Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Euro went east but then came way west close to li north of earlier. Models got no clue. This run puts very strong winds all along jersey to ct and to and inland some.

rb924119 wrote:Way east!! WOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Only problem is this complicates things. Imagine that. We have the NAM, CMC, RGEM, GDFL all west, GFS, UKMET and HWRF held serve, and now the EURO is east. I can't anymore. I just can't lol

rb wait u must b out far enough comes wayyyyy back west.

aiannone wrote:"Being prepared before an event happens is probably the most important thing you can do," Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said. "We don't have enough information to warrant a suggestion that people don't go to Fire Island for the weekend. We want people to enjoy the Labor Day weekend."

MIND BLOWN!

That is a BIG, potentially fatal, misjudgment on their part.

SoulSingMG wrote:

aiannone wrote:"Being prepared before an event happens is probably the most important thing you can do," Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said. "We don't have enough information to warrant a suggestion that people don't go to Fire Island for the weekend. We want people to enjoy the Labor Day weekend."

MIND BLOWN!

That is a BIG, potentially fatal, misjudgment on their part.

that's rediculous. No one even govt not take this with any concern. Watch it go well west as models still not in full agreement and it's too late. I'm thinking ny calls soe sometime today or tomorrow.

Anyone have good link to hermine infrared? Wanna see if any convection starting.

It does come back, but not as much as 00z.

rb924119 wrote:It does come back, but not as much as 00z.

High res models are all west it seems. And now is the timeframe when they're in their wheelhouse??

The consensus now is for a six to eight hour period Early Monday morning for tropical storm-force gusts especially near the coast. This should leave us with minor to moderate damage due to the winds. Extensive beach erosion and coastal flooding will be what this storm is remembered for besides the longest tracking storm ever

These models are all over the place. I give up. From here on out I'll follow the storm via satellite and radar.

Anything is still on the table no agreement yet

The Euro actually has no sustained tropical storm-force winds only tropical storm-force gusts early Monday morning. It has the storm 5 to 10 MB weaker than last night and yesterday's runs

From the 2:00 p.m. NHC Discussion:
"P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical
cyclone. The wind field of post tropical Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge model and as a result, recent Flooding Graphics have understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward."

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It does come back, but not as much as 00z.

High res models are all west it seems. And now is the timeframe when they're in their wheelhouse??

I would give it until the 00z's to say that, but honestly, with how this has been I almost would say nothing is going to be in it's wheelhouse lol

I say anything on the table, euro and gfs favor more east tracks overall.

Hermine is go exceed 75mph. 2pm was upped to 70mph 995mb. It's also now headed due east hmm. Full update 5pm. Until nhc says othwise I'm go by them cuz models are just crap. Was it forecast to move east at this time?

12Z RGEM and 12 ECMWF at hr 48 side by side:

Math23x7 wrote:12Z RGEM and 12 ECMWF at hr 48 side by side:

wow RGEM well west. This is really get b rediculous.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I say anything on the table, euro and gfs favor more east tracks overall.

Yes we can't let our guard down but it's almost certain the worst of the storm would be for midnight through noon Monday. As far as the winds go it doesn't look like it's going to be a long-duration event

Wow RGEM has 900hpa winds sustained to 50 plus mph nyc and 60 to 70 pluson coast li and nj. Big diff. From othwr models. These winds closer to surface and easier to come down. Bout 980mb too.

algae888 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I say anything on the table, euro and gfs favor more east tracks overall.

Yes we can't let our guard down but it's almost certain the worst of the storm would be for midnight through noon Monday. As far as the winds go it doesn't look like it's going to be a long-duration event

that's Def not what Franks forecast says.

GEFS are west. Some individual members make landfall!

N

I am at a bbcue, this is a true headache tjis forecast, just look at satellie and water vapor imigary.

Having a few pops and food

aiannone wrote:"Being prepared before an event happens is probably the most important thing you can do," Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said. "We don't have enough information to warrant a suggestion that people don't go to Fire Island for the weekend. We want people to enjoy the Labor Day weekend."

MIND BLOWN!

Unreal I cannot even imagine the amount of money that may be spent rescuing people off Fire Island, Just got back from work and reading many pages. People are not taking this storm as seriously as they should.

amugs wrote:N

West lean, much? lol

Guys 25 miles sw from nyc how high would winds be ? Are we expecting anything this way ? Livingston nj