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HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Sanchize06
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Joe Snow
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:38 pm

very funny dev, no rules on how much you can post lol, albeit maybe i do post too much but nothing bad about being enthusiastic. I bet come Monday people will be posting more than me, mainly cuz I have a very busy week, beginning of the month at work is always the worst (stinks cuz I would rather be tracking lol). wow nutley that is a big drop and the models showing 979 tomorrow morning is probably not far off. This is really deepening fast and is now progged to be a cat 2 sooner and stay so through cuba.
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:47 pm

Navy again anyone

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 IMG_0332.JPG.2395d281ed112ce5a1f94b8dee0fbb86

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:54 pm

@amugs wrote:Navy again anyone

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 IMG_0332.JPG.2395d281ed112ce5a1f94b8dee0fbb86
Anyone saying OTS is the best answer should stop, they are saying that all over the web.  But I will also be cautious to stop saying that any one model is right.  We will obviously have windshield wiper effect through at least part if not all of the weekend.  If things look dire on Monday we have near 5 ays to prepare, maybe more depending on speed.  Cannot wait to see where this decides to turn and then how far west it gets and if the WAR is very strong as it was on 18z GFS operational.

Where would this continue, to the N or NE?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:56 pm

Woah just watched it last frame starts a retrograde, isnt the NAVGEM a pretty bad model though? Not far off from GFS or Euro operationals through until that split in the road rb so well posted.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:58 pm

Even without a landfall look at the 850mb winds, not even close yet and giving strong TS force winds.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Navgem11
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Woah just watched it last frame starts a retrograde, isnt the NAVGEM a pretty bad model though? Not far off from GFS or Euro operationals through until that split in the road rb so well posted.

They have ALL been pretty bad models as of late. ;-)

Sometimes things get sniffed out by the presumable underdogs though.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:29 pm

Well the 12z NAVGEM Def scary run if it continued looks like it hooks into nyc area. Hmm didn't the gfs do that? Far from a solution.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:32 pm

Check out this recon. Will be digested by the models over the next few runs.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Recon_NOAA9-0514A-MATTHEW

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Post by rb924119 Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Ray,

Nice write up. You lay out your thought's beautifully and logically. I have a few questions:

1. Your green track suggests the trough over the Midwest will capture Matthew and hook him west into NC/VA. I would argue timing between the Midwest trough, and the latitude at which Matthews reaches, will decide where the hook left and ultimately his landfall will be. How can you be so sure the capture happens at that point?

Thanks, Frank!

So, maybe I didn't make it clear enough in the write up; if that track ends up being the outcome, I don't think it would be a full capture, only partial. This is largely based on the fact that the trough will already be lifting out thanks to the progressive pattern (assuming present modeling holds), so although it will initially be drawn inward toward the coast as it feels the effects of the trough, I think that the flow, and the storm itself would become too sheared out too quickly to complete a full rotation back to the west and eventually southwest, as would be expected in a true capture. I think it would turn northwest but then become elongated pretty quickly. For more explanation, see the response to your last question haha

@Frank_Wx wrote:2. I think another outcome could be a track up the eastern seaboard without the capture of the Midwest trough. There will definitely be an initial capture in the Gulf, which will turn Matthew north-northwest, but depending on the location and intensity of the WAR, where the ULL is, and where the High positions itself, I think those pieces could align to lead Matthew right up the coast since he'll have no choice. Similiar to Irene, see below:

I definitely agree that an alley does exist up the east coast. The set up, even though it's murky, could definitely support something like that. I left it out because it's a track that I personally just don't have much confidence in at this point. It's definitely a possibility, and one that needs to be watched, but it's just not one that I think will be the outcome. Personal choice haha


@Frank_Wx wrote:3. I agree with you I do not see Sandy-like effects with Matthew, just yet at least. I think the upper air features are more complex and fluid, meaning there are more features to pay attention to than we had with Sandy. There may be similarities with the hook left, but that's about it.

I think the best example of the fluidity of this setup versus Sandy is the evolution of the remnant energy of the cutoff trough in the northern Atlantic, as well as the whole flow of the eastern Pacific. With Sandy, there was a nice, amplified pattern almost from the central Pacific all the way to western Europe.

@Frank_Wx wrote:4. The west-midwest trough seems to take awhile to eject east. However, the Pacific flow looks fairly zonal so I was curious about your thought's why it may be that way?

