HURRICANE MATTHEW

Ensembles are still west of Operationals.

sroc4 wrote:Ensembles are still west of Operationals.  

so does that tell us anything? Msybe euro go even more west. If it does it will make landfall in fl or se if similar track to 12z but more west. When do u think u will start to become more certain or is that even too hard to tell now?

It tells me that in no way have we seen the final soln.  There are too many working parts to think the LR is nailed down.  It will become more certain when it becomes more certain.  My guess is we will need to wait until at least Sunday 12z- Monday 00z. If I feel strong about it before then I will def do a write as to why. Im sure Frank will do the same.

im very confused to as y most models are showing ots. i thought euro was up the golf and who knows after that? now all are ots?

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Did you guys see how close matthew was to a capture though before going OTS, Why is the ridge on the GFS and not so much the Euro.  Disagreement on that is a big deal.

Jman that's a neutral to slightly positive tilted trough on the GFS it would push Matthew out to sea. The trough needs to be negative to pull him back. all the guidance today has the trough lifting North into Canada, weakening or staying positive. Can this change absolutely but the trends were not good today 4 landfall on East Coast hurricane

your right, goes to show u do not listen to non-pros got this from another forum.  I lurk you guys are the only ones I talk to and a chat that is full of a lot of BS.

I am going to advise again to not set anything in stone. Pattern evolution is still occurring, as we have already seen in the past 24 hours or so. These solutions may not exist in another 24 hours as pieces adjust past day 5.

Hey..thanks for the info and I hope school is going well?!!

QuietAce said it here and if we have straight out opinions (such as this is ots, or it is going to be a direct hit)without any meteorological info to show this please keep it in the Wx Banter thread.

Questions are fine of course -going forward lets keep to this. It will also unclog the back n forth that can happen.

As Matthew get's closer in time this thread will be very active.

Scenarios are varied as per model runs.

BTW looks like GFS the NHC latest cone of track



It should be
noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
for initializing the numerical models. It is hoped that these
additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
runs.

Model runs will cause weenie suicide here, from what I have I read models will be wacky tonight with this ingested info. 6Z/12Z runs will be smoother.

amugs wrote:QuietAce said it here and if we have straight out opinions (such as this is ots, or it is going to be a direct hit)without any meteorological info to show this please keep it in the Wx Banter thread.

Questions are fine of course -going forward lets keep to this. It will also unclog the back n forth that can happen.

As Matthew get's closer in time this thread will be very active.

Scenarios are varied as per model runs.

BTW looks like GFS the NHC latest cone of track



It should be
noted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic
surveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew
for initializing the numerical models.  It is hoped that these
additional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model
runs.

Model runs will cause weenie suicide here, from what I have I read models will be wacky tonight with this ingested info. 6Z/12Z runs will be smoother.

Right so if it shows a hit people will be going crazy if it shows a ots and people will jump. But remember it's wacky

let me ask a question..what would you say to someone going on a cruise to bermuda next week? (if this should be banter let me know and I will delete or you can move..)tx

Comparing 12z GFS with 18z GFS:

1. Valid 18z Wednesday the 5th, Matthew is in the same location on both runs 100 or so miles east of South Carolina. The 18z GFS may be a tad south and east, but negligible differences. 

2. Valid same time stamp, the 18z GFS still has ULL influence over the Northeast while the 12z killed the ULL and had a strong High NW of NY state. This could be one reason why the 18z GFS is slightly south and east compared to the 12z run.

3. Forward to 06z Thursday, and it becomes more obvious the 12z GFS had Matthew closer to the coast while the 18z GFS is well east. The 18z GFS STILL has the ULL over the Northeast while the 12z GFS has a clear path due north as the WAR and High to the north meet. 

4. Midwest trough is sharper on the 12z GFS too.

So, the upper air features are going to change run to run which will dictate the path Matthew takes. Long way to go.

jake732 wrote:im very confused to as y most models are showing ots. i thought euro was up the golf and who knows after that? now all are ots?

