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Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:44 am

Its current pressure is 996mb NJ, not 1000mb yet.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:45 am

Hermine wasted the pattern, if it would have gone out to sea completely things could have moved along quicker and 92L could have had a chance. Happens just like winter.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:47 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hermine wasted the pattern, if it would have gone out to sea completely things could have moved along quicker and 92L could have had a chance. Happens just like winter.
Good point, all eyes to 93L now, however looks to get to a high latitude which probably means another Gaston like track, this should really be in the regular tropics discussion though prolly.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:47 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Its current pressure is 996mb NJ, not 1000mb yet.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:49 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hermine wasted the pattern, if it would have gone out to sea completely things could have moved along quicker and 92L could have had a chance. Happens just like winter.
Good point, all eyes to 93L now, however looks to get to a high latitude which probably means another Gaston like track, this should really be in the regular tropics discussion though prolly.

Yes GFS develops it and throws it well out into the middle into the Atlantic, similar to Gaston like you said.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:51 am

Hermine is annoying already next
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:09 am

is anyone currently getting strong storm surge if anything at all?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:28 am

Oh wow nj weakened fast since 8am advisory wow.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:29 am

U sure 1008 is right in 2 hrs? From 996?
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:55 am

@rb924119 wrote:Hey Scott, yeah, I definitely think that's a reason, and probably THE reason. Newton's law of physics: An object in motion will remain in motion unless acted upon by an outside force. In this case, the outside force was too late (the trough catching it and phasing in with it). The trick is figuring out WHY that was the reason. Sure we could present arguments for the block to the east not being as strong as modeled, and I'm sure that had something to do with it. But I think there are two other parts to it, as well. The first is that I think the original trough was able to impart enough of a westerly component to its forward motion such that it allowed it to speed up, even after the trough was out of the picture. How? Because by the time the trough departed, Hermine was already embedded in the mid-latititude southwesterly flow, which was partially aided by the trough split (you can go back and see how there was still one H5 contour to the south of the system which shows it was still being steered by that flow until the energy finally caught up to it).

The second, and it's still a hypothesis on my end since I haven't actually looked at it, and it's one that I had from the time the GFS first showed this type of solution, is the direction of the PV gradient. PV, or potential vorticity, is kind of a hard concept to explain, but basically it's similar to "regular" vorticity; the energy we look at at H5. However, it's more of a measure of spin (vorticity) acting "in the background" of H5, and isn't necessarily depicted on the regular H5 maps we look at. PV is a measure, a quantitative description, of how much spin exists in the atmosphere just as a result of the curvature of the Earth in relation to the Earth's rotation; Coriolis. We all know that the Coriolis effect increases as you head toward the Poles. And we know that it's one of the reasons that tropical systems tend to recurve as they enter latitudes above 10 degrees N/S. Another way to describe that process is PV. If you've ever heard of beta drift in tropical systems, it's an explanation of why the systems recurve. Storms that originate in the tropics, essentially originate in areas of very low PV because the Coriolis effect is essentially negligible. However, as the system grows in size and organizes its own rotation in relation the Earth's, it actually experiences small differences in PV from its south side to its north side. The gradient of PV, as with anything, is always directed from low to high. So, using this as a vector, it would slowly exert a weak northward-directed force on the system because higher PV exists on the north side of the system.

Now, expanding this idea, troughs that originate in the mid-latitudes have much higher PV than even the north side of a tropical system. My hypothesis is that once Hermine was influenced by the first trough and became weakly embedded in the southwesterly flow on its eastern side, I think it might have also felt an additional force directed northeastward towards that trough even though it was departing, because of the added influence of the PV gradient. Then, once that trough moved too far, and even though the secondary H5 energy was not completely consolidated to the west, and H5 wasn't closed off yet, I think that because that trough also had a higher PV than Hermine, it allowed it to start slowing down before closing off because of what was then a westward-directed PV gradient.

I think that could be one of the underlying issues with why the models had such a tough time with modeling how far east it would make it, because they underrepresented the strength of the PV gradient associated with the departing trough to the northeast before the secondary energy could start to have a similar effect. Then, once H5 did close off, I think it was just a matter of how intensely and where that was determining the westward extent it could manage to get to based off of those dynamics. Again, I don't know, but that's my thinking, and was my thinking when I first saw this type of solution.

Thanks Ray!  Interesting ideas regarding the potential vorticity discussion.  In my minds eye the way I'm visualizing  it is kind of like a person floating on the surface of the water, and a large boat is sinking beneath him/her.  Initially as the ship sinks the water immediately above the sinking ship is dragged downward bringing the person along with it because they are caught up in the current created by the downward motion of the ship. (Potential Vorticity? associated with the trough lifting out, with Hermine located to the S to SW of the trough base caught in the SW steering flow via pos tilted trough)    However, as the sinking ship accelerates downward away from the swimmer(trough lifts out), assuming the swimmer, can hold their breath long enough, the buoyancy force on the swimmer acts in the opposite direction and eventually breaks him/her away from the downward motion of the water created above the sinking ship.  (Eventual cutoff 500mb mid level low).  Now the swimmer begins ascending back towards the surface via the buoyancy force, (LLC begins to get tugged back west via PV associated with cutoff mid level low which is providing the stronger vector relative to the PV associated with the departing tough).  I may be off some in my ability to convey what I see happening in my minds eye into words but I think I'm getting what your saying.  Good stuff.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:01 am

