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Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:35 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:It is EERILY quiet on here lol

everyone either BBQ or getting ready!! ..we are all done..
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:36 pm

rb any thoughts on 12z runs, which ones are most likely, I do not recall any of them being in agreement.
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Post by Dtone Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:38 pm

Im at sandy hook, impressive wave action. Building steadily.
a little less beach than usual.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:43 pm

@Dtone wrote:Im at sandy hook, impressive wave action. Building steadily.
a little less beach than usual.

we were down in Atlantic Highlands before and the Bay was calm...lol...I wanted to drive to the Hook..but we had other things to do...maybe tom morning..that is only 15 minutes from here..safe travels the rest of the way home!!
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:46 pm

18z GFS IS NORTHWEST from 12z...no maps to post yet
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Post by Dtone Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:48 pm

The bay side is still calm. There are clearing all items off the beach now. They been letting ppl go ankle deep unoffically but now its zero tolarance. Wind and waves really building last 30 min .

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Post by lisalamb Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:50 pm

When will the storm surge become a concern? I'm in North Wildwood and I'm trying to figure out if I should leave tonight or tomorrow morning.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:51 pm

@lisalamb wrote:When will the storm surge become a concern? I'm in North Wildwood and I'm trying to figure out if I should leave tonight or tomorrow morning.

You're fine tonight but I'd head out in the morning if I were you.
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:51 pm

Wow, two different worlds. We made the call to leave Sea Isle this afternoon. The rain and wind we could deal with, but the concern was the street flooding from the storm surge and the prolonged nature if the storm is stalled for a couple days. Sea Isle is notorious for flooding during big coastal storms, and we didn't want to lose our cars to water damage. When we left at 3 p.m. it was cloudy with strong gusty winds whipping through and people were starting to prepare for possible flooding this evening with a steady line of traffic leaving the island. About 10-15 miles off the island the sun came out and I noticed the winds weren't too strong. I've just arrived back home to sunny skies with virtually no wind. It is no wonder that many people in the state aren't making a big deal of this as it seems most of the state has had nothing but sunny calm weather today. Hard to believe how sharp the cutoff is from really threatening weather at the coast to pleasant calm weather just several miles inland.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:52 pm

18z nam was west and north at certin points, but also east at the beginning.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:57 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:18z GFS IS NORTHWEST from 12z...no maps to post yet
GFS way too weak, winds would be much stronger as forcasted, initialized at 1002, its at 997.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:03 pm

Well North and west of 12z, oh boy are we go do the trend back that way now? Weaker than 12z but IMO the intensity is off bc it initialized wrong and I think the models are not grasping how strong this could get.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 20 18z_hr10
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:18 pm

Ok, according to the 18z analysis of H5 on ewall it is closed off. The only models to show this at this time were the EURO and GFS, as well as several of the SREF members. The actual location, however, is centered west of the EURO and GFS 12z operational runs, which suggests that while they do correctly have the closed low, they are approximately 50 miles too far north and east with it. So, that suggests that the low will track further west. BUT, has H5 really closed off, and is a further west track plausible? After carefully considering the visible satellite imagery, it appears to me that Hermine has now made a definitive turn toward the northeast. I know that it was moving east before, but this eastward component seems to be decreasing, as expected. After also considering recent pressure tendencies off the Mid-Atlantic coast, they also seem to suggest that Hermine has stopped moving completely eastward and is now making a gradual turn to the northeast, as pressures are rapidly rising over the northern Outer Banks and although to a lesser degree, out over the open waters of the Atlantic where Hermine appeared to be headed earlier in the day. Those two observations, both separately and combined support the analysis at H5.

Once H5 closes off, theoretically it should begin to exert a westward force on Hermine's lower-level circulation. Thinking of this in terms of vectors, and considering that the H5 closed low is slightly northwest of the lower-level circulation, this should exert a northwesterly force on the lower-level circulation. Based on an easterly heading, that should make Hermine turn to the northeast, which we are seeing currently. So that appears, at least at this time, to solidify the assumption that H5 is in fact closed. Could it reopen? Absolutely, and I think that is where the uncertainty in the models lie. If it should open up, especially for an extended period of time, then the westward tug of it will be less of an influence on the lower-level circulation because of dynamics. When I look at the analysis, to me it looks like the shear vorticity from the departing trough is beginning to draw the vorticity associated with Hermine towards it because of a large PV gradient. With that happening, and the western lobe of the shear vorticity from the trough taking a west-southwestward turn, this signals that these two masses of energy will begin to rotate about each other around a central axis until they completely merge into a mature mid-level cyclone. Where that center pivot point is, determines where the lower-level circulation will end up. That location, from what I can tell, appears to be somewhere in the range of about 80-140 miles east-southeast of Cape May. With the current wind field, that brings TS force winds into much of New Jersey, with the 50 kt sustained field into or close to the coast, depending on whether it expands. I cannot say with 100% confidence that this is what will happen, heck; I don't think anyone can. But that's what I'm seeing.