I think, and this is only a hypothesis, that it takes that long because of what's currently being modeled in the western Atlantic. There is already an anomalous ridge over eastern North America, even right now. As the cutoff low eventually emerges from beneath it, the trough is very deep as it enters the West Coast, which promotes more ridging in the East. Amplification of a second trough in northwestern Canada also helps to tip the scales and really promote the ridge growth. However, amplification to this degree can only be built so much before it becomes so unstable that something gives. In this case, and again as modeling stands now, the eastern ridge is the piece that gives. When the western trough gets fully over the PNA region in combination with the trough to its north, its enough of a push to force the ridge in the East to wave break over top of the ejecting cut off, which is why I feel the trough split will occur. Once it becomes separated from the main flow, this is where things get interesting and the uncertainty with where a possible capture could take place. In today's operational GEM and EURO runs, the split energy actually balls up and forms a second cutoff beneath the ridge (not easily seen to be supported by any ensemble....yet lol). This is actually a pseudo Rex Block ("pseudo" because it's brief), which is very difficult to break down. Add to that all of the diabatic heating (latent heat release) being fed into the ridge from the hurricane to the south-southwest, and that just continues to reinforce the ridge over eastern North America. So even though the Pacific is very progressive, the positive feedback loop of the pseudo Rex Block and reinforcement from the heat release of the hurricane, the ridge is continuously reinforced almost in place. Then as the cutoff opens back up, and the hurricane comes northward, the ridge has to start repositioning itself further east, which allows the trough to finally start advancing. However, because the ridge is acting as a block, the energy from the trough has to go somewhere because the eastern Pacific is so progressive, so it ends up going up and over the ridge which is why the trough gets shallower and finally goes negative while Matthew is off the Carolina coast. This is also why I feel if there is going to be any semblance of a capture, it would be there because that would be area where the two features are the closest together.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:46 pm

After analyzing latest guidance, it seems most are trending towards a recurve. However, lets not let our guard down of course, he looks good down there and a few still hint at a hit like the NAV before the run ends and some ens members. Of course, the upper air pattern is still suspect and timing is important. But Im beginning to think a recurve after OBX is the most likely solution, but lots of time left yet.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:30 am

GFS kicks it OTS after Hatteras
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:36 am

^ Felt that coming soon as it started turning northeast.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:45 am

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144
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Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:56 am

CMC stalls the storm out down south and erodes it. Models are not good tonight.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:17 am

Looks like the GEFS mean is further northwest than the OP
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:49 am

Hurricane Matthew is now a CAT 2, per NHC—"rapidly strengthening" & packing winds of 100mph
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:20 am

Matthew is go b full of surprises wow cat 2 already now progged b a major up to its 1st landfall. Let's not let the models make the end all yet.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:09 am

Euro was also OTS, we will have to see if this becomes the trend, woke up unexpectedly figured I would check as i had a feeling it would blow up over night. Back to bed, will see what 06z does.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:23 am

Wow

HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew
during the past few hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern
eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt
from the SFMR instrument. In addition, the central pressure has
fallen to 979 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 85 kt. This also requires significant changes to the
intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major
hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours. It
is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the
revised forecast could be conservative.


There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous
regular advisory.

It should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the
aircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the
tropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance
over the southern semicircle. Based on this, no warnings are
required for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time. A warning
might be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center
moves to the south of the forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:08 am

At this time, all major global models keep Matthew out to sea. There are 2 primary reasons for that:

1. The ULL over the northeast lingers and prevents the ridge from amplifying. The ridge over the northeast and WAR would create a path for Matthew to come up the coast. But the ULL, upper level low, is encouraging low heights.

2. The trough coming in from the west is trending weaker. Prior model runs had this trough digging as far south as Texas, turning slightly negative at one point too. Latest GFS shows a deamlified trough that quickly passes through the northern section of the country.

Lots of time left for change to happen. We'll have a better idea by Monday.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:10 am

Good because all honestly I don't want this storm up here enough damage and still recovering from Sandy keep it OTS!!!!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:17 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:At this time, all major global models keep Matthew out to sea. There are 2 primary reasons for that:

1. The ULL over the northeast lingers and prevents the ridge from amplifying. The ridge over the northeast and WAR would create a path for Matthew to come up the coast. But the ULL, upper level low, is encouraging low heights.

2. The trough coming in from the west is trending weaker. Prior model runs had this trough digging as far south as Texas, turning slightly negative at one point too. Latest GFS shows a deamlified trough that quickly passes through the northern section of the country.

Lots of time left for change to happen. We'll have a better idea by Monday.
Nobody should let their guards down. Matthew is still at least 7 days away from any potential threat to the east coast. Very changeable upper air pattern. Still a lot of model watching to go.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:32 am

Intensity has been under modeled by all modeling thus far. Movement is now SW.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Rbtop-animated

Steering is all pointing SW at all levels:

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Wg8dlm1
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Wg8dlm2
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Wg8dlm3
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Wg8dlm4
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Wg8dlm5

The stronger the system the higher up in the atmosphere the steering currents will affect a system. This image gives you the general rule about it
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Steering%20layer%20versus%20intensity

Notice steering winds at all layers is SW. The forecast is to turn the system north in the next 24 to 36hrs. We will see how far S and W the system gets before the turn. Sothern and Western side of the current forecast cone is likely based on current observations. We shall see about timing as well.
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 084853W5_NL_sm

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:36 am

So far minimum pressure recorded by current recon is down to 966mb and flight level wind speeds over 90kts. Recon just getting started however.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Recon_AF306-0714A-MATTHEW_zoom
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 17 Recon_AF306-0714A-MATTHEW

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:55 am

971mb
105mph
WSW at 14mph
#Matthew 8am

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