Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is Frank's blog?
Just posted.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
@rb924119 wrote:@amugs wrote:@rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis![]()
although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha
Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!
I can't make any promises, though mugs; today's runs nearly put me over the edge. If tonight's head in the same direction I'm finding the nearest liquor store and treating myself to some top-shelf stuff. I can't take it anymore lol
A bottle of Gin and deuce baby - get ready things will start to be rollin in a few
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Oh jeeze 00z NAM, is a hair west as it exits into the ocean!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
A bit west and slower so far.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Very ominous forecast by Frank. I was warning people at work today and they were looking at me as if I were crazy. I told one co-worker who was going down to the jersey shore that the shore will get crushed. She looked at me like I am going anyway and don't care.
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
@snow247 wrote:A bit west and slower so far.
H5 is 50 miles west compared to 12z. I don't like this.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
If its 50 miles west up here thats all we need to get those 70+ mile winds well inland, that would be bad. I would however be at the beach flying a kite, jk
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Hr 24, a bit slower, and weaker but more tucked.


jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Also looks like there may be slightly less interaction than 12z, through 27, which might allow a slightly further north track as well. We shall see; I don't know for sure.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Hr 27 its south of the 18z, not sure what this will mean for the rest of the run being how its go jump all over.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Jumps east at hour 27..
NAM has no clue.
NAM has no clue.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
This is either going to swing way east and come way the heck west, or miss. I don't even know.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
That would be crazy if its a whole new solution and a miss, at hr 33 kinda looks like its turning around. I dunno either.@rb924119 wrote:This is either going to swing way east and come way the heck west, or miss. I don't even know.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
21Z SREFs are further north but further east. OMG JUST FIGURE IT OUT ALREADY!!!!!
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Nam intislized at 1001mb it's already stronger than that!
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Ahhhh here comes the westward shift at 39......how far can it get???
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Forget the NAM jesus it cant even get the MB right on initialization - we are sooo pathetic with this model - let see where it goes......
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
@amugs wrote:Forget the NAM jesus it cant even get the MB right on initialization - we are sooo pathetic with this model - let see where it goes......
Unfortunately neither can most models so far lol
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Full NHC update coming in soon, guessing its west and the wind chances shift west to put area in a high chance.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
NAM looks like its continuing NE at hr 42. rb you said its turning?
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
So far no rain for the area even close...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
H5 is. I haven't been paying attention to the surface. I have a feeling models may try to chase the convection early on, hence the east shift on this run. Idk, just a hunch.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Ok hr 51 is turned, lets see!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
Heard that b4, and we are still not in gr8 range of the NAM.@rb924119 wrote:H5 is. I haven't been paying attention to the surface. I have a feeling models may try to chase the convection early on, hence the east shift on this run. Idk, just a hunch.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2
H5 shows the center of the storm gest east then makes the turn west NW towards the coast at hr 45 but does so by the Delmarva
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