Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is Frank's blog?

Just posted.

@rb924119 wrote:

@amugs wrote:

@rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis  although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast  - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!

I can't make any promises, though mugs; today's runs nearly put me over the edge. If tonight's head in the same direction I'm finding the nearest liquor store and treating myself to some top-shelf stuff. I can't take it anymore lol

A bottle of Gin and deuce baby - get ready things will start to be rollin in a few

Oh jeeze 00z NAM, is a hair west as it exits into the ocean!

A bit west and slower so far.

Very ominous forecast by Frank. I was warning people at work today and they were looking at me as if I were crazy. I told one co-worker who was going down to the jersey shore that the shore will get crushed. She looked at me like I am going anyway and don't care.

@snow247 wrote:A bit west and slower so far.

H5 is 50 miles west compared to 12z. I don't like this.

If its 50 miles west up here thats all we need to get those 70+ mile winds well inland, that would be bad. I would however be at the beach flying a kite, jk

Hr 24, a bit slower, and weaker but more tucked.

Also looks like there may be slightly less interaction than 12z, through 27, which might allow a slightly further north track as well. We shall see; I don't know for sure.

Hr 27 its south of the 18z, not sure what this will mean for the rest of the run being how its go jump all over.

Jumps east at hour 27..

NAM has no clue.

This is either going to swing way east and come way the heck west, or miss. I don't even know.

@rb924119 wrote:This is either going to swing way east and come way the heck west, or miss. I don't even know.

That would be crazy if its a whole new solution and a miss, at hr 33 kinda looks like its turning around. I dunno either.

21Z SREFs are further north but further east. OMG JUST FIGURE IT OUT ALREADY!!!!!

Nam intislized at 1001mb it's already stronger than that!

Ahhhh here comes the westward shift at 39......how far can it get???

Forget the NAM jesus it cant even get the MB right on initialization - we are sooo pathetic with this model - let see where it goes......

@amugs wrote:Forget the NAM jesus it cant even get the MB right on initialization - we are sooo pathetic with this model - let see where it goes......

Unfortunately neither can most models so far lol

Full NHC update coming in soon, guessing its west and the wind chances shift west to put area in a high chance.

NAM looks like its continuing NE at hr 42. rb you said its turning?

So far no rain for the area even close...

H5 is. I haven't been paying attention to the surface. I have a feeling models may try to chase the convection early on, hence the east shift on this run. Idk, just a hunch.

Ok hr 51 is turned, lets see!

@rb924119 wrote:H5 is. I haven't been paying attention to the surface. I have a feeling models may try to chase the convection early on, hence the east shift on this run. Idk, just a hunch.

Heard that b4, and we are still not in gr8 range of the NAM.

H5 shows the center of the storm gest east then makes the turn west NW towards the coast at hr 45 but does so by the Delmarva