Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.

If that happened everyone from ct to VA would get crushed if it expands as big as some models show. I'm start lean toward getting mid to high end ts winds here innand around nyc and the ts watch says that's a moderate potential which was increased from earlier of 39 to 57mph. That's enough to put out a lot power and Def beach devastation. I'm thinking warnings go up after nws sees 00z model runs and things stay or move even more n or nw.

Oh sht this is an ominious sign here peeps - look at the convection just fricking blowing up on the eastern flank over teh HOTLANTIC - crips this is bad - this bad boy gets over these waters and KABOOOM it will rapidly intensify. Going to be A LOT of hopping come 0Z jesus.

Here in ny cuomo has ems activated.

amugs wrote:Oh sht this is an ominious sign here peeps - look at the convection just fricking blowing up on the eastern flank over teh HOTLANTIC - crips this is bad - this bad boy gets over these waters and KABOOOM it will rapidly intensify. Going to be A LOT of hopping come 0Z jesus.

I'm excited this is intense model watching at its best. Ya that's a big convective blow up

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.

If that happened everyone from ct to VA would get crushed if it expands as big as some models show. I'm start lean toward getting mid to high end ts winds here innand around nyc and the ts watch says that's a moderate potential which was increased from earlier of 39 to 57mph. That's enough to put out a lot power and Def beach devastation. I'm thinking warnings go up after nws sees 00z model runs and things stay or move even more n or nw.

Okay the problem - NO ONE WILL BE UP TILL DAY LIGHT!!!
It is going to be bad and I have to say each year I have a cut an Oak tree down on my property - we get a hurricane - Floyd, Irene and Sandy.......................

I think this is the least amount of lead time I've ever seen on a tropucal system and no one cares. Well some do like us but dang it just feels so odd that nothing is go on in nj especially.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.

If that happened everyone from ct to VA would get crushed if it expands as big as some models show. I'm start lean toward getting mid to high end ts winds here innand around nyc and the ts watch says that's a moderate potential which was increased from earlier of 39 to 57mph. That's enough to put out a lot power and Def beach devastation. I'm thinking warnings go up after nws sees 00z model runs and things stay or move even more n or nw.

Okay the problem - NO ONE WILL BE UP TILL DAY LIGHT!!!
It is going to be bad and I have to say each year I have a cut an Oak tree down on my property - we get a hurricane - Floyd, Irene and Sandy.......................

I meant to say in my post ts watch says moderate potential for 57 to 73 mph winds I think that's sustained and to prepare now!!now!!! Come on this is crazy. Morning will leave less than 36 to 48 hrs. No way people can evacuate the shores that quick.

jmanley32 wrote:I think this is the least amount of lead time I've ever seen on a tropucal system and no one cares. Well some do like us but dang it just feels so odd that nothing is go on in nj especially.

Yeah it's just a recipe for disaster. Hoping they make moves after the 00z suite tonight.

Usually Christie is on it b4 ny. Sheesh.

No talk in nj at all from governor or work and that's crazy. I saw police chief today too 1st work and not a peep. Not good and then everyone will act surprised

Poster on another site saying we have pressures falling due to the convection blow up from buoy data - models may be underestimating - as they did this in the GOM by 15 or so mbs - the pressure which the strength of this. Euro was closet with winds and it was off by 15-20 mph - yeah no sht!!!

BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I think this is the least amount of lead time I've ever seen on a tropucal system and no one cares. Well some do like us but dang it just feels so odd that nothing is go on in nj especially.

Yeah it's just a recipe for disaster. Hoping they make moves after the 00z suite tonight.

it's still go b chaos and evendors if where I am inland enough and get warnings for 60 plus mph winds the stores go b nuts roads congested I can only imagine evacs.

Drop in pressure ready to go loko in a bit

rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis  although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!

amugs wrote:Poster on another site saying we have pressures falling due to the convection blow up from buoy data - models may be underestimating - as they did this in the GOM by 15 or so mbs - the pressure which the strength of this. Euro was closet with winds and it was off by 15-20 mph - yeah no sht!!!

They are. The question will be how much of an effect that has on the track of the surface low......

amugs wrote:Drop in pressure ready to go loko in a bit

I'm go b a weather zombie by time it gets here and watch I'm too tired to watch lol. It's going to blaze up. I'm with u mugs.

HOTLANTIC BABY - FEeD THE BEAST!!

About to enter water again.

Where is Frank's blog?

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis  although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast  - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!

I can't make any promises, though mugs; today's runs nearly put me over the edge. If tonight's head in the same direction I'm finding the nearest liquor store and treating myself to some top-shelf stuff. I can't take it anymore lol

He is making a gr8 one I'm sure it will.b up. Does anyone have a thpught when Upton may pull warning trigger?

skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is Frank's blog?

He said at 8:51 PM it would be up in 15 minutes. It has been over 40 minutes since that post. Maybe something happened. Regardless, it should be an interesting read once it gets uploaded.

Also to the admins and moderators, I think once Frank uploads his blog, you should lock this thread and make that the new thread.