NOTE: 60 miles is approximately 1 degree of longitude at our latitude, so my thinking is still that Hermine ends up somewhere between 73 and 74W

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Post by track17 Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:05 pm

Shocked how quiet it is on here

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:20 pm

18z HWRF came in north and east of 12z.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:24 pm

GFDL is slighty northeast as well

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Post by Math23x7 Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:31 pm

@track17 wrote:Shocked how quiet it is on here

This is what it sounds like:



That by the way was how members from the old 7-online weather chat board would reply to any of Schmaltzie's posts about how a mild winter would be coming.

Anyway, looking at new information, it's interesting how the roles have reversed between the short range models and the global models, especially the EURO model. Even if today's 12Z run of the EURO were to verify, there would still be winds gusts exceeding 60 mph on the eastern end of LI. I know some people who have a summer house out in Montauk and they said they plan on riding out the storm. I told them that if that's what they'll do to make sure they have the necessary supplies in the event that the power goes out.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:39 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Ok, according to the 18z analysis of H5 on ewall it is closed off. The only models to show this at this time were the EURO and GFS, as well as several of the SREF members. The actual location, however, is centered west of the EURO and GFS 12z operational runs, which suggests that while they do correctly have the closed low, they are approximately 50 miles too far north and east with it. So, that suggests that the low will track further west. BUT, has H5 really closed off, and is a further west track plausible? After carefully considering the visible satellite imagery, it appears to me that Hermine has now made a definitive turn toward the northeast. I know that it was moving east before, but this eastward component seems to be decreasing, as expected. After also considering recent pressure tendencies off the Mid-Atlantic coast, they also seem to suggest that Hermine has stopped moving completely eastward and is now making a gradual turn to the northeast, as pressures are rapidly rising over the northern Outer Banks and although to a lesser degree, out over the open waters of the Atlantic where Hermine appeared to be headed earlier in the day. Those two observations, both separately and combined support the analysis at H5.

Once H5 closes off, theoretically it should begin to exert a westward force on Hermine's lower-level circulation. Thinking of this in terms of vectors, and considering that the H5 closed low is slightly northwest of the lower-level circulation, this should exert a northwesterly force on the lower-level circulation. Based on an easterly heading, that should make Hermine turn to the northeast, which we are seeing currently. So that appears, at least at this time, to solidify the assumption that H5 is in fact closed. Could it reopen? Absolutely, and I think that is where the uncertainty in the models lie. If it should open up, especially for an extended period of time, then the westward tug of it will be less of an influence on the lower-level circulation because of dynamics. When I look at the analysis, to me it looks like the shear vorticity from the departing trough is beginning to draw the vorticity associated with Hermine towards it because of a large PV gradient. With that happening, and the western lobe of the shear vorticity from the trough taking a west-southwestward turn, this signals that these two masses of energy will begin to rotate about each other around a central axis until they completely merge into a mature mid-level cyclone. Where that center pivot point is, determines where the lower-level circulation will end up. That location, from what I can tell, appears to be somewhere in the range of about 80-140 miles east-southeast of Cape May. With the current wind field, that brings TS force winds into much of New Jersey, with the 50 kt sustained field into or close to the coast, depending on whether it expands. I cannot say with 100% confidence that this is what will happen, heck; I don't think anyone can. But that's what I'm seeing.

NOTE: 60 miles is approximately 1 degree of longitude at our latitude, so my thinking is still that Hermine ends up somewhere between 73 and 74W

Awesome analysis!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:54 pm

JB standing pat on that it will loop somewhere off the nj coast between ACY and Del beaches north. Said that he thinks the latest euro run is out to lunch on current observations to far east. Still feels a 5-8' surhe and hcane gusts with trop winds for entire nj coastline.

Rb awesome analysis and write up.

We r all tired and taking a break. This storm has been intriguing and yet a headache.

