NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:34 pm

Almost Time


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by chief7 Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:46 pm

can't wait to read the winter Outlook sitting at the computer and having a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup that I confiscated from my sons trick or treat bag

chief7

Posts : 116
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-11-10
Location : Langhorne pa

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:50 pm

@chief7 wrote:can't wait to read the winter Outlook sitting at the computer and having a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup that I confiscated from my sons trick or treat bag

Unfortunately, I have to ban you. I work for Mars Chocolate (M&M company) and can not associate with Hershey lovers.

Alright fine, won't ban you. Consider a Snickers bar next time.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:17 pm

Ha. Love it Frank. One of these days you'll put a Frankzilla on the preview as well.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Isotherm Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:55 pm

Bullish with that release date, Frank. I like the confidence. I'm thinking more toward the second week of November for me. Should be a fun winter to forecast given ENSO is weaker. As a consequence of which, I expect that we'll see much more divergence in the totality of LR outlooks on the blogosphere/internet this autumn.

Looking forward to reading it, and if anyone else plans to release one. It's a challenging, yet, concurrently, quite enjoyable task.

Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 231
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 30
Location : Monmouth County, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:43 pm

Frank, very dramatic - showed it to my weather club student today about 40 minutes ago and they were all like woahhh, what's Godzilla, Frankzilla??

Looking forward to it and the complexity will be clearer than last winter overall. Not getting the QBO but hopefully it will do us good.

Isotherm, looking forward to yours as well as paul's from PSU - I will be sitting next to my fireplace and a merriam-webster dictionary deciphering your vocabulary its context!!
I'll have one on my site about the same time- need teh teachers convention to complete it. Will be fun!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12139
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Vinnydula Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:00 pm

Top of trees starting to get color up here
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 770
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:53 pm

Bill Goodman at our NJWO meeting last night (he is from the Upton post) last night there is a lot of warmth from the Davis Straits to Greenland as indicated by the latest SST maps, and a cold pool south of Iceland, which, if it held up, would support a west-based -NAO. One cans ee here:

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Globe_11



Interesting. Gave us a preliminary winter outlook and says that we have factors to look at:

ENSO - Equatorial pacific water  
    Cold/Warm
IO - Indian Ocean but did not say much other than it affects the MJO and it much cooler actually in a cold state
AMO - tripole of the Atlantic (not in harmony cold NA, Warm Mid and cool equatorial)
SST (Sea Surface Temperatures - Pacific and Atlantic)
     -/+ PDO
SAI (Snow Advance Index)/Siberian Snow at latitude 60N and above - for AO
QBO - he and I had a talk afterwards with this and even he said I do not know too much about this
Upper Air Pattern
   -/+ AO and NAO
Said in a nut shell he says a Neutral ENSO, +PDO, possibly a negative AO and NAO overall for winter (if he weer to make a prediction right now) and that we'll see a backloaded winter mid to late Jan flip of the switch to cold and snowy through about mid March.

If all holds together thinks we could possibly see some decent storms In Feb and March - quantify decent I asked - he said Winter Storm Warning types.

CPC - only uses ENSO to make their predictions is what he said so talk it with a grain of salt

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12139
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:41 pm

whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2923
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:27 pm

The entire world is on Fire!!!! Jamstec

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Temp2.glob.SON2016.1sep2016

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Temp2.glob.DJF2017.1sep2016

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12139
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:46 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?

No idea. Found it on YouTube

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:17 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?

No idea. Found it on YouTube

great choice as always!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2923
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:34 pm

SST - this doesnt add up to the temp profile above

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Ssta.glob.DJF2017.1sep2016

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12139
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:55 pm

Can't wait to track winter storms but it's just to far off for me to get eager yet. I'm still tracking tropics lol. I'll get to winter tracking in nov dec. Long range is so unpredictable but I am very interested to see if frank thinks as per his video we may see Godzilla or roids this winter.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?

No idea. Found it on YouTube
quite the computer wiz websites pretty professional youtube videos. Franks a master!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by HectorO Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Can't wait to track winter storms but it's just to far off for me to get eager yet. I'm still tracking tropics lol. I'll get to winter tracking in nov dec. Long range is so unpredictable but I am very interested to see if frank thinks as per his video we may see Godzilla or roids this winter.

Ha, yea no kidding. A 4 day forecast is hard to be accurate with, a whole season is damn near impossible to predict.
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 917
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview Empty Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum