one - secondly a stronger storm can get further north into teh block.
Also the fast it gets out off the coast it can get ne more before the pull back to teh coast which could be disastrous - a bigger surge of water as it brings it back to the coast and stronger since it gets to deeper warm waters too.
Also the fast it gets out off the coast it can get ne more before the pull back to teh coast which could be disastrous - a bigger surge of water as it brings it back to the coast and stronger since it gets to deeper warm waters too.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
I am sorry my phone is acting up I meant when will the rest of the area will see tropical storm warnings
frank 638- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2288
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Good points mugs. RGEM is running-initialized at 997 mb and close to the right spot. As Scott would say; WE TRACK!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Slightly northwest of 12z through 12.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Boiling


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6851
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
THE HP is modelled at 1024 - anything around 990's or greater 980's can push up the gut on this - it won't get away or out from under this but it can push up against it - christ 50 -75 miles N or even NW is a world of difference with this storm as we are seeing modelled
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Just saw this posted on the other board.
Ominous final paragraph of Jack Beven's disco from NHC tonight:
The initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned baroclinic trough. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should decelerate and gradually turn more toward the north. The dynamical models agree that the surface center should make at least a partial cyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level low. After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS shows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system somewhat faster toward the east-northeast. The new forecast track shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may require some adjustment to the track in later advisories.
Ominous final paragraph of Jack Beven's disco from NHC tonight:
The initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned baroclinic trough. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should decelerate and gradually turn more toward the north. The dynamical models agree that the surface center should make at least a partial cyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level low. After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS shows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system somewhat faster toward the east-northeast. The new forecast track shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may require some adjustment to the track in later advisories.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Latent Heat to feed the beast Scott. Is he stacked vertically by yuo rmaps - other board met said yes he was stacked but no maps to verify. IF this is so then we can see intensification once he gets to teh open waters
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Through 18 it still has it just bopping around off of NC lol This model looks about as confused as I am lmfao
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
That's ridiculous.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Up the ante


_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12066
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
@rb924119 wrote:RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.
looks like rgem has 500mb vorticity a strung out mess.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6851
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Its amazing they have a 30-40% shot into northern MA!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Orrrrrr maybe not. Starts really turning hard toward the end of its run. If it went out further it might have actually come really, really, REALLY close.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Page 5 of 35 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 20 ... 35
Page 5 of 35
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|