Yes, all our OTS and we will not have an idea until Monday of next week. Watching every model run that comes in between now and then may drive you insane. The upper air features, namely the Midwest trough, Northeast upper level low, south-canadian High, and WAR (west Atlantic ridge)...will continue shifting and altering intensity every model run which will drastically change Matthew's storm track. There is no sense in taking any one model seriously until they come to an agreement on how the aforementioned upper air features play out.

weatherwatchermom wrote:let me ask a question..what would you say to someone going on a cruise to bermuda next week? (if this should be banter let me know and I will delete or you can move..)tx

Someone else on this forum reached out to me in private about a cruise to Bermuda next week too. I wonder if it's the same person

At this time, I would say it's too early. If the ship is over the ocean on Wednesday-Friday next week then I think that could be a problem. Hopefully it is docked at Bermuda by then.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Right no alarms to be made yet our way. The upper air pattern changes constantly. A lot of players in the field and they are always changing.

What I bolded is key.

algae888 wrote: models coming in agreement now that Matthew will head out to sea. Cmc euro and ukie gefs. If anyone wants to believe the GFS operational do so at your own peril

algae888 wrote:I should add things could change nothing is written in stone at this point but the trends are not good if you want the landfallgin Hurricane along the east coast

Trends in relation to the tropics are irrelevant. Like I said last night, Hermine was supposed to take a hard left and ended up well east. Models struggled within 48 hours. Trends in the tropics can only be used for certain upper atmospheric features, not storm track itself.

hyde345 wrote:

algae888 wrote: models coming in agreement now that Matthew will head out to sea. Cmc euro and ukie gefs. If anyone wants to believe the GFS operational do so at your own peril

I agree. OTS is the most likely scenario although not guaranteed this far out. I bet the 18z GFS backs away from a land falling hurricane.

How much $$ you bet? You won.

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:let me ask a question..what would you say to someone going on a cruise to bermuda next week? (if this should be banter let me know and I will delete or you can move..)tx

Someone else on this forum reached out to me in private about a cruise to Bermuda next week too. I wonder if it's the same person

At this time, I would say it's too early. If the ship is over the ocean on Wednesday-Friday next week then I think that could be a problem. Hopefully it is docked at Bermuda by then.

Tx Frank...I will pass along to my inlaws...

We are all going to die!!

So whats up with this cane? too bad it's not 20 degrees and get a direct hit, wow.

sroc4 wrote:It tells me that in no way have we seen the final soln.  There are too many working parts to think the LR is nailed down.  It will become more certain when it becomes more certain.  My guess is we will need to wait until at least Sunday 12z- Monday 00z.  If I feel strong about it before then I will def do a write as to why.  Im sure Frank will do the same.  

Yup.

Go ahead and judge me, but I have a thought (or two) about this storm lol although done for fun, this is also a serious matter. I say it in my write up, but I'll advertise it here as well: THIS IS ONLY A PRELIMINARY GUESS AS TO WHAT I AM THINKING ABOUT MATTHEW, AND AS HAS BEEN STATED MANY TIMES ALREADY, NOTHING IS SET IN STONE! THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO PLEASE PLEASE PLEASEEEEEE TAKE THIS WITH A 5LB BAG OF MORTON'S. I just felt strongly enough to do this, but in no way is this even close to a final call. I mainly just wanted to get this out here and generate discussion. See next post!

Hurricane Matthew is quickly becoming an increasingly popular topic of conversation, and will likely continue to do so through the next several days. Already a hurricane, Matthew is anticipated to continue to strengthen, even though minor setbacks within the next 24 hours, and then again in a few days when it is projected to cross over the very mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba are expected. While the intensity of the storm is certainly of concern, this graphic was made to only express MY thoughts on where I can see this system headed in the longer term.

To start, the red shading indicates my, and most guidance’s, cone of uncertainty. Note, however, the deeper shading off of the Carolina/southern Mid-Atlantic coastline – this is where I see the divergence in outcomes for this system. The dashed white line is the track that I am thinking Matthew will be most likely to take, with the green and blue solid lines denoting the two possibilities that I foresee.

