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Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Post by Vinnydula Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:50 pm

Starting to get hit hard on the cape
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:14 pm

Hermine now wnw per entags for wind increased west. Getting quite breezy here enough to make street signs wave. Winds well inot cape ma and ri.
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Post by frank 638 Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:18 pm

what is spin the rain make it into NYC I know some parts of Long Island will see some showers out of it but I am hoping for something because it's so dry out

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:12 pm

My parents who are in eastern new haven county, CT just had a large tree branch come down that blocks the whole road, it has since been pushed to the side but they must be gusting pretty good cuz they are at least 5 miles inland from the sound.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 32 Img_0610
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:45 pm

Some pretty intensie convection wrapping around the center, very high tops. Wonder if its trying to intensify, I know I am the only one still watching Hermine but until that track back to east turns she will continue to slowly head back this way, more west than north.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:50 pm

Jman can you show a satellite picture
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Post by rb924119 Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:52 pm

No, you're not lol I'm still quietly watching and waiting myself lmao I can vouch for mugs saying that the beach replenishment has been wiped out. My parents are actually down on LBI and they have been sending me pictures. It's not good. I can't upload them today, but tomorrow after work I should be able to. I'll say this, though; if we have another storm like this, even a good winter storm, if the beaches aren't fixed from what they are like now, that island will be destroyed. Literally the only thing separating the ocean from Barnegat Bay is the dune. There is no more beach. Pretty scary and amazing.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:55 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/html5-vis-short.html
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:57 pm

rb is it just me or does hermine look like shes trying to actually wrap up, lots of convection firing to N & W and actually looks to be getting sucked into the center.  I also noted its WNW now, I know shes slow so it would take very long time to get near to give us sustained winds but if she gets stronger might she get closer? Do models matter anymore or is this all a nowcast?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:12 pm

I will say I'm point pleasant beach they seem to be ok just rough surf nothing more
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Post by rb924119 Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:14 pm

I think it is trying to wrap up, but I also think it really appears that way because H5 is closed, so a lot of the high and mid-level clouds are following that circulation, adding to the visual effect of the lower level circulation. It's easy for things like that to really appear more intense than they are. But I do think it is, and that it's slowly trying to transition back towards a tropical, or more tropical, entity. I think it still could come close enough for some impacts, but the sooner it does so the better. This system will slowly weaken, so time is of the essence when it comes to that. As for models, sure, still follow, because they can still provide insight, but it's pretty much a now-cast in my opinion.

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:47 pm

This is nuts IMO.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 32 Windprob.thumb.gif.ba24706ec26be0a50624ccb08e5aee89


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Post by Vinnydula Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:52 pm

Wish I can send you guys a picture of what it looks like here on the Cape. I came up here for a week to camp unfortunately I had to get a room tonight. It just isn't safe to be tent camping in this
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:53 pm

@Vinnydula wrote:Wish I can send you guys a picture of what it looks like here on the Cape. I came up here for a week to camp unfortunately I had to get a room tonight. It just isn't safe to be tent camping in this
Oh right, ur out there, its prolly go get worse than better, could be a few days, sorry it coincided with your trip.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:55 pm

@amugs wrote:This is nuts IMO.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 32 Windprob.thumb.gif.ba24706ec26be0a50624ccb08e5aee89

Its go be further west at 11pm watch NYC will be back in 50-60% plus, but the circle is funny, I have never seen the wind chance area a complete circle especially encompassing such a huge area.
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Post by track17 Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:56 pm

The jersey shore should still see nothing right?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:57 pm

Centra CT is already getting gusts to or over TS force as I showed you some tree damage, thats actually a very large branch, its the size of a small tree.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:01 pm

as of 8pm (which isnt a full advisory, no updated graphics or cone until 11pm) but it is maintaining at 70mph, 997mb but has sped up to 9 mph WNW. I would thought it be more N than west but if we keep this track for at least 12 hrs it will traverse about 100 miles towards us which will be enough to bring impacts to the area, the windfield as I said is nearly 200+ miles around and the highest winds are to the North and NW.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:05 pm

This is the oddest cone I have ever seen, so this could basically go anywhere, SE NW NE N S lol

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 32 5pm_co11
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Post by rb924119 Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:14 pm

Pretty sure we have a better idea of where this thing is going and what it's gonna do than they do Ahahaha that's hilarious.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:32 pm

I can report it is quite gusty out by me right now. I don't have a number though. Ray maybe you can answer me this. I have been thinking about how the east soln despite the models trying to tuck it in tight towards the coast. I'm wondering if the momentum or inertia of the system on its NE track off the NC Coast due to the departing trough was the reason models had such a tough time with it. I mean you have this positive tilted trough lifting up and out and initially at least dragging Hermine in its wake. I believe as she approached NC/SC she was moving at 20-25mph. I mean one could argue that there simply was too much forward momentum created for it to simply cutoff from the departing trough a stop on a dime in tight like was modeled. I mean it did cutoff like was modeled and is now being pulled west under the mid level low also like was modeled. Man as I'm writing this the gusts are getting much heavier and more sustained.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:48 pm

So close yet so far hoping to see some wind, it was gusty earlier but I do not think it had anything to do with hermine, you are about 75 tops miles away from me driving, so birds eye i'd say maybe 60 miles, your almost due south of where my parents are in CT so they prolly have similar as you saw they had some damage already.
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Post by Radz Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:00 pm

Lee's take on Hermine: https://www.facebook.com/leegoldbergABC7/videos/vb.311624215690792/549151115271433/?type=2&theater¬if_t=live_video¬if_id=1473121948671332
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Post by Radz Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:17 pm

Gusts up to 59mph on Nantucket and nearby areas:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:32 pm

@Radz wrote:Lee's take on Hermine: https://www.facebook.com/leegoldbergABC7/videos/vb.311624215690792/549151115271433/?type=2&theater¬if_t=live_video¬if_id=1473121948671332


was just going to post this video..just watch...interesting...
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