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Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:20 pm


Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 6 Pmsl
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 6 850mb_sf
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 6 700mb_sf
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 6 500mb_sf
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 6 300mb_sf

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:21 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Orrrrrr maybe not. Starts really turning hard toward the end of its run. If it went out further it might have actually come really, really, REALLY close.

It looks to me so far the trend is to cutoff the 500mb Low off a little later.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:22 pm

Boys fading fast here - i fno posting from YT don't take offense - but make sure the 0Z are NW by 50 miles and a 980's storm for my morning wake up okay?
Sleep Laughing

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:23 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Orrrrrr maybe not. Starts really turning hard toward the end of its run. If it went out further it might have actually come really, really, REALLY close.

It looks to me so far the trend is to cutoff the 500mb Low off a little later.  
What would this mean for impacts? Its rocketing NE at 22mph.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:26 pm

Totally did not even realize WB had that ahaha Thanks!! So the reason that it looks that way is because it allows some of the remnant energy from the departing trough to escape before it can be fully captured. That upsets the delicate balance of power between the split trough and the energy of Hermine. That could be because it's at the end of it's run, because up through about 27 or 30 that H5 actually looks decent, as far as the interaction.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Orrrrrr maybe not. Starts really turning hard toward the end of its run. If it went out further it might have actually come really, really, REALLY close.

It looks to me so far the trend is to cutoff the 500mb Low off a little later.  
What would this mean for impacts? Its rocketing NE at 22mph.

RGEM looks like its still caught in the exiting trough. Never fully cuts off at 500mb. That's why it ends up so far east. If it kept going it looks like it would likely cutoff eventually but not before its too far away. Maybe it would come back with the approaching trough fom the west but prob not a huge deal. An outlier for now. I'm headed to bed. Can hang for the GFS

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 6 Rgem_511
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 6 Rgem_s10




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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:33 pm

GFS is rolling

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:34 pm

Maybe a tick northwest through 18? Marginal.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:36 pm

Northwest from 12z at 24 about 25 miles or so. Approximately same intensity.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:37 pm

Definitely northwest through 30 at H5. Uh oh

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:39 pm

Yes I am watching rb, its def west, wxbell of course not going as fast so, your posts will ruin it for me lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:41 pm

surface doesnt actually look west at all, if not a tick east? But as I have learned H5 is more telling.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:42 pm

Surface Low is def NW of 12z but east of 18z at hr 36.  a wash

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:43 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Surface Low is def NW of 12z but east of 18z at hr 36.  a wash
what do you mean by a wash?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Surface Low is def NW of 12z but east of 18z at hr 36.  a wash
 what do you mean by a wash?

Its kind of in he middle of the two so its kind of the avg of 12z and 18z regarding position through 36hrs. 42 hrs though it def kicks NW a little and its deepening

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:47 pm

oh ya its turning, had to stay up for the GFS huh lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:47 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Surface Low is def NW of 12z but east of 18z at hr 36.  a wash
 what do you mean by a wash?

Its kind of in he middle of the two so its kind of the avg of 12z and 18z regarding position through 36hrs.  42 hrs though it def kicks NW a little and its deepening
Yeah I compared its so slightly east at that time of the 18z, negligible.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:48 pm

To me it looks like its getting ready to pop off the coast sooner further south towards the southern end of the "cone" if you will, imo this means it will be back over open water and stregnthen sooner, but also be further to the east, may/probably will make some kind of retrograde/loop over open water but highly doubt second landfall or close pass to land, this would keep winds in most areas out of the northeast and fairly light, some far eastern regions and further northeast may experience that damgerous easterly fetch that leads to coastal flooding and erosion but imo it may not be here. I use non-positive words because this storm has waffled so much on guidance and my tropical knowledge is limited, but to me, the threat of excessive rainfall and strong winds, such as with Irene and Sandy, both with a landfalling center in NJ, will not occur with Hermine if she stays several hundred miles SE off the coast. Just my .02, in short, thinking not changed much from earlier, no inital tuck in =/= stronger effects here. Also from a weenie perspective (as in wanting action) concerned about current trajectory and center position.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:oh ya its turning, had to stay up for the GFS huh lol

Ha yeah one quick check before I turned off to find it already initialized

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:51 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:oh ya its turning, had to stay up for the GFS huh lol

Ha yeah one quick check before I turned off to find it already initialized

It dropped way south, is the 00z runs looking like a east trend? Not that tomorrow it couldnt go back west again grrr
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:oh ya its turning, had to stay up for the GFS huh lol

Ha yeah one quick check before I turned off to find it already initialized

It dropped way south, is the 00z runs looking like a east trend? Not that tomorrow it couldnt go back west again  grrr

Looks that way for now. S and E I prob shouldn't have waved my white flag just yet.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:56 pm

Hr 78 starting to get tugged N a bit at H5. Actually about the same as 12z and 18z with subtle differences only.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:59 pm

Sorry guys I accidentally unplugged my laptop ahaha I'll be back in a couple minutes kol

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:02 am

It starts to pull away Fridays at 12Z holy moly
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:02 am

hr 84-90,it didnt budge at all.
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