I say this and you can hate ne fir it those of you along the coast it ain't over by any stretch, this hcane season may go into the record books for the mid atlantic coast. We have a huge Bermuda High that will last through Oct and an active tropic region with a few more possibilities in the next couple weeks from all regions- carribean, gom, MDR and western atlantic.

People have to remember that today would not be a big deal it all starts for the shoreline tomorrow.morning through Tuesday, wed.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:06 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Ok, according to the 18z analysis of H5 on ewall it is closed off. The only models to show this at this time were the EURO and GFS, as well as several of the SREF members. The actual location, however, is centered west of the EURO and GFS 12z operational runs, which suggests that while they do correctly have the closed low, they are approximately 50 miles too far north and east with it. So, that suggests that the low will track further west. BUT, has H5 really closed off, and is a further west track plausible? After carefully considering the visible satellite imagery, it appears to me that Hermine has now made a definitive turn toward the northeast. I know that it was moving east before, but this eastward component seems to be decreasing, as expected. After also considering recent pressure tendencies off the Mid-Atlantic coast, they also seem to suggest that Hermine has stopped moving completely eastward and is now making a gradual turn to the northeast, as pressures are rapidly rising over the northern Outer Banks and although to a lesser degree, out over the open waters of the Atlantic where Hermine appeared to be headed earlier in the day. Those two observations, both separately and combined support the analysis at H5.

Once H5 closes off, theoretically it should begin to exert a westward force on Hermine's lower-level circulation. Thinking of this in terms of vectors, and considering that the H5 closed low is slightly northwest of the lower-level circulation, this should exert a northwesterly force on the lower-level circulation. Based on an easterly heading, that should make Hermine turn to the northeast, which we are seeing currently. So that appears, at least at this time, to solidify the assumption that H5 is in fact closed. Could it reopen? Absolutely, and I think that is where the uncertainty in the models lie. If it should open up, especially for an extended period of time, then the westward tug of it will be less of an influence on the lower-level circulation because of dynamics. When I look at the analysis, to me it looks like the shear vorticity from the departing trough is beginning to draw the vorticity associated with Hermine towards it because of a large PV gradient. With that happening, and the western lobe of the shear vorticity from the trough taking a west-southwestward turn, this signals that these two masses of energy will begin to rotate about each other around a central axis until they completely merge into a mature mid-level cyclone. Where that center pivot point is, determines where the lower-level circulation will end up. That location, from what I can tell, appears to be somewhere in the range of about 80-140 miles east-southeast of Cape May. With the current wind field, that brings TS force winds into much of New Jersey, with the 50 kt sustained field into or close to the coast, depending on whether it expands. I cannot say with 100% confidence that this is what will happen, heck; I don't think anyone can. But that's what I'm seeing.

NOTE: 60 miles is approximately 1 degree of longitude at our latitude, so my thinking is still that Hermine ends up somewhere between 73 and 74W

Thanks for a great write up!! and all your hard work
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:09 pm

NHC's 8PM ADVISORY

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 20 Image14
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:10 pm

@amugs wrote:JB standing pat on that it will loop somewhere off the nj coast between ACY and Del beaches north. Said that he thinks the latest euro run is out to lunch on current observations to far east. Still feels a 5-8' surhe and hcane gusts with trop winds for entire nj coastline.

Rb awesome analysis and write up.

We r all tired and taking a break. This storm has been intriguing and yet a headache.

I say this and you can hate ne fir it those of you along the coast it ain't over by any stretch, this hcane season may go into the record books for the mid atlantic coast. We have a huge Bermuda High that will last through Oct and an active tropic region with a few more possibilities in the next couple weeks from all regions- carribean, gom, MDR and western atlantic.

People have to remember that today would not be a big deal it all starts for the shoreline tomorrow.morning through Tuesday, wed.

Thanks Mugs..I for one never take any type of storm for granted...we are as ready today as I was for Sandy..have my routine all down..(my husband rolls his eyes..but he wanted for nothing during those 13 days of no power..except for gasoline...that was the one thing and this time we took care of that, we got a converter kit from gasoline to natural gas for the generator..)...I hope that everyone stays safe and there is not too many surprises with this storm!!
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Post by Cyanide02Z06 Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:11 pm

Anyone have a link for good storm surge/tide charts?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:37 pm

@Cyanide02Z06 wrote:Anyone have a link for good storm surge/tide charts?

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=NE&plot=srg&loop=1#contents

http://www.surfline.com/surf-forecasts/mid-atlantic/new-jersey_2147/

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:39 pm

Does not look like much has changed since this morning.

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