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HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:40 pm

Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:44 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Hearing blocking has fizzled out on latest runs
Yes skins. Pna neutral and nao positive doesn't call for a very Amplified pattern which we will need if you're looking for a Sandy type event

Euro showing just this and bombs out over Cuba and is turning north interesting run here


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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:52 pm

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f228.png
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:55 pm

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f234.png
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:56 pm

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f240.png

Trough coming in fast. WOW.
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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:00 pm

There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:03 pm

@algae888 wrote:There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.

Why not? The trough is about to come down and swoop that up.
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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:03 pm

The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:07 pm

@algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida

Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:08 pm

@Snow88 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.

Why not? The trough is about to come down and swoop that up.
Correct. I said a direct hit. As per 12z euro setup i do think it hits somewhere along the Florida coast and rides up the coast making landfall again in the Carolinas and by the time it reaches us it would lose much of its strength. It either gets captured well south of us or will curve out to sea if the trough is Progressive. Again as per this euro run there would be no Sandy like capture into our area
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Post by hyde345 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.

Why would you think GFS is winning out? The storm has to turn north eventually. Its still a long way to go and Euro and GFS are far apart at hour 240.
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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:17 pm

@Snow88 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida

Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
Yes and the gfs always to fast. The euro has been consistant with soon to be Matthew heading southwest (at hr 72-96 12z today) before making the turn. A compromise between the two models looks to be the worst case scenario where matthew gains lat as the trough tries a capture. Still plenty of runs to go
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:32 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida

Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
Yes and the gfs always to fast. The euro has been consistant with soon to be Matthew heading southwest (at hr 72-96 12z today) before making the turn. A compromise between the two models looks to be the worst case scenario where matthew gains lat as the trough tries a capture. Still plenty of runs to go

Do you feel the Euro is too slow? I mean if it were to hit our area at the speed its going we arent looking until the following week probably.  The GFS however may be too fast?  And I dunno why I said the Euro was getting tromped by GFS, cuz I saw a turn to the north but its still not same track so NVM. WCS for who Al?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:33 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.

Why would you think GFS is winning out? The storm has to turn north eventually. Its still a long way to go and Euro and GFS are far apart at hour 240.
Yeah spoke too soon, still Euro is a bit east of the 00z. Negligible though. Still way to much time, and they are so far apart in speed.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:36 pm

Woah 174 kt gusts!

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 174_kt10
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:39 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Ecmwf_11

This would be bad for Florida.....

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:40 pm

Euro is faster than 00z its markedly N and maybe a bit east too, right off coast of Fl at 240 hrs vs down by cuba at 240 on 00z. 934mb and wind gusts to 132kts, my family down there would be crushed. I think this would ride coast and we would still see at least TS conditions, looks bit like Irene.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 132kt_10
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:51 pm

Recon still finding no closed circulation. No Mathew Yet.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:12 pm

You can clearly see that between 48 and 72hrs is when we start to see the GFS and Euro differ. GFS slight more north and stronger, and Euro still weaker and further south. Cant wait to see the euro ensembles.

Hr 24 and 48 you can see position and strength of the system, atlantic ridge, Deep Layer trough all about the same.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500a_watl_2
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_watl_5

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500a_watl_3
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_watl_9

Hr 72:

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500a_watl_4
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_watl_13

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:14 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 2 Recon_AF303-01FFA-INVEST

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:27 pm

Bernie's latest thoughts:

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/experts/video/2430839568001/bernie-rayno-s-video-blog?autoStart=true
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Post by jake732 Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:42 pm

What I really love about Bernie is he gets u back to reality before getting to excited. Instead of thinking it will head up the east coast he lays out the best solution. Let's all calm down about the gfs as we know it BS. GFS= Gullible forecast storm
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Post by jake732 Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:48 pm

Or GFS= gullible fantasy storm
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Post by Snow88 Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:53 pm

^ How do we know GFS is bullshit? The storm is a long time away.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:01 pm

Oh Boy-My in-laws are leaving for their cruise to Bermuda on Saturday...oh boy...
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