I think the EURO is playing the Atlantic ridging more accurately in the sense that it will depart later than the GFS is showing. As has been the case all summer, this ridge has been stubborn, and likely influenced by the extremely warm waters of the western Atlantic. I see no reason to change my thinking on that up to this point. That said, this should allow Matthew to continue westward longer than what the GFS suggests (yes, I agree with the EURO here). As you can see, I am thinking that Matthew either clips western Jamaica or barely skirts by it to the west before it takes Cuba head on. Once it gets into the Bahamas, this is where things become interesting. Obviously there is going to be a weak trough that develops and swings through the northern Gulf of Mexico. It is at this point that I believe Matthew will feel the strongest effects from that trough. Earlier on, I didn’t think that it would be too deep, but given trends on all guidance, it will be deeper than I initially thought, and will have a larger impact than my original thinking. I do think that it will allow a pseudo-capture to occur as it drifts further south into the Gulf of Mexico, which is reflected in the white, dashed track on the map. While in the Bahamas, it will turn fairly abruptly toward the northwest, and either head towards or parallel the east coast of Florida. The reason I see this is because once Matthew emerges on the northern side of Cuba, it should rapidly intensify for three reasons: The first is that it is a known fact that upper-level troughs on the northwestern side of tropical systems help to ventilate the system, and maximize upper-level divergence (aids with the northern outflow channel, as well as in general synoptic ascent). The second reason is that the water is incredibly warm and should allow a rapid W.I.S.H.E. feedback process to start. Lastly, shear should be minimized. Because I am expecting it to rapidly intensify, by default I am expecting it to slow down, as is a common occurrence for rapidly intensifying systems. Since it will be slowing down, it should allow it to also be influenced by a PV gradient and steering flow from the southeast once it becomes close enough to the upper-level. However, it will also fight this off because the trough is too weak to fully capture it, which is why I expect it to then begin recurving to the northeast, as it typically would.

Once it gets offshore of the Carolinas, and maybe as far north as the Virginia coast, this is where I see two options; it either hooks back into the mainland U.S. or slows considerably and then heads out to sea. I have been stuck on this idea for days, and I know Scott (sroc) and myself were discussing it the other day. “Track 1” (green), would occur IF, AND ONLY IF, a deep trough projected to enter the western U.S. can remain deep as it crosses the States and then begin to tilt negative, just like what happened with Sandy, so it captures Matthew and turns it back into the coast. However, unlike Sandy, even if this does happen, I do not expect nearly the same outcome. Instead, I feel that this system would take an interior track to our west, with rain and possibly tropical-storm like winds as it falls apart and gets sheared out by the fast southwesterly flow. The second option (“Track 2” (blue), involves the pesky trough that has already been giving us unsettled weather, and will continue to do so through the beginning of next week. As this lifts out, to me, there is a strong signal for a trough split in both the ensembles and operationals. We have already seen a trend towards that in the operational runs, but in my opinion, the models are struggling with just how far it will be able to get with that remnant energy. Based on what I saw with Hermine, and in other cases this summer, I am expecting that it will start dropping further southward in future runs, as we get closer in time to the event. This will do two things: The first, is that it will allow a closed mid- and upper-level ridge to redevelop to the north of it over eastern North America. In turn, this will allow the energy to be driven further south and interact with Matthew, similar to, BUT NOT EXACTLY LIKE, what happened with Hermine. The second thing it will do, is allow Matthew to slow down again, as the energies try to consolidate and the easterly or northeasterly flow from the ridge impedes its progress. Unlike the situation with Hermine, however, I do not think a full retrograde will happen. Instead, I think that by the time the energies start to consolidate and pivot around each other, and the ridge exerts enough easterly flow to begin to steer the slowing Matthew, the trough coming through the U.S. will be progressive, yet deep enough to build a small ridge in behind Matthew and nudge it out to sea (along with general wavelength spacing).