Ironically I am seeing the worst of Hermine as we speak. Ive had periods of sustained winds between 20-30mph with higher gusts under some of the showers rotating through. I was down at the beach on the N. Shore of LI and the winds are howling and the sound is boiling. High tide mark was Way higher than normal.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 34 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.7326086956521739&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=363.8278931750741&centery=236.58753709198817&transx=-36.17210682492589&transy=-3

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:01 am

11am update nhc central pressure is still 997mb but the windfield is shtinking. Only place left with ts,warning is,eastern li. Back to the general tropics talk. This was quite a learning experience.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:55 am

12z Rgem has .50"-.75"+ for ENJ, NYC and east.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:13 pm

Hermine review. This was a terribly modeled, forecasted, and, ugh just an annoying system overall. Here is my opinion of what happened. Starting in the beginning, it stayed further south than modeled keeping it weak and disorganized, it took longer to gain stregnth and many models busted on its landfall intensity. This is why I believe it went ExTrop faster over land and began picking up speed, its also been sucking in dry air since it made landfall. I believe it ran into the inevitable block well out to sea, then it began to slow down, head NW, now its caught in a loop, and over cool water. It regained its warm core over the very warm gulf stream which explains why it was cloudy and windy when it made its first "closest pass" by Hatteras before going OTS then it tightened back up. Right now, despite the center being many times closer (although also much weaker) it is less windy, hot, and partly cloudy at best. The storm had minimal impacts in our area although I suspect it pushed a little water into LI sound and some eastward facing bays on the south coast. And co-comittantly I expect its a little windy over there too, but frusturatingly nothing for anybody else, it could have provided some brief relief from the heat but no, it goes out way out to that bar in the sketchy east side of town and returns too drunk and weak to be of any help to anyone. It will likely meander in this area for a little while longer, it may move a little further west towards NJ, or even SW like its headed towards MD (but wont make it before getting kicked out) but none of it matters because its dried out and spent. We could have used some rain and relief, but this storm was a total waste. The models did absolutely terribly, hurricane models included, however the US hurricane NAVGEM and surprisingly the stubborn CMC were probably the closest with their solutions of a wide retrograde and weakening storm. Others were too far offshore, way off in general, or way too amped. Current WV loop is abysmal, dry air everywhere, I expect dissipation.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
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Post by Guest Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:59 pm

If a storm is in this position this winter with this little impact I'm going to cry like a little girl and pull my hair out.  The current position is beyond perfection.  Epic actually.  Slow moving unreal, and I've yet to experience a single drop of rain. Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Mad Mad Mad

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Post by frank 638 Tue Sep 06, 2016 3:22 pm

I finally got something out of hermine a nice steady drizzle yessssss lol

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Post by billg315 Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:19 pm

Cloudy and a bit breezy here. Very pleasant afternoon in my book. I do see a rain band on the radar trying to push west toward this area. If so it will be the first rain I've seen from Hermine since the brief shower at my shorehouse Saturday morning.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:42 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Ironically I am seeing the worst of Hermine as we speak.  Ive had periods of sustained winds between 20-30mph with higher gusts under some of the showers rotating through.  I was down at the beach on the N. Shore of LI and the winds are howling and the sound is boiling.  High tide mark was Way higher than normal.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 34 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.7326086956521739&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=363.8278931750741&centery=236.58753709198817&transx=-36.17210682492589&transy=-3

Not really ironic, the center passed pretty close to the south shore of LI before moving SW since then. Since it still has warm core characteristics, as it slowly moved west you were in the worst quadrant. Meanwhile here, it has still been shifting from cloudy to mostly sunny and times of mostly still and some wind. This is telling me its throwing what it has left but its dying and fighting too much dry air. At least someone on this board saw something from this.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:46 pm

@billg315 wrote:Cloudy and a bit breezy here. Very pleasant afternoon in my book. I do see a rain band on the radar trying to push west toward this area. If so it will be the first rain I've seen from Hermine since the brief shower at my shorehouse Saturday morning.

It aint gonna make it. Storm is moving south now it seems and the bands will follow, I live very close to you and its been warm, on and off cloudy, sometimes a little breezy for a break but otherwise nothing of any note. Wish it would push inland into NJ and just die completely winds already light and fairly meaningless but want to get some of those showers. Sadly, the models take it maybe a little further south, completing its slow loop and heading out.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:24 pm

The wind has picked up the most it has been so far. Dark clouds overhead but clear on either side must b band but no rain. It was terribly modeled and let's hope if we do have a real threat that the models are not so bad and it does actually go wcs. Although a lot of people will blow it off but when it comes to the tropics u cant. It's just very unpredictable.
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Post by oldtimer Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:28 pm

Just got home from work and I can tell you I had tropical downpours every two to three minutes. And it was wind driven I drive north from the south of Long Island up to Port Jefferson. Fifteen miles Had to be couple inches. I thought it was Sunday for the moment lol amazing!!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:07 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Just got home from work and I can tell you I had tropical downpours every two to three minutes.  And it was wind driven   I drive north from the south of Long Island up to Port Jefferson. Fifteen miles   Had to be couple inches.  I thought it was Sunday for the moment   lol    amazing!!

Thats odd returns over li are very light right now, unless youre talking about earlier today.
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Post by oldtimer Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:36 pm

NjGuy From 4:45pm to 5:45pm Coming up from Islip north to Port Jefferson Heavy Stuff Very Dark sky

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:27 pm

Looks like some bands trying to rotate in. Pshhh, dumb storm.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

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Post by oldtimer Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:47 pm

Frank The remnants of that seems so far south?/

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