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Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:18 pm

Here in ny cuomo has ems activated.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:20 pm

@amugs wrote:Oh sht this is an ominious sign here peeps - look at the convection just fricking blowing up on the eastern flank over teh HOTLANTIC - crips this is bad - this bad boy gets over these waters and KABOOOM it will rapidly intensify. Going to be A LOT of hopping come 0Z jesus.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 Rbtop-animated
I'm excited this is intense model watching at its best. Ya that's a big convective blow up
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.
If that happened everyone from ct to VA would get crushed if it expands as big as some models show. I'm start lean toward getting mid to high end ts winds here innand around nyc and the ts watch says that's a moderate potential which was increased from earlier of 39 to 57mph. That's enough to put out a lot power and Def beach devastation. I'm thinking warnings go up after nws sees 00z model runs and things stay or move even more n or nw.

Okay the problem - NO ONE WILL BE UP TILL DAY LIGHT!!!
It is going to be bad and I have to say each year I have a cut an Oak tree down on my property - we get a hurricane - Floyd, Irene and Sandy.......................

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:22 pm

I think this is the least amount of lead time I've ever seen on a tropucal system and no one cares. Well some do like us but dang it just feels so odd that nothing is go on in nj especially.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:24 pm

so I guess Gov. Christie has not said anything yet....at least myself and my neighbors will be ready...(even though my husband right now is pooh poohing this...we will have everything done tom....)..
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:25 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.
If that happened everyone from ct to VA would get crushed if it expands as big as some models show. I'm start lean toward getting mid to high end ts winds here innand around nyc and the ts watch says that's a moderate potential which was increased from earlier of 39 to 57mph. That's enough to put out a lot power and Def beach devastation. I'm thinking warnings go up after nws sees 00z model runs and things stay or move even more n or nw.

Okay the problem - NO ONE WILL BE UP TILL DAY LIGHT!!!
It is going to be bad and I have to say each year I have a cut an Oak tree down on my property - we get a hurricane - Floyd, Irene and Sandy.......................
I meant to say in my post ts watch says moderate potential for 57 to 73 mph winds I think that's sustained and to prepare now!!now!!! Come on this is crazy. Morning will leave less than 36 to 48 hrs. No way people can evacuate the shores that quick.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:25 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I think this is the least amount of lead time I've ever seen on a tropucal system and no one cares. Well some do like us but dang it just feels so odd that nothing is go on in nj especially.

Yeah it's just a recipe for disaster. Hoping they make moves after the 00z suite tonight.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:26 pm

Usually Christie is on it b4 ny. Sheesh.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:27 pm

No talk in nj at all from governor or work and that's crazy. I saw police chief today too 1st work and not a peep. Not good and then everyone will act surprised
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:27 pm

Poster on another site saying we have pressures falling due to the convection blow up from buoy data - models may be underestimating - as they did this in the GOM by 15 or so mbs - the pressure which the strength of this. Euro was closet with winds and it was off by 15-20 mph - yeah no sht!!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:27 pm

BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis Very Happy Very Happy although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:28 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I think this is the least amount of lead time I've ever seen on a tropucal system and no one cares. Well some do like us but dang it just feels so odd that nothing is go on in nj especially.

Yeah it's just a recipe for disaster. Hoping they make moves after the 00z suite tonight.
it's still go b chaos and evendors if where I am inland enough and get warnings for 60 plus mph winds the stores go b nuts roads congested I can only imagine evacs.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:28 pm

Drop in pressure ready to go loko in a bit

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 Sfc_con_3pres

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:29 pm

@rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis Very Happy Very Happy  although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:30 pm

@amugs wrote:Poster on another site saying we have pressures falling due to the convection blow up from buoy data - models may be underestimating - as they did this in the GOM by 15 or so mbs - the pressure which the strength of this. Euro was closet with winds and it was off by 15-20 mph - yeah no sht!!!

They are. The question will be how much of an effect that has on the track of the surface low......

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:30 pm

@amugs wrote:Drop in pressure ready to go loko in a bit

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 Sfc_con_3pres
I'm go b a weather zombie by time it gets here and watch I'm too tired to watch lol. It's going to blaze up. I'm with u mugs.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:31 pm

HOTLANTIC BABY - FEeD THE BEAST!!

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 Natlanti.c.thumb.gif.0b7327ca9feffecb1ded7d4a50fb6ba5

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Post by snow247 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:31 pm

About to enter water again.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:31 pm

Where is Frank's blog?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:32 pm

@amugs wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis Very Happy Very Happy  although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast  - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!

you need a green tea latte..that will wake you up!! that stuff it potent!! did you start school yet or on Tues
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:32 pm

@amugs wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis Very Happy Very Happy  although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast  - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!

I can't make any promises, though mugs; today's runs nearly put me over the edge. If tonight's head in the same direction I'm finding the nearest liquor store and treating myself to some top-shelf stuff. I can't take it anymore lol

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Post by snow247 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:33 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 WUNIDS_map.gif.24e6bfc157536028439e79c183ed179d
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 Rbtop-animated.gif.f4d6e67cd73c6cfdc46da1996b21e927
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:33 pm

He is making a gr8 one I'm sure it will.b up. Does anyone have a thpught when Upton may pull warning trigger?
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:33 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is Frank's blog?

He said at 8:51 PM it would be up in 15 minutes. It has been over 40 minutes since that post. Maybe something happened. Regardless, it should be an interesting read once it gets uploaded.

Also to the admins and moderators, I think once Frank uploads his blog, you should lock this thread and make that the new thread.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:36 pm

@snow247 wrote:Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 WUNIDS_map.gif.24e6bfc157536028439e79c183ed179d
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 2 Rbtop-animated.gif.f4d6e67cd73c6cfdc46da1996b21e927

wow..they are getting some heavy rain..I have friends that live right near Morehead City NC...my parents are moving down there next year...to live on water...
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