Although we are not being given too much leeway with this system in terms of a repeat of Sandy-like effects, I do not think that the setup is conducive for such a pattern to evolve, nor do I think a track along the length of the East coast is going to happen either. The flow in the eastern Pacific is just too progressive, and does not become amplified in time to allow the trough to remain deep enough as it tilts negative to capture Matthew. I’m sure you’re wondering where I stand on this, and although I openly admit that it is lunacy to make a prediction for anything beyond the Bahamas, I strongly feel that although it will have interaction with the remnant energy of the current cut off that splits off, it will be shunted offshore. Obviously this can still change, and to expect no changes is also lunacy, but I’m just not seeing much of an impact other than rough surf, clouds and maybe a breeze with showers from this as some of the moisture is drawn along the frontal boundary AT THIS POINT. Hopefully this wasn’t too lengthy or in depth, but I hope it demonstrates my current thinking. Discuss!!!!

Im on pins and needles Ray in anticipation

Nice write up Ray.  I cant argue any of it at this stage.  We will cont to hurry up and wait for it to enter phase 2..."The Turn"

Ray,

Nice write up. You lay out your thought's beautifully and logically. I have a few questions:

1. Your green track suggests the trough over the Midwest will capture Matthew and hook him west into NC/VA. I would argue timing between the Midwest trough, and the latitude at which Matthews reaches, will decide where the hook left and ultimately his landfall will be. How can you be so sure the capture happens at that point?

2. I think another outcome could be a track up the eastern seaboard without the capture of the Midwest trough. There will definitely be an initial capture in the Gulf, which will turn Matthew north-northwest, but depending on the location and intensity of the WAR, where the ULL is, and where the High positions itself, I think those pieces could align to lead Matthew right up the coast since he'll have no choice. Similiar to Irene, see below:




3. I agree with you I do not see Sandy-like effects with Matthew, just yet at least. I think the upper air features are more complex and fluid, meaning there are more features to pay attention to than we had with Sandy. There may be similarities with the hook left, but that's about it.

4. The west-midwest trough seems to take awhile to eject east. However, the Pacific flow looks fairly zonal so I was curious about your thought's why it may be that way?

18z gefs have quite a few heavy hitters
Where can u see each individual member alone like the stamps? Am I correct in saying this judging by low location map on tt.

jmanley32 wrote:18z gegs have quite a few heavy hitters
Where can u see each individual member alone like the stamps? Am I correct in saying this judging by low location map on tt.

Yup, judging by the mean there must be some heavy hitters. The 18z GEFS mean may be better than the 12z honestly.



The indies you can find on WeatherBell I believe. Also here:

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/indexgefs.html

This website is formed by a Meteorologist named Doug I have known for a few years on another board. Very knowledgeable, good guy.

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:let me ask a question..what would you say to someone going on a cruise to bermuda next week? (if this should be banter let me know and I will delete or you can move..)tx

Someone else on this forum reached out to me in private about a cruise to Bermuda next week too. I wonder if it's the same person

At this time, I would say it's too early. If the ship is over the ocean on Wednesday-Friday next week then I think that could be a problem. Hopefully it is docked at Bermuda by then.

No, there are two of us going apparently!!!

Angela0621 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:let me ask a question..what would you say to someone going on a cruise to bermuda next week? (if this should be banter let me know and I will delete or you can move..)tx

Someone else on this forum reached out to me in private about a cruise to Bermuda next week too. I wonder if it's the same person

At this time, I would say it's too early. If the ship is over the ocean on Wednesday-Friday next week then I think that could be a problem. Hopefully it is docked at Bermuda by then.

No, there are two of us going apparently!!!

Can one of you two start a thread in the Vacation Weather section of the forum? I will provide updates for you in that thread.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/f15-vacation-weather

All I hope is this...like I do with all storms... I hope I wake up Monday morning(I have off from work) and this thread has gone from 20 pages to 40 pages. I love when this board explodes. When everyone posts 20 messages a minute Or what JMAN would call a normal day. I need a storm that makes our mouth water. That is all I hope.

Very warm water and limited shear south of Cuba. Once Matthew gets there, he could really explode.

As of 8pm: 75mph / 987mb. That's a 6mb drop from the last advisory. Latest recon pass confirms an eye wall has started to form.