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HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Sanchize06
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:37 am

CMC slams Maine . Storm comes all the way west from the ocean. After the storm leaves, the 850 line shows up lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 am

Impacts from 174 to 198 hrs for our area, wow, that will cause some problems to say the least. I can easily see hurricane force winds if thi run played out like bastardi said, so the trough was not a capture but a phase instead?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 am

Good wind maps come out in 10 minutes

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Good wind maps come out in 10 minutes
I will post the ones from wxbell. Isn't it possible like I said b4 though that it could be stronger than modeled?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:41 am

These were 18z 925mb winds...00z shuld be out soon.


HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 29 Capture.PNG.9beba4b429d589a0a8906b2650fdfce4

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

strong cat 1 off carolinas. 81.1 kts surface winds, not gusts.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

00z CMC

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 29 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f186

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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

CMC

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f186.png?1364096147
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

Stu Ostro replying to Joe Bastardi (and I was JUST thinking this same thing a few min ago):

"On last couple runs of GFS it's as if the hurricane knows where the coastline is and wants to follow it"

We're going to be tracking Matthew for awhile and possibly talking ABOUT him for a long time after that.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:43 am

00z UKIE (only goes out this far)

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 29 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:43 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:These were 18z 925mb winds...00z shuld be out soon.


HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 29 Capture.PNG.9beba4b429d589a0a8906b2650fdfce4

Jeeze those sustained, so 70mph sustained in NYC area! Capr cod over 100mph dayumm.
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:46 am

This run is even scarier if you look at the Hi-res GFS for purpose of intensity, 945 mb off the Jersey Shore

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:46 am

That GFS track looks like an Irene and a Floyd track. All similar.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:46 am

Where do those wind maps you have come from frank, I like them somewhat better than wxbell.
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:47 am

To evacuate that many people from the Florida coast to Maine would be mind boggling should that run unfold.
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:47 am

The GFS is putting on the "big squeeze play" by forcing the system up the coast.
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Post by Joe Snow Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:48 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:This run is even scarier if you look at the Hi-res GFS for purpose of intensity, 945 mb off the Jersey Shore

And to think that it initialized 60 mb to high
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:48 am

GFS now comes back west and CMC showing a sharp turn phase back into Maine. With timing issues, that turn could occur further south, or eventually may trend back to a more realistic GFS like solution, but as it comes towards the Bahamas we should expect a better idea on track. Until then, expect more restless nights.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:49 am

@Joe Snow wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:This run is even scarier if you look at the Hi-res GFS for purpose of intensity, 945 mb off the Jersey Shore

And to think that it initialized 60 mb to high

This may also in turn show the winds lower than actual intensity. Yikes, cuz they are pretty darn high as it is.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:49 am

An important thing to note is the models are struggling with Matthews current intensity. This may have big implications downstream.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:50 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Where do those wind maps you have come from frank, I like them somewhat better than wxbell.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:51 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 29 Capture.thumb.PNG.e2be57bfb835e50346e6338c66012dd9

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:52 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Where do those wind maps you have come from frank, I like them somewhat better than wxbell.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
GFS only shows out to 165, is it still loading?
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:52 am

That coastal front that the GFS portrays is very eerily similar to Floyd and Irene.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:54 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 29 Capture.thumb.PNG.e2be57bfb835e50346e6338c66012dd9
Thats not at landfall, thats